Back when I ran the Log5 for the playoffs, this matchup was projected to occur 3.4% of the time which barely edged out the Cardinals-Rays matchup for the least likely World Series pairing. As of the night before the series, the Rangers are the consensus favorite in the series. Here's a look at the key aspects of each team:
Rangers Rotation: CJ Wilson, Colby Lewis, Derek Holland, Matt Harrison
Free agent to be CJ Wilson leads the Rangers pitching staff. Ironically, it is his fault (and Prince Fielder's boost) that gave the Cardinals home field advantage in this series. This season was only Wilson's second as a full time starter and he improved dramatically upon last year's transition. He does walk a fair number of hitters.
Somewhat similarly, Colby Lewis spent the season pitching in Japan two years ago and this marked his second year back in the states. Unfortunately for him, it didn't go as well as 2010. Lewis led the league in home runs allowed and saw his other ratio stats move in the wrong direction. Lewis, like Jaime Garcia, had a dramatic home/road split, but Lewis is a much stronger pitcher on the road.
Derek Holland is possibly more volatile than Jaime Garcia. He led the league by throwing four shutouts but still finished with an ERA around 4. He is only 24 years old. He represents a wild card for the Rangers.
Rounding out the Rangers rotation is one of the pieces acquired in the Mark Teixeira trade, Matt Harrison. Harrison set a new career high for innings pitched this year and started one fewer game this season than he had in the prior three seasons combined. Harrison may be the Rangers' second best pitcher behind Wilson.
Cardinals Rotation: Chris Carpenter, Jaime Garcia, Kyle Lohse, Edwin Jackson
Remarkably, the Cardinals were able to get past the Brewers despite needing the bullpen to throw at least four innings in each game. At their best, the Cardinals rotation is one of the team's strengths. Carpenter overcame a slow start to have a great season and is the unquestionable staff ace. He turned in dynamite performances in the final game of the season and NLDS Game 5. He did not look as good in the NLCS and there was some concern that his elbow would prevent him from making a potential NLCS Game 7 start. Fortunately, Game 7 wasn't required and Carpenter appears healthy now.
The Cardinals need to treat Jaime Garcia with kid gloves. He is a markedly different pitcher in Busch Stadium than anywhere else. It's no surprise he will start Game 2. Given his track record at Busch, a strong start can be expected.
Kyle Lohse had the mirror opposite season as Carpenter: He started off hot but faded towards the end of the season. When Lohse is on the mound, you don't worry about if the other team will score, but how many they'll get. If he can use his pitch to contact approach to limit the Rangers to three or four runs over six innings, that would be a fine contribution.
When the Cardinals traded for Jackson and friends, many, including me, were upset. While I did not dispute that the trade made the team better at the moment, I was worried about 1) the long term consequences of the deal and 2) the trade not improving the team enough to make the playoffs. Objection #2 was clearly disproven and considering Colby Rasmus' play in Toronto, objection #1 is on the path to invalidation as well. As for Jackson's value to the Cardinals in this series- he is the true wildcard. The knock on Jackson is his lack of command. The stuff is there. He oozes potential. Remember this is the pitcher who threw 149 pitches in a no-hitter that included EIGHT walks. Jackson was so poor in his last outing that TLR pulled him after two innings. A friend remarked to me that he was glad the team has no chance of resigning Jackson because it's painful to watch him pitch. Maybe there's a Jeff Weaver start in him to boost his market value before that happens.
Edge: Very, very close- Rangers.
Rangers Bullpen:
Neftali Feliz, Alexi Ogando, Mike Adams, and Koji Uehara are all really, really good. Feliz struggled for most of the year and walked way too many batters, but still finished with an 2.74 ERA. Ogando was a starter for most of the year, but transitioned to the pen for the stretch run and to limit his innings. So far in the postseason he has worked 7.2 innings and struck out ten. Adams and Uehara were both acquired at the trade deadline and found themselves right at home. Adams showed why most baseball people preferred to trade for him rather than teammate Heath Bell. He also proved that he was not a product of Petco Park, but was, in fact, nasty. Uehara got unlucky with his home runs but had a 23 K/BB ratio (1 BB!) as a member of the Rangers.
Cardinals Bullpen:
As referenced above, the Cardinals bullpen was worked hard in the Milwaukee series. Remarkably, they held most of the leads. The bullpen has been the team's biggest weakness over the past two seasons which made the performance in the NLCS even more astounding. Starting from the back, Jason Motte serves as the team's closer. He throws heat and that's it. Since he broke in with the big league team in 2009, the only person who has given Motte trouble is himself. I have full confidence in his ability to shut down any part of any order.
Setting up in front of Motte from the right side are Fernando Salas, Octavio Dotel, and Mitchell Boggs. Salas is a very useful pitcher with command of a four average pitches. He is prone to the longball which cost him the closer's job down the stretch. Dotel was acquired in the Rasmus trade and pitched well enough down the stretch. The biggest reason for that was the second lowest walk rate of his career. Like Salas, Boggs also had a shot at closer, but lost it. He doesn't throw as hard as Motte, but he brings heat and can mix in some offspeed stuff as well. Boggs should be the last righthander used in the pen.
On the left side of the bullpen are two pitchers who both joined the team after July 27th- Marc Rzepczynski (search B-Ref for Marc R to spell it!) and Arthur Rhodes. Rhodes is in the same position as Bengie Molina was last year in that he'll get a ring no matter what since he was released by the Rangers in August. Rhodes is the specialist of the two and won't pitch to more than one or two hitters and they must be lefthanded. He made some big pitches in the earlier rounds of the playoffs. Rzepczynski is hailed as the only ray of hope to come from the Rasmus trade. He is a young pitcher with potential. He has been rock solid in the playoffs showing ability to retire both lefthanded and righthanded hitters.
Edge: The Cardinals bullpen isn't as good as the last round made them out to be. Motte is the only Cardinal to rank with the Rangers crop of relievers. Rangers.
Rangers Hitters:
The Rangers have a very strong offensive team and receive contributions from almost every position on the diamond. Starting behind the plate, Mike Napoli mashes to the tune of a 1.046 OPS. The other big power threats are Adrian Beltre, Josh Hamilton, and Nelson Cruz. All had slugging percentages over .500. Cruz and Beltre have already exploded in the playoffs, but Hamilton has been quiet. If he gets his bat going too, it will be a long series for the Cardinals pitchers. Elvis Andrus doesn't hit for much power but he gets on base well and is a major base stealing threat. It will be great to see him attempt to steal on Yadier Molina. The strangest story in the Rangers season was the Michael Young ordeal. At the beginning of Spring Training, it looked like the team would trade him and there were stories coming out regarding Young's displeasure with the whole situation. He ultimately was not traded and the Rangers got a very productive season. Although he only hit 11 home runs, his 41 doubles allowed him to lead the team in RBI. Young will probably play first base in Game 2 and possibly in Game 1 but will serve as DH for the games in Texas. The normal first baseman is Mitch Moreland who wasn't able to build off his success in last year's playoffs. Rounding out the starting lineup is Ian Kinsler, a University of Missouri product, who is coming off one of the quietest 30/30 seasons in history. The Rangers bench is composed of David Murphy, Yorvit Torrealba, Craig Gentry, and Endy Chavez. Murphy has enjoyed success in the past, but never got it going this year. Torrealba is a great defense catcher and could be inserted for Napoli in late game situations.
Cardinals Hitters:
Led by the trio of Albert Pujols, Matt Holliday, and Lance Berkman, the Cardinals offense has hit its stride over the past three weeks. Albert has been killing everying. Berkman continues to get on base at a high clip and get big hits. Holliday suffered through a very strange season and never seemed to get everything on the same page. The big story of the playoffs so far has been third baseman David Freese. I doubted his ability coming into the season, but when he is healthy, he's quite a player. Jon Jay has also shown himself to be the real deal. Watching him execute perfect hit and runs, bunt, and make outstanding catches in the outfield reminds me of all the things Colby would never have been able to do. Yadier Molina had the best offensive season of his career and continues to be the best defensive catcher in baseball. The only holes in the Cardinals lineup are up the middle. Rafael Furcal has helped out since coming over from the Dodgers on July 31st, but that's primarily because his defense is such an upgrade over Ryan Theriot's. Second base has been a mix match of Skip Schumaker, Ryan Theriot, and Nick Punto. All provide nearly the same offensive value and Theriot and Punto are much better defensively than Schumaker, a former outfielder. The bench features a major weapon in Allen Craig who will serve as the DH in Texas. Craig will be the best DH from an NL World Series team in recent memory. This is certainly true for the Cardinals playoff teams during the Pujols era. In 2004 and 2006, Chris Duncan, Marlon Anderson, Scott Speizio, and Reggie Sanders served as DH in the AL parks. Craig is a much better hitter than all four. Gerald Laird is only on the bench as Molina insurance and probably won't see a single pitch. Rookie Adron Chambers has great speed, but could find himself left off the roster.
Edge: Rangers, barely.
Overall Thoughts:
I gave the Rangers the edge in every category, but I think the Cards have a great shot in this series. Both the offense and starting rotation could have a slight edge over Texas. The only place I see a clear advantage is the bullpen, but if the Cards bullpen continues its run of success, that would be mitigated. I think the Cards have a great shot at arriving in Texas with a 2-0 lead. They are favored in Game 1 and I suspect they will also be in Game 2. From there they need to win one in Texas, then one more in St. Louis. It should be a great series. It's hard for me to pick my team because I feel like I'll only be setting myself up for disappointment but I see the Cards winning this series in six games. I have the Cards +140 and the number has come down a bit, but I still think there is some value.
No comments:
Post a Comment