Here's another update to the MLB season win totals. This spreadsheet was compiled before any of the games today. As always the lines come from sbet. Around the All Star break I'll try to do a post showing the change in each team's line, projection, and pace. Should be good stuff.
As always the BP numbers favor a team's true talent level while the pace numbers reflect current performance. Unsurprisingly, the bigger discrepancies involve teams on long winning streaks (the Nats) and long losing streaks (the Marlins). The sharp bettor knows to play against these streaks as most teams return to their true talent level (as the Indians and Red Sox have after their starts).
The Phillies again look like a nice under bet. Even at this ridiculous pace they will win just over 100 games. If one of the big four were to go down it seems likely they will miss 100 wins. Even with a healthy big four, their offense needs to improve for over 100 to be a solid play.
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