Final Projection for Derek Jeter's 3,000th Hit!

We are finally nearing the end of Derek's quest for 3,000. He entered the season needing 74 hits to reach the milestone and he now sits only 16 away! Sbet has stopped offering odds on a specific date and instead has prices for each of the Yankees upcoming series. These are shown below:



The implied % column may look a little off. +150 odds typically implies a 40% probability and if it were offered alone or with a line of -150, then there would not be a problem. However, if each of these odds are taken in a vacuum (100/(100+Odds)) and summed, the summed percentage is 180%. This cannot be! We can fix this by dividing each of the probabilities by the summed total and that way all will equal 100%.

Using Derek's 2011 overal statistics, home/away split statistics, and May split statistics, we can estime how many hits per game he will get and when hit #3,000 will occur.



All three statistics suggest it will happen in the first or second game of the Cubs series!

So far this season, Derek has come to bat 4.75 times per game with walks, HBP, etc, he gets 4.23 AB/G. It's possible that Derek could take a more aggressive approach at the plate as he pursues hit #3,000 during the ten game homestand from June 7-16 because he would like to reach the milestone in front of the home crowd before the six game road trip. Failing to reach the milestone could put the Yankees in a bad spot; when Stan Musial was one hit away from 3,000, the Cardinals were playing in Chicago and the team rested Musial so he could get the hit at home. Unfortunately, the game was close and the Cards needed a hit and Musial was called to duty and delivered the hit. If Jeter struggles, the Yankees could be in a similar position coming back from the trip in Cincinnati.

If Derek were to reach hit #3,000 in these series, he would need to have averages at least this high.



Now Derek has struggled this year, but he has only had three instances of not recording a hit in back to back games; He hasn't had three 0fers in a row yet and his worst stretch of the season came over a seven game stretch from May 11 to May 17 where he went 4/31.

I wouldn't touch the Red Sox or Indians odds and unless Derek really commits to not walking and tries to get that hit at home, I think the Rangers series is unlikely as well. I would put my money on the Cubs series and might put a little on the Reds series.