NFL Survivor Week 1

Survival pools are one of my favorite things to do during the NFL season. I compete in the simplest variety- pick one team to win straight up each week (of course the team can't be used more than once). More competitive pools force contestants to pick two teams and in some cases the team(s) must win against the spread.

For my purposes, I have a clear strategy that I've used the past two years. I compile an Excel spreadsheet of all the point spreads for each game of the season, then I find the combination of picks that fit the criteria (one team per week, only use each team once) that maximizes the number of points I have in my favor over the course of the season. This is the perfect thing to use the Excel Solver add on, but the free version won't accept this many inputs and I don't want to pay $200 for the paid version; I think I do a good enough job eyeballing it.

Here's my strategy going into week 1:


A couple of notes:

• Just pick whoever is playing the Cardinals or Panthers. 
• Every division is picked except the NFC West which is picked against. 
• It's looking more and more like Peyton Manning won't play in Week 1 vs Houston. The game has been taken off the board. Once Manning's status is clear, the Texans could be in the mix for the week 1 selection. 
• Looking at every single point spread is a good exercise. For example, the Bengals, my week 16 selection, are favored by seven points in that game against the Cardinals. I don't think the Bengals should be favored by seven points against a high school team. They'll probably win because the Cardinals won't be very good, but I except that line to be much tighter come kickoff.