Player Props

Unfortunately, Bodog is the only place I have seen extensive player props online. These have been quite profitable to me in the past. The trick is finding lines that will see action. Hitters must appear in 130 games, starters must make 25 starts, and relievers must not go on the DL in order for there to be action. All lines are set at -115/-115 unless noted. Also, I recorded these on Sunday and I don't feel like going back to update a 15 cent move here or there.

I took the composite projections compiled by mlb.com's Cory Schwartz (here). From there, I subtracted the Bodog line. I took the absolute value of the difference and found the percent difference from the line. The highest percentages will offer the best value.

Here is the spreadsheet with tabs for each stat offered. Below is some brief commentary:


Batting Average- This is a tricky one for me to bet because of all the randomness that comes from batting average. That being said, bettors are pretty much following the projections on the best plays. I really like Carlos Santana over .267.

Homers- Again, bettors are doing a good job. John Buck under 19.5 is a good play in my opinion as he leaves Toronto, a great hitting environment. I wouldn't touch the Jose Bautista line- I think the power is for real.

RBI- There is a ton of value in these lines. Bodog's numbers seem high in some cases and the projections seem a little low in others. I would avoid A-Rod, I think he's due for a big season. The best values to me are Loney, Choo, and Tulowitzki under. Choo and Tulo are both very good but those are optimistic numbers. Loney is one of the most overrated players in the game.

SB- Don't touch Coco Crisp. The projections must not account for playing time or factor in significant injury time. I don't see much value here. It's likely that one of the elite speedsters will top 50, but which one? The older guys like Rollins or Ichiro could lose their legs at anytime.

ERA- These are all pretty optimistic, but not out of the question for elite pitchers. I think Halladay offers the most value.

W- The projections as a whole seem low. I would pick and choose very carefully here. Buchholz pitched significantly above his peripherals last year and I could see him taking a step back, but he pitches on Boston and will get ridiculous run support. If Brett Anderson makes the 25 starts required for action, I think he'll win more than 11 games. The other Oakland pitchers have slightly higher lines, so there's some value in that line.

Ks- I like the Gallardo and Lee unders best. The Greinke line may have been adjusted for missing a month's worth of starts. The projection does not account for this.

Saves- These are just as tough as wins. It's really got more to do with team outlook and job security than anything else. I like the Rockies to win the west, but Jim Tracy won't hesitate to pull the plug on Street at the first sign of struggle. Street is also a good bet to spend some time on the DL, nullifying the bet. Despite what the projections say, I think Axford could clear 28.5.

MLB Divisions Value

There are some really terrible bets out there. (Division odds from BP)

• Pretty much everything that has to do with the Phillies is terrible value. 
• Sportsbook is also offering the Yankees at +250 to win the AL Pennant which suggests that if the Yankees win the AL East (+200), they are 85% likely to win the Pennant. Obviously this is terrible value.  This is without a doubt a terrible bet, but not as bad as originally though as the Yankees still have a good shot at the Wild Card. 
• There appears to be public perception to underrate the Rangers and Giants in their respective divisions. I imagine this is due to both teams reaching the WS as overachievers last year. Both teams are very solid. The Rockies and Angels are teams the public expects to perform well, but the numbers aren't there. 
• There's been an overreaction to the Wainwright injury on the Cardinals' chances. 

NCAA Regional and Tournament Winner(s) Log5 vs Odds

This is my first attempt at doing one of these. I used Ken Pomeroy's log5 numbers. Interesting that the betting lines are against the Big 10.