The Wild Card play in games are over- what a day of baseball. By the Vegas lines the chances of a "Birds Sweep" were approximately 13%. I thought the Cardinals had a great shot at winning, but I thought the Rangers would roll over Joe Saunders and the Orioles. More Orioles magic, I guess. Remarkable that a team manages eight hits (only one for extra bases) and strikes out 12 times yet still scores five runs. Even more remarkable was Ron Washington giving up his DH with three catchers on his roster for this "round". Ron Wash FTW.
As for the Cards, there's no question they benefited from a terrible call. There's really not much to be said for that other than it was terrible. Would the Cards have held on even if Simmons had reached? Hard to say. Turner Field was rocking and all of the Cardinals relievers looked a little rattled. I really liked the way Matheny managed this game. He was aggressive with the bullpen- burning the "long" man, Lance Lynn, for a third of an inning. Lohse appeared to be in a groove when Matheny took him out but Freeman laced a base hit and Uggla missed a home run by a few centimeters. Better one batter early than one batter late. Lohse did more than expected and deserved the win. I thought Matheny deployed the bench very well. Running Chambers was aggressive but the correct move. It was interesting to see the dichotomy with Showalter in that regard. In the top of the ninth Jim Thome reached on a single. Jim Thome is 42 years old and probably never had even average speed. Showalter didn't pinch run for him until he reached third. The broadcasters said Buck did this because he would prefer to keep the superior offensive player should the game go to extra innings. It's also possible that Showalter didn't feel Lew Ford was a significant speed upgrade at that time (Ford eventually pinch ran on third and appeared to be running on contact). Makes you wonder why Xavier Avery wasn't included on the O's roster, but alas they won.
Back to the NL, the Braves played atrocious defense outside of Jason Heyward's phenomenal catch. This was unexpected. Even Andrelton Simmons made an error. It appeared that Simmons was short arming the ball all game and the broadcasters later said he was dealing with a finger injury. Free agent to be Michael Bourn showed his defensive prowess is all speed based as Allen Craig (not fast) scored standing up on a average fly ball. Bourn's throw wasn't even close. The Braves ultimately suffered from poor defense and a lack of timely hits. It happens. They should have won that game. Fredi Gonzalez only left his fingerprints on the game once and it cost them. In the bottom of the second he called for a safety squeeze with Simmons, the eighth hitter. Yes, the pitcher was on deck. Apparently Freeman, who was on third, missed the sign and didn't break. Simmons was out on interference and Medlen weakly grounded out. End of threat.
The Cardinals now turn their attention to the top overall speed in the National League in the Washington Nationals. The major storyline here is that the Nationals are without arguably their most valuable player- Stephen Strasburg. After Strasburg was shut down on September 7th, the Nats went 13-11 (.542). To that point they were 85-53 (.615). Every game between the Nationals and Cardinals occurred after August 30th and squeaked out a 4-3 edge winning three our of four at home. Nationals Park will be rocking for the first playoff baseball in DC since 1933 and you know Busch Stadium will be painted in red as is October tradition. Teddy has won a President's race, but is 2012 the year the Nats win a postseason series? Here's the breakdown:
Catcher: There's not much more to be said about Yadier Molina. He is unquestionably the best defensive catcher in baseball by a wide margin and has matured into one of the best hitters in the league. Yadi is clutch. Yadi does the little things. Yadi has lead the Cardinals in batting average the past two regular seasons. The Nationals got a tough break when Wilson Ramos went down for the season in early May. Then more bad luck hit when Jesus Flores went down. Incredibly Sandy Leon, who played all of 2011 in high A, was hurt immediately after Flores, and the club was forced to turn to journeyman Carlos Maldonado. This wasn't going to cut it in the playoffs so they traded for Kurt Suzuki just after the July 31st deadline. Suzuki has been exactly what the Nats ordered as he has posted a 96 OPS+- a far cry from Flores's 55- and gotten a number of timely hits. Suzuki throws base stealers out a pedestrian 30.1% clip which pales in comparison to Yadi's 47.1%. Yadi basically plays in a different league than Suzuki in all aspects. Advantage: Cardinals
First Base: This is a close one. Both guys hit cleanup for their ballclubs and drove in more than 90 runs. Adam LaRoche missed virtually all of last season and had his best season since 2009. The Nats have a $10 million option for him next year that they will almost assuredly pick up. LaRoche excelled in the power department this year with a .510 slugging percentage. He has the reptation for being one of the most consistent defensive first baseman in the league. For his career he was a significant platoon split but it was not as bad this year. Allen Craig is a better hitter and bested him in every triple slash category. He is not as good a defender. I'll take the stick. Advantage: Cardinals
Second Base: Both of these guys could be playing (or do also play) on the left side of the infield. Add Schumaker to the mix and these may be three of the top five second base arms in the game. That's about the only thing they share. Danny Espinosa is the rare three true outcome second baseman. 541 of his 1,428 (37.88%) major league plate appearances have resulted in either a walk, home run, or strike out. The strikeouts are beginning to get out of hand as Espinosa led the league with 189 this season. Despite that the power and on base allowed him to post an OPS+ of 94. Espinosa is also a switch hitter but showed virtually no platoon split this year which could be a sign of his progression as a hitter as his career OPS from the right side is about 100 points higher than from the left side. Since he is essentially a shortstop playing 2B, Espinosa is very good defensively- the third best by UZR. There's not much more I want to add about Descalsco that I haven't already said. He's the essence of a replacement player and provides value with average or better defense at the specialty infield positions. Advantage: Nationals
Third Base: Another close one. On the hot corner for the Nats is their franchise player who has the second biggest contract on the team and is at best the third most recognized player by the common fan. The fact is when Ryan Zimmerman is healthy he is one of the top third basemen in the league. Few third basemen make plays on short ground balls better than Zimmerman. Many of his errors come from poor throwing mechanics which could be due to injury. Zimmerman battled through a sore shoulder for most of the year and has been boosted by cortisone injections since August. Despite that he had a fine offensive season and was one of four Nats to hit more than 20 home runs, although after posting back to back 7 WAR seasons in 2009-10, many expected big things in his age 27 season. Somewhat concerning on the heels of signing a $100 million + extension is that Zimmerman struck out at the highest rate of his career and had his lowest OBP since 2008. David Freese had a higher average and OBP than Zimmerman and plays similar caliber defense. Both are known as clutch hitters for their respective franchises although Freese's heroics have occurred on a slightly larger stage. Advantage: Tie
Shortstop: If anyone has an explanation for what got into Ian Desmond, I'd love to hear it. Desmond entered the year with 22 home runs in 1,302 major league plate appearances and proceeded to hit 25 in 547 (only 130 games) in his age 26 season. It's very possible Desmond worked with the Nationals hitting staff to hone his swing mechanics as he in years past he always showed power but never generated enough loft or consistent contact to tap into it. In addition to power, Desmond was a 20-20 player and stole 21 bases in an efficient 27 attempts. He does not possess enough speed to be a threat to Yadi unless the pitchers are slow to the plate. Desmond also came into his own in the field and posted his first positive UZR over a full season. All in all it appears this is a young player who had potential (third round pick out of HS) and received the proper instruction to tap into his talent. Desmond should be heralded as a success for the organization. Maybe in three years the same will be said of Peter Kozma. Kozma showed some rookie jitters in his first playoff atmosphere when he bizarrely pulled off the infamous infield fly and double clutched on a would be double play. That is not what Kozma has done for the Cardinals since Rafael Furcal got hurt in Washington in late August. All he needs to do this series is play consistent defense. If he hits, great, but don't expect anything. Advantage: Nationals
Left Field: Michael Morse is my greatest fantasy call ever. I had him as a breakout player prior to the 2011 season- even prior to his outrageous 2011 Grapefruit League- and he delivered. He was hurt to begin 2012 and came back in June. His numbers look a lot better than they actually are. Incredibly he somehow came up as a shortstop and cannot play leftfield. He is regularly replaced by Roger Bernadina in the seventh inning or later. At the plate he managed to decrease his walks even more and strike out a tad more. That's a bad recipe. Despite his batting average falling 12 points his OBP tumbled 39. He had 16 walks in 430 plate appearances. Even Rick Ankiel- who is allergic to walks- had 12 in 171 plate appearances prior to being DFAd. Luckily Morse slugs but even that fell 80 points from last year. The Nats did a great job controlling his arbitration years with a two year extension last year because they surely would have faced a tough decision with Morse. The counting stats are there but all the rate stats are screaming to stay away. In all he was barely above replacement level this year. Matt Holliday will receive significant MVP consideration. He is capable of hitting balls out of any stadium on a line. Interestingly, Holliday was removed for defensive purposes in the Atlanta game, not Carlos Beltran. Holliday is known to be battling a sore back but the back may be the one area of Beltran not bothering him. Regardless, the choice here is easy. MVP candidate vs replacement player. Advantage: Cardinals
Center Field: It's impossible to say anything that hasn't already been said about Bryce Harper. The kid is a phenom and exceeded all the hype surrounding him. I coached a team of 19 year old baseball players this summer and it left me even more in awe of what Bryce is capable of doing. Many of our players struggled remembering signs and their uniforms- let alone play baseball at anywhere near an elite level. Bryce was a hit early on, struggled mightily, then made adjustments and finished extremely strong. For everything he is capable of doing on the field, his makeup is perhaps his most impressive asset. He runs everything out, never gets too down on anything that happens in the game, and is always a play ahead of everyone else on the field. Jon Jay is great and I'm glad he's on the team but Bryce Harper does everything, except hit for average, light years better than Jon Jay, and it's possible Jay's average advantage has a short life if Bryce continues to progress in this fashion. Bryce is the only player in this series who can compete with Yadi's arm strength. The Cards stole a run on a sac fly against Michael Bourn but they'll have to hit it much further to tag up on Bryce. Advantage: Nationals
Right Field: It's hard to communicate how bad the Jayson Werth contract is. The Nats are paying Werth more than the Cardinals are paying Holliday and he is hitting a weak leadoff for them. Werth played exactly half the season but at his pace would have ranked fourth on the Nats in steals. He isn't a great basestealer. What he can do is walk. Had he qualified his OBP would have ranked 16th in the major leagues. He had a somewhat high BABIP but nothing ridiculous. The big story with Werth is the lack of power. His ISO averaged .232 from 2008-2010 but with the Nationals has averaged .149. Yikes. Brandon Phillips had a .148 ISO this year. Great for a second baseman. Terrible for the right fielder paid like a power hitting stud. Fortunately the Nats have Bryce Harper, Ryan Zimmerman, and Adam LaRoche providing above average power behind him. He's a good fit for leadoff for this team but no one else would give a player with these skills that kind of money. It was ridiculed then and will be for the life of the contract. Who knows what to expect from Carlos Beltran. As I write this his numbers over the past 28 days are encouraging- 4 HR, 18/14 K/BB, .301/.414/507. He has been hitting out of the two hole and if he can post a .414 from that position that's perfect. The power is a nice bonus but the big boys are coming up behind him. Carlos hasn't shown much of a platoon split this year so it's nice to break up the inevitable Matt Carp/Skip, Jay lefty lineup turnover. It's really hard to pick a side here. If forced to, I'd go Beltran, but these are two extremely different players who perform their designated roles well. Advantage: Tie
Bench: The Cardinals do not have any right handed threat off the bench. I hope that Adron Chambers stays on the roster as his speed was showcased as an asset in the Atlanta game. He and Shane Robinson can be late inning defensive replacements for the ailing/aging COFs. Matt Carpenter and Skip Schumaker are great left handed pinch hitters. The Nats have a deeper bench. There's no way around that. Roger Bernadina offers comparable speed and defense to Chambers but is solid with the bat (112 OPS+) and much more experienced. Joining Bernadina on the left side of the bench is Chad Tracy who had a remarkable year given he hadn't appeared in a big league game in 2011. Tracy will likely be used in clutch situations as he got a number of timely hits for Washington this year. The biggest power threat off the bench is rookie Tyler Moore. Thankfully he hits righthanded. In 171 PA he had 19 XBH, 10 of which were HR. His OPS+ trailed only LaRoche, Werth, and Desmond on the Nats. He also strikes out an awful lot. The final member of the Nats bench is super utility guy Steve Lombardozzi who is essentially a better version of Descalso and a switch hitter. He flirted with .300 for awhile before finishing at .273/.317/.354. Jesus Flores will be the backup catcher and isn't much better than his counterpart on the Cardinals, Tony Cruz. I wouldn't expect to see him unless Suzuki gets injured. Advantage: Nationals
Gio Gonzalez vs. Adam Wainwright: Gio Gonzalez will be a top three Cy Young finisher which is familiar territory for Adam Wainwright when he's not coming off Tommy John Surgery. The one knit to pick with Gio are his walks. Out of qualified starters his 3.43 BB/9 ranks 15th worse in baseball. He makes up for it by striking batters out at a rate of 9.35 K/9 which led the National League. He also had the 11th lowest BABIP, the lowest HR/9 and HR/FB % in baseball. All of this paints the picture that while Gonzalez is good- he is slightly outperforming his peripherals as evidenced by his 3.38 xFIP. That still places him among the top 20 pitchers in the game. Gonzalez had six starts where he allowed more than three runs. He also had six starts allowing zero runs. Oddly enough he has a reverse platoon split with LHs posting an OPS more than 60 points higher in his career. This trend continued in 2012. The good news for the Cardinals is that Gio will be starting Game 1 on the road where his ERA jumps to 3.31 in addition to jumps in his walk and home run rates. While the Nats could be described as coddling Stephen Strasburg both in game and with a season innings cap, the Cards turned Wainwright lose all season. Waino just missed throwing 200 innings. His strikeout rate tied his career high as a starter and his walk rate and home run rate were in line with his career norms. Waino struggled because he was just too hittable. His hit rate and opponent batting average were both the highest since 2007- his first year as a starter. The good news for the Cardinals is Waino got noticeably sharper over the course of the season. His ERA by month- 7.32, 3, 5.21, 2.76, 2.75, and 4.20. Waino made two starts against the Nationals and had very mixed results getting shelled on the road and pitching very well at home. Advantage: Nationals
Jordan Zimmermann vs. Jaime Garcia: This matchup would be different if it were in DC, but this is the game two matchup in Busch Stadium. For his career, Jaime has a 2.48 home ERA vs 4.47 road ERA. He had a great start in Game 2 of the 2011 World Series- also at home. Jaime was injured for a majority of the year but had peripherals nearly identical to last year. He is only 25 years old and still has a shot to develop into a strong number two starter. Zimmermann is in year two of his recovery from Tommy John surgery. The Nationals shut him down last year after 161 innings setting the precedent for the Strasburg treatment. It looked smart as Zimmermann came out and pitched great the entire season but particularly down the stretch. He had a 2.61 ERA over his last five starts and won all five games. There was some concern that he hit a wall around the 160 inning mark as he posted a 4.39 ERA in five August starts. His home start against the Cards was a disaster as he allowed eight earned runs and was chased before the fourth inning. He threw a quality start against the Cards in St. Louis in his final start of the season. For as good as his stuff is, Zimmermann doesn't strike out as many hitters as expected. He doesn't walk many batters either finishing eighth among qualified NL starters in BB/9. This will be a great game. Advantage: Tie
Edwin Jackson: In the past month Edwin showed why no one was willing to give him a multiyear commitment at a high AAV last offseason. Over his last six starts he allowed six or more runs twice but he also had two starts of eight innings and one or fewer earned runs. He's an enigma and that is never going to change. He has worked with Don Cooper and Dave Duncan- the two best pitching coaches in the game- and neither were able to get consistency out of Edwin. He is what he is. He's a great fifth starter and an above average four, but other than that he can't be relied on. He has thrown at least 180 innings every year since 2008. He cut his walk rate and increased his strikeouts this year but also allowed significantly more home runs. Every time he takes the mound he's either going to throw a gem or blow up. There is little in between.
Chris Carpenter: A game three matchup between Edwin and Carp favors the Cards in my opinion. Carp has only made three starts this year but he has appeared to get better in each of them. In his final start against the Reds he cruised through the first five innings before getting hit around a bit in the sixth. Carp is the ultimate competitor. If he gives the Cards six innings and two runs- they'll win that game. There's a great chance that happens.
Kyle Lohse: I wrote a lot about Lohse in my Atlanta game breakdown and he did what he's continued to do all year in that game. He even struck out a good amount of hitters. He was a little hittable and Matheny made the right call to get him out of there after 5.2 innings. Lohse got hammered in Nats Park in late August but I wouldn't expect that to happen again.
Ross Detwiler: It's unknown how the Nats will line up their rotation passed the first two games, but there's a strong case to be made for Detwiler to start over Jackson despite spending the entire season as the fifth starter. Detwiler kind of gets by on smoke and mirrors. He gets 50% groundballs but doesn't strike anyone out. He helps himself by not walking anyone. While his ERA was a healthy 3.40, FIP and xFIP suggest it should have been over 4. If there's a Game 4 matchup of Lohse vs. Detwiler, I would expect the Cardinals to win the matchup.
Bullpen: The Nats bullpen carries a 3.23 ERA; The Cardinals bullpen, 3.90. That looks like a huge difference but the peripheral stats aren't as drastic. The Cards walked fewer (8.2 vs 9.1%), got more GBs (46.8 vs 43.6%) and struck out about the same (21.7 vs 21.8%). The Nats were better at preventing hits and stranding baserunners. The Cardinals bullpen is built on the strength of Edward Mujica, Mitchell Boggs, and Jason Motte. Boggs and Motte each threw over 72 innings and posted sub three ERAs while routinely touching 97+ MPH. It appears that Lance Lynn will be used out of the bullpen for the playoffs and he looked great coming into the 6th inning in Atlanta. If Lynn is able to provide a bridge to the late inning, high leverage situations- that's exactly what the Cards have been missing. Lynn will pick up Salas's innings. That's a great thing. If he is also able to be used in the seventh or eighth to give Mujica or Boggs a rest, the Cards will win this series. The Nats counter with Tyler Clippard, Craig Stammen, and Drew Storen. Storen missed most of the season with tendonitis but came back and wrestled the closer's job away from Clippard. Clippard may finally be showing signs of wear as his WHIP and ERA were both the highest in his major league career. He leads relievers in IP since 2010 at 252. Regardless he still strikes batters out at a high rate. His walk and strand rates were bad for him this year. Stammen is very versatile and is capable of pitching multiple innings. He is very consistent, but not unhittable. Drew Storen only threw 30 innings this year, but showed signs of returning to 2011 form. That year he closed out 43 games for the Nats. He didn't give up a single home run this year which contributed significantly to his low ERA. Sean Burnett is easily the best lefthanded reliever in this series. He neutralizes lefties. Fortunately Matt Carpenter, John Jay, and Skip Schumaker aren't in the heart of the order and counted on for run production. The Nats will also use Ryan Mattheus in low leverage situations. He is an entirely ordinary reliever. I can't bring myself to say the Cardinals bullpen is better but I think there is an excellent chance for the Cardinals pen to outpitch the Nats in this series. The Cardinals 7-9th inning roles are much more solidified and have been more consistent down the stretch. If Lynn is able to provide another shut down right arm that would be huge. Bryce Harper and Adam LaRoche are threats from the left side that Marc Rzepcynski will be counted on to get out once per game. The book is open on that one. Advantage: Nationals
Manager: My feelings on Mike Matheny are well documented but as I wrote above, he had an outstanding game against Atlanta. If Matheny is ever called as great a manager as Davey Johnson, it will be a tremendous complement. Johnson sports a career record of 1286-955 (.564) and has won one of the two World Series he has managed in. He should win his Second Manager of the Year award this year. Per Baseball Prospectus, the Nats are in the bottom third of sacrifice bunting teams. The only knit to pick with Davey is he may have rode his bullpen too hard as the unit threw over 500 innings, 7th in MLB. It's hard to imagine a scenario where Matheny has the advantage against anyone and the fact that it's Davey in the other dugout makes this an easy decision. Advantage: Nationals
Summary: I think MLB is going to regret starting these wild card series in the lower seeded city more than the one game playoff. Wait, that's not possible. It's still not that great a decision. As a Cardinals fan I'm thrilled they get two games at home. The Cardinals are an outstanding team at home (50-31, .617) and below average on the road (38-43, .469). The Cards could certainly win both games at home and put the Nats in a very tough spot in DC. While the whole team plays well at home, the pitching staff shows exceptional comfort there as their ERA is almost a full run lower at Busch Stadium than on the road. Going to DC, however, has been an extremely bad experience for the Cards. Since 2009 they are 4-10 in Nats Park with some dreadful losses. This year they were outscored 31-14 (one UER in the first 18 innings) in their four game set there. Until lately Nats Park hasn't been a particularly tough place to play. Heck in 2009 and 2010 for sure there were more Cardinals fans there than Nats. Maybe they need to stay at a different hotel?
The bottom line is to win this series the Cards need to beat Gio Gonzalez at least once. If they beat him twice (Game 1 and 4 or 5), they win the series. A split at home wouldn't be the worst as Jaime should turn in a solid performance. Game 3 will matchup Carp and Edwin (in this case Edlose) Jackson. Any Cardinals fan should like the team's chances there. EJax is a weighted coin of subliminal and atrocious pitching performances. The Cardinals shouldn't be afraid of the Nats pitching and the Cardinals pitching has been solid in September and October with a 3.33 ERA. The Nats, on the other hand, had their worst month posting a 3.75 ERA. The Nats, however, outhit the Cards over the same period hitting 53 home runs on their way to a team OPS of .819 against the Cards 26 home runs and OPS of .730. For the season, the Cardinals scored 34 more runs than the Nats while the Nats allowed 54 fewer. That's a net difference of 20 runs and three Pythagorean wins. These teams are very evenly matched but it seems like all facets of the game are going the Cardinals way right now. They have more postseason experience on the field and have already gotten the first game jitters out of the way.
It's difficult to see either team sweeping. I can't see the Cardinals winning 3-1 either. That would require a lot to go their way and I still don't know what to expect from Carpenter. I see this series going the distance and the Cardinals winning Game Five. Their lineup is more consistent and they are better prepared for postseason play. The four starters should all pitch six strong innings before turning it over to Mujica, Boggs, and Motte.
Saturday, October 6, 2012
Thursday, October 4, 2012
Game 163
I'm sorry Bud Selig, but I can't call what it happening Friday the playoffs. When the Braves and Rangers, two of the top five teams in baseball, could miss out on having an opportunity to compete for a World Championship, that's not good for the game. It's great that the Cardinals have a shot after a lackluster regular season but the Braves are clearly a better team. That being said it's one game and anything can happen so let's break this down.
First of all, I've had a lot of conversations regarding the starting pitcher for this game. There's only one right answer and fortunately Matheny came to it. Kyle Lohse starts this game. Period. Lohse's time with the Cardinals was really A Tale of Two Cities. In 2009 and especially 2010, he was one of the worst starting pitchers in baseball. After a cutting edge medical procedure, Lohse rebounded to his 2008 form and threw just under 400 innings of sub 3.20 ERA baseball since. 2012 was Lohse's best season yet as he was remarkably consistent only surrendering more than three runs in six of his lead leading 33 starts. It's a shame the business interests of the Cardinals and Lohse won't align this offseason because not only is he a great pitcher but he's a great member of the community and a real stand up guy. Kyle Lohse will be missed in St. Louis.
Those knocking Lohse point to his extremely lackluster postseason record. He is 0-4 in four postseason starts. As mentioned above, Lohse is a new pitcher this year and I expect his success to continue. There aren't any other reasonable options. Yes, Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright are postseason legends in Cardinals history, but they cannot be expected to start this game. Carpenter has made three starts since October 28, 2011. He has been better than expected but if his name weren't Chris Carpenter, no fan would want him on the bump in Atlanta. Carp is a great competitor, but the stuff isn't there yet. He will contribute to this team's playoff run, but not in Atlanta. Wainwright's performance this year has been a mixed bag. He has shown signs of his brilliance but at other times looked like the guy pitching for the first time after Tommy John surgery. There's no question he's in the playoff rotation but to roll the dice with him in a single elimination game is too risky.
Now with that explained, let's examine the match ups.
Catcher: Coming into 2012, everyone knew that Yadier Molina was the best defensive catcher in baseball, but to suggest he would be a MUCH better hitter than Brian McCann would raise eyebrows. How bad a 2012 has McCann had? His backup, David Ross, has an OPS 72 points higher. McCann put up a .230/.300/.399 line. McCann had a single month with an OPS higher than .798. On the other side, Yadier Molina did enough to garner significant NL MVP consideration as he set career highs in virtually every category (including 12 SBs!). His defense was phenomenal as usual. The Braves really don't run that much (101 SBs, 80 of which belong to Bourn (41), Heyward (21), and Prado (17)). If they run, Yadi will shut them down. Advantage: Cardinals
First Base: When looking through the numbers, I was surprised how middle of the road Freddie Freeman is. His wRC+is in the bottom half of qualified first basemen. He is only 22 and he avoided a sophmore slump by posting an extremely similar line to 2011 so he could still develop into the monster that is Allen Craig. When healthy in 2011 and 2012, Craig has hit .309/.357/.532. Over that period, the only 1Bs with 600+ PAs and a higher slugging percentage are Miguel Cabrera, Nike Napoli, Joey Votto, Prince Fielder, and Lance Berkman. Craig's problem is staying the field. He barely qualified for the leaderboards this year. Defensively he gets the job done. He can still play OF if needed. I don't think we will ever see him at 2B again. It would be nice to have a stick like that at 2B (I am not serious about this) but keeping him healthy is the utmost priority and the way to do that is playing him at 1B. Advantage: Cardinals
Second Base: Second base is a black hole position for the Cardinals. Ever since Mark Grudzielanek left following the 2006 season it has been filled by a cast of characters including Hector Luna, Adam Kennedy, Aaron Miles, Felipe Lopez, etc. Daniel Descalso hasn't done anything to own the position. He hits lefthanded, has a strong arm, and good range. The range is what separates him from Skip Schumaker and why he has gotten a majority of the playing time down the stretch. Descalso had some tough BABIP luck this year but the strikeouts are getting awfully high. Even the current incarnation of Dan Uggla is better than Descalso. Uggla isn't a good defender (best UZR since 2006, first positive since 2008) but he tied for third on the Braves in OBP and fifth among qualified 2B. For as much bad press as he gets, Uggla is still an extremely valuable second baseman. Advantage: Braves
Third Base: Both third baseman deserve more than I'm going to write about. Chipper Jones is a legend and David Freese is an October hero. Their OPSs were within 7 points of each other this year as remarkably both were healthy for nearly the entire season. At this point Freese offers more defensively. The only thing Chipper does better than David is walk. A player with Chipper's skillset is perfect for the two hole but no manager has the guts to bat him anywhere than the heart of the order. A very close matchup but I'm siding with David. Advantage: Cardinals
Shortstop: The Braves entered Spring Training with no clear shortstop. Most thought that Tyler Pastornicky would get the job and while that ended up happening, Andrelton Simmons almost made the team with no at bats above the Carolina League. Eventually, the Braves realized what a special player Simmons was and he ended the year as the starting shortstop. No one questioned his defensive value- Jose Iglesias is probably the only better fielding shortstop-but few expected his bat would play as well as it did. Simmons walked as much as he struck out, stole bases at ease, and had some pop. The NL Shortstop scene is crowded with Troy Tulowitzki, Jose Reyes, and Starlin Castro, but Simmons may be the best all around player of any of them. Pete Kozma deserves some mention but he is nowhere close to matching Simmons. Kozma has proved to have some worth as most had written the former first round pick off. He solidified the shortstop position following Rafael Furcal's season ending injury despite spending most of the season as the Memphis Redbirds' second baseman. All the Cardinals need from him is to continue playing mistake free baseball. He has also gotten some clutch hits this September. Advantage: Braves
Left Field: The first of three compelling OF matchups pits Matt Holliday and Martin Prado. Fortunately the Cards have the LFer who will garner MVP support while the Braves have one of the most versatile players in the game. Prado has actually appeared at every IF position this year and was third in the NL in hits. He is a great defender. Holliday, however, is the heart of the Cardinals order. The seven year contract he signed prior to the 2010 season is looking like one of the best long term free agent signings in recent history although his OPS has fallen every year. He still is extremely productive. Luckily the Cards weren't required to play a game in LA. Advantage: Cardinals
Center Field: The second neck and neck competition. Coming into 2011, no Cardinals fan would believe Jon Jay would be the center fielder and leadoff hitter on a Championship team. Colby Rasmus oozed potential and was looking to take the steps to stardom everyone had foretold. The previously overlooked Jay has been a .300 hitter in his major league career and played spectacular CF defense. He hurt himself earlier this year running into the wall after tracking a ball down. He is remarkably consistent posting an OPS between .768 and .780 in each year of his career. He spearheaded "High Sock Sundays". He has swag. The Cardinals are going to take a long look at extending Jay this offseason and I hope they do. Bourn also plays outstanding defense. Bourn also runs a lot. It's clear, however, that his first half of 2011 in Houston is not to be expected going forward. That was the only stretch of Bourn's career he posted an OPS+ above 100 (league average). He may also be slowing down as this was his worst baserunning year since 2008. These are not good facts for a soon to be free agent, but I'm sure Scott Boras has a binder prepared to paint a more favorable picture. I just hope that the Washington Nationals don't buy into Boras's schtick because Bourn has all the makings of a bust free agent. While this is close, I think the edge goes to Jon Jay and the Cardinals, but that may be due to my bias. Advantage: Tie
Right Field: Wow, this one would have been a whole different story on May 30th. On that date Beltran was at .294/.394/.594; Heyward, .233/.327/.413. Since then Heyward is .284/.339/.506 and Carlos is .257/.324/.451. Beltran showed some signs of life at the end of the season so there's hope. It's clear he played through a number of injuries that particularly sapped his power. His arm is still an asset on defense, but that's about it. His range is minimal. Heyward led MLB in UZR and all RFs in WAR. This one really isn't close. Advantage: Braves
Starting Pitcher: The Braves haven't lost in Kris Medlen's last 23 starts over a two year period (he had TJS). Medlen is good. He is not Greg Maddux good though. If Medlen qualified, his 0.4 HR/9 would be the lowest in baseball. He performed light years better by any measure as a starter than a reliever. Kris Medlen is not Stephen Strasburg. He is not a strikeout pitcher. Good teams, like the Cardinals, will hit him. Here is who Medlen has faced as a starter this year: Marlins, Astros, Mets, Padres, Nats, and Rockies. The Astros, Marlins, and Mets were among the worst offensive teams in baseball and the Rockies weren't far ahead. As covered above Lohse has been the picture of consistency this year. I expect strong starts from both pitchers. I'd call this a tie, but that's probably my Cardinals bias. Advantage: Braves
Bullpen: This is where the game is decided. The Cardinals bullpen relies heavily on Edward Mujica, Mitchell Boggs, and Jason Motte. There was a stretch in which those three pitched in order the 7th-9th almost everyday. The wear eventually caught up and all had poor outings. A couple of nights off should do them wonders. Motte closed out game 162 to tie Kimbrel for the league lead in saves but he should be fine. Joe Kelly and Trevor Rosenthal provide heat and the ability to work multiple innings if needed, however it appears that Lance Lynn would be the long man if Lohse falters early. I support that. Fernando Salas hasn't pitched well all year. He should not be used in high leverage situations. Marc Rzepcynski probably won't make the roster. That means the only lefthanded pitcher other than Jaime Garcia is Sam Freeman. This is critical. The Braves are a lefthanded heavy team. As a team their OPS is .721 against righties and .689 against lefties. Sam Freeman was a 32nd round draft pick out of Kansas. He made his major league debut in June and has since pitched 20 innings with a 5.40 ERA. He also has a reverse platoon split with righties hitting .189 and lefties hitting .290. He's a lefty who (small sample warning- please!) doesn't get lefties out. If the game comes down to one of the Braves lefthanded hitters up in a clutch situation, the Cardinals will lose. The Braves bullpen is the stuff of wonders. The only flaw with it is how Fredi Gonzalez utilizes it. It was first or second in bullpen ERA, FIP, and xFIP. Craig Kimbrel strikes out more than half the hitters he faces. Eric O'Flaherty and Jonny Venters are the rare lefthanded pitcher who can consistently get righthanded hitters out. The bullpen as a whole gets groundballs at a 51% clip. I'm not sure who the Braves will go with as the long guy if Medlen has a short outing. Tim Hudson would make sense or they could get multiple innings from each reliever. The Cardinals cannot afford to be down multiple runs when the Braves go to the bullpen. Advantage: Braves
Bench: A deep, versatile bench is critical in for this game. Every player rostered needs to excel at one aspect of the game and serve a purpose. While rosters haven't been announced I anticipate the Cardinals rostering Tony Cruz, Matt Carpenter, Adron Chambers, Skip Schumaker, Shane Robinson, and Ryan Jackson. Robinson doesn't really add much besides replacing the statue that is Carlos Beltran in RF if Chambers is burned as a PR (which is how he should be utilized). Jackson will be included because there is no one else to play SS if Kozma goes down. This group combined for 11 home runs this year so there is absolutely no power threat. They make up for that in versatility. Carpenter can play at least two infield positions and the outfield. Schumaker's positional flexibility and contact hitting are well known. The SB Nation Braves blog speculates the Braves will carry David Ross, Juan Francisco, Reed Johnson, Eric Hinske, Jose Constanza, and Tyler Pastornicky. It's not a great bench but better than the Cardinals. Ross is the best backup catcher in the majors. Pastornicky and Francisco are the Braves answer to the Cards' Jackson and Robinson. Hinske has fallen off a cliff this year but is still dangerous. Johnson is a professional hitter and Jose Constanza is the bad habit Fredi Gonzalez cannot quit. The good news is the Cards have the best contact hitters (Matt Carp/Skip) and fastest baserunner. Both of those factors could play in late situations. Nothing is worse than the PH strikeout which is something Juan Francisco excels at (70 Ks, 205 PAs). Advantage: Tie
Managers: Quick programming note. This next section is going to be harsh. I am 100% aware that I cannot and will never manage a major league team. I do not have the interpersonal skills capable of doing that. Both of these managers excel at that. Mike Matheny in particular is an extraordinary leader. If you haven't read his letter to the parents of his youth baseball team, go do that now. I wish I could be the leader of men that Mike Matheny is. I'm sure Fredi Gonzalez has similar qualities. That being said this may be the worst pair of managers to ever manage a playoff game. Bullpen usage, sac bunts, lineup decisions, etc. Both of these managers do things that make everyone scratch their heads. It goes without saying that the manager is of utmost importance in a one game playoff. I wish TLR would come back for this one game. Buck Showalter is going to make a clown out of Ron Washington in the AL Game. A one game playoff requires a manager to be innovative and deploy solid strategies; A case could be made that the pitcher should never hit for himself. One of these managers is going to lose the game based on a decision he makes. I'm not sure what that decision will be and which will make it but I'm confident that it will happen. One reason I'm not too down on the Cards chances is because Fredi Gonzalez is one guy I'm 100% sure is a worse in game manager than Mike Matheny. I look forward to the Cards scoring in the 8th inning with the heart of their order because Fredi only pitches Craig Kimbrel in save situations. Advantage: Tie
Summary: The Braves are a very, very good team. Their bullpen and defense are elite, if not the best in baseball. If Dan Uggla and Brian McCann had hit anywhere near their career averages, this would unquestionably be the team to beat in the National League. As it stands they are a formidable contender. I was surprised how poor of an offensive team they are though. As I write this the line on this game is Braves -161/+151. This is way too steep. The Cardinals, when they have their act together, are the best team in the National League. They have the starting pitching, the bullpen, and they most certainly have the lineup to win a World Championship. Regardless of who wins this game I am confident they will beat the Nationals in the Division Series. These are two very good baseball teams. In the end, I have to go with my heart. The pick is the Cardinals in a 5-3 ballgame. Look for Allen "Wrench" Craig to do big things and the Mujica, Boggs, Motte operation to shut things down in the late innings. Pray one of the Braves lefthanded bats doesn't come up in a clutch and late situation.
First of all, I've had a lot of conversations regarding the starting pitcher for this game. There's only one right answer and fortunately Matheny came to it. Kyle Lohse starts this game. Period. Lohse's time with the Cardinals was really A Tale of Two Cities. In 2009 and especially 2010, he was one of the worst starting pitchers in baseball. After a cutting edge medical procedure, Lohse rebounded to his 2008 form and threw just under 400 innings of sub 3.20 ERA baseball since. 2012 was Lohse's best season yet as he was remarkably consistent only surrendering more than three runs in six of his lead leading 33 starts. It's a shame the business interests of the Cardinals and Lohse won't align this offseason because not only is he a great pitcher but he's a great member of the community and a real stand up guy. Kyle Lohse will be missed in St. Louis.
Those knocking Lohse point to his extremely lackluster postseason record. He is 0-4 in four postseason starts. As mentioned above, Lohse is a new pitcher this year and I expect his success to continue. There aren't any other reasonable options. Yes, Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright are postseason legends in Cardinals history, but they cannot be expected to start this game. Carpenter has made three starts since October 28, 2011. He has been better than expected but if his name weren't Chris Carpenter, no fan would want him on the bump in Atlanta. Carp is a great competitor, but the stuff isn't there yet. He will contribute to this team's playoff run, but not in Atlanta. Wainwright's performance this year has been a mixed bag. He has shown signs of his brilliance but at other times looked like the guy pitching for the first time after Tommy John surgery. There's no question he's in the playoff rotation but to roll the dice with him in a single elimination game is too risky.
Now with that explained, let's examine the match ups.
Catcher: Coming into 2012, everyone knew that Yadier Molina was the best defensive catcher in baseball, but to suggest he would be a MUCH better hitter than Brian McCann would raise eyebrows. How bad a 2012 has McCann had? His backup, David Ross, has an OPS 72 points higher. McCann put up a .230/.300/.399 line. McCann had a single month with an OPS higher than .798. On the other side, Yadier Molina did enough to garner significant NL MVP consideration as he set career highs in virtually every category (including 12 SBs!). His defense was phenomenal as usual. The Braves really don't run that much (101 SBs, 80 of which belong to Bourn (41), Heyward (21), and Prado (17)). If they run, Yadi will shut them down. Advantage: Cardinals
First Base: When looking through the numbers, I was surprised how middle of the road Freddie Freeman is. His wRC+is in the bottom half of qualified first basemen. He is only 22 and he avoided a sophmore slump by posting an extremely similar line to 2011 so he could still develop into the monster that is Allen Craig. When healthy in 2011 and 2012, Craig has hit .309/.357/.532. Over that period, the only 1Bs with 600+ PAs and a higher slugging percentage are Miguel Cabrera, Nike Napoli, Joey Votto, Prince Fielder, and Lance Berkman. Craig's problem is staying the field. He barely qualified for the leaderboards this year. Defensively he gets the job done. He can still play OF if needed. I don't think we will ever see him at 2B again. It would be nice to have a stick like that at 2B (I am not serious about this) but keeping him healthy is the utmost priority and the way to do that is playing him at 1B. Advantage: Cardinals
Second Base: Second base is a black hole position for the Cardinals. Ever since Mark Grudzielanek left following the 2006 season it has been filled by a cast of characters including Hector Luna, Adam Kennedy, Aaron Miles, Felipe Lopez, etc. Daniel Descalso hasn't done anything to own the position. He hits lefthanded, has a strong arm, and good range. The range is what separates him from Skip Schumaker and why he has gotten a majority of the playing time down the stretch. Descalso had some tough BABIP luck this year but the strikeouts are getting awfully high. Even the current incarnation of Dan Uggla is better than Descalso. Uggla isn't a good defender (best UZR since 2006, first positive since 2008) but he tied for third on the Braves in OBP and fifth among qualified 2B. For as much bad press as he gets, Uggla is still an extremely valuable second baseman. Advantage: Braves
Third Base: Both third baseman deserve more than I'm going to write about. Chipper Jones is a legend and David Freese is an October hero. Their OPSs were within 7 points of each other this year as remarkably both were healthy for nearly the entire season. At this point Freese offers more defensively. The only thing Chipper does better than David is walk. A player with Chipper's skillset is perfect for the two hole but no manager has the guts to bat him anywhere than the heart of the order. A very close matchup but I'm siding with David. Advantage: Cardinals
Shortstop: The Braves entered Spring Training with no clear shortstop. Most thought that Tyler Pastornicky would get the job and while that ended up happening, Andrelton Simmons almost made the team with no at bats above the Carolina League. Eventually, the Braves realized what a special player Simmons was and he ended the year as the starting shortstop. No one questioned his defensive value- Jose Iglesias is probably the only better fielding shortstop-but few expected his bat would play as well as it did. Simmons walked as much as he struck out, stole bases at ease, and had some pop. The NL Shortstop scene is crowded with Troy Tulowitzki, Jose Reyes, and Starlin Castro, but Simmons may be the best all around player of any of them. Pete Kozma deserves some mention but he is nowhere close to matching Simmons. Kozma has proved to have some worth as most had written the former first round pick off. He solidified the shortstop position following Rafael Furcal's season ending injury despite spending most of the season as the Memphis Redbirds' second baseman. All the Cardinals need from him is to continue playing mistake free baseball. He has also gotten some clutch hits this September. Advantage: Braves
Left Field: The first of three compelling OF matchups pits Matt Holliday and Martin Prado. Fortunately the Cards have the LFer who will garner MVP support while the Braves have one of the most versatile players in the game. Prado has actually appeared at every IF position this year and was third in the NL in hits. He is a great defender. Holliday, however, is the heart of the Cardinals order. The seven year contract he signed prior to the 2010 season is looking like one of the best long term free agent signings in recent history although his OPS has fallen every year. He still is extremely productive. Luckily the Cards weren't required to play a game in LA. Advantage: Cardinals
Center Field: The second neck and neck competition. Coming into 2011, no Cardinals fan would believe Jon Jay would be the center fielder and leadoff hitter on a Championship team. Colby Rasmus oozed potential and was looking to take the steps to stardom everyone had foretold. The previously overlooked Jay has been a .300 hitter in his major league career and played spectacular CF defense. He hurt himself earlier this year running into the wall after tracking a ball down. He is remarkably consistent posting an OPS between .768 and .780 in each year of his career. He spearheaded "High Sock Sundays". He has swag. The Cardinals are going to take a long look at extending Jay this offseason and I hope they do. Bourn also plays outstanding defense. Bourn also runs a lot. It's clear, however, that his first half of 2011 in Houston is not to be expected going forward. That was the only stretch of Bourn's career he posted an OPS+ above 100 (league average). He may also be slowing down as this was his worst baserunning year since 2008. These are not good facts for a soon to be free agent, but I'm sure Scott Boras has a binder prepared to paint a more favorable picture. I just hope that the Washington Nationals don't buy into Boras's schtick because Bourn has all the makings of a bust free agent. While this is close, I think the edge goes to Jon Jay and the Cardinals, but that may be due to my bias. Advantage: Tie
Right Field: Wow, this one would have been a whole different story on May 30th. On that date Beltran was at .294/.394/.594; Heyward, .233/.327/.413. Since then Heyward is .284/.339/.506 and Carlos is .257/.324/.451. Beltran showed some signs of life at the end of the season so there's hope. It's clear he played through a number of injuries that particularly sapped his power. His arm is still an asset on defense, but that's about it. His range is minimal. Heyward led MLB in UZR and all RFs in WAR. This one really isn't close. Advantage: Braves
Starting Pitcher: The Braves haven't lost in Kris Medlen's last 23 starts over a two year period (he had TJS). Medlen is good. He is not Greg Maddux good though. If Medlen qualified, his 0.4 HR/9 would be the lowest in baseball. He performed light years better by any measure as a starter than a reliever. Kris Medlen is not Stephen Strasburg. He is not a strikeout pitcher. Good teams, like the Cardinals, will hit him. Here is who Medlen has faced as a starter this year: Marlins, Astros, Mets, Padres, Nats, and Rockies. The Astros, Marlins, and Mets were among the worst offensive teams in baseball and the Rockies weren't far ahead. As covered above Lohse has been the picture of consistency this year. I expect strong starts from both pitchers. I'd call this a tie, but that's probably my Cardinals bias. Advantage: Braves
Bullpen: This is where the game is decided. The Cardinals bullpen relies heavily on Edward Mujica, Mitchell Boggs, and Jason Motte. There was a stretch in which those three pitched in order the 7th-9th almost everyday. The wear eventually caught up and all had poor outings. A couple of nights off should do them wonders. Motte closed out game 162 to tie Kimbrel for the league lead in saves but he should be fine. Joe Kelly and Trevor Rosenthal provide heat and the ability to work multiple innings if needed, however it appears that Lance Lynn would be the long man if Lohse falters early. I support that. Fernando Salas hasn't pitched well all year. He should not be used in high leverage situations. Marc Rzepcynski probably won't make the roster. That means the only lefthanded pitcher other than Jaime Garcia is Sam Freeman. This is critical. The Braves are a lefthanded heavy team. As a team their OPS is .721 against righties and .689 against lefties. Sam Freeman was a 32nd round draft pick out of Kansas. He made his major league debut in June and has since pitched 20 innings with a 5.40 ERA. He also has a reverse platoon split with righties hitting .189 and lefties hitting .290. He's a lefty who (small sample warning- please!) doesn't get lefties out. If the game comes down to one of the Braves lefthanded hitters up in a clutch situation, the Cardinals will lose. The Braves bullpen is the stuff of wonders. The only flaw with it is how Fredi Gonzalez utilizes it. It was first or second in bullpen ERA, FIP, and xFIP. Craig Kimbrel strikes out more than half the hitters he faces. Eric O'Flaherty and Jonny Venters are the rare lefthanded pitcher who can consistently get righthanded hitters out. The bullpen as a whole gets groundballs at a 51% clip. I'm not sure who the Braves will go with as the long guy if Medlen has a short outing. Tim Hudson would make sense or they could get multiple innings from each reliever. The Cardinals cannot afford to be down multiple runs when the Braves go to the bullpen. Advantage: Braves
Bench: A deep, versatile bench is critical in for this game. Every player rostered needs to excel at one aspect of the game and serve a purpose. While rosters haven't been announced I anticipate the Cardinals rostering Tony Cruz, Matt Carpenter, Adron Chambers, Skip Schumaker, Shane Robinson, and Ryan Jackson. Robinson doesn't really add much besides replacing the statue that is Carlos Beltran in RF if Chambers is burned as a PR (which is how he should be utilized). Jackson will be included because there is no one else to play SS if Kozma goes down. This group combined for 11 home runs this year so there is absolutely no power threat. They make up for that in versatility. Carpenter can play at least two infield positions and the outfield. Schumaker's positional flexibility and contact hitting are well known. The SB Nation Braves blog speculates the Braves will carry David Ross, Juan Francisco, Reed Johnson, Eric Hinske, Jose Constanza, and Tyler Pastornicky. It's not a great bench but better than the Cardinals. Ross is the best backup catcher in the majors. Pastornicky and Francisco are the Braves answer to the Cards' Jackson and Robinson. Hinske has fallen off a cliff this year but is still dangerous. Johnson is a professional hitter and Jose Constanza is the bad habit Fredi Gonzalez cannot quit. The good news is the Cards have the best contact hitters (Matt Carp/Skip) and fastest baserunner. Both of those factors could play in late situations. Nothing is worse than the PH strikeout which is something Juan Francisco excels at (70 Ks, 205 PAs). Advantage: Tie
Managers: Quick programming note. This next section is going to be harsh. I am 100% aware that I cannot and will never manage a major league team. I do not have the interpersonal skills capable of doing that. Both of these managers excel at that. Mike Matheny in particular is an extraordinary leader. If you haven't read his letter to the parents of his youth baseball team, go do that now. I wish I could be the leader of men that Mike Matheny is. I'm sure Fredi Gonzalez has similar qualities. That being said this may be the worst pair of managers to ever manage a playoff game. Bullpen usage, sac bunts, lineup decisions, etc. Both of these managers do things that make everyone scratch their heads. It goes without saying that the manager is of utmost importance in a one game playoff. I wish TLR would come back for this one game. Buck Showalter is going to make a clown out of Ron Washington in the AL Game. A one game playoff requires a manager to be innovative and deploy solid strategies; A case could be made that the pitcher should never hit for himself. One of these managers is going to lose the game based on a decision he makes. I'm not sure what that decision will be and which will make it but I'm confident that it will happen. One reason I'm not too down on the Cards chances is because Fredi Gonzalez is one guy I'm 100% sure is a worse in game manager than Mike Matheny. I look forward to the Cards scoring in the 8th inning with the heart of their order because Fredi only pitches Craig Kimbrel in save situations. Advantage: Tie
Summary: The Braves are a very, very good team. Their bullpen and defense are elite, if not the best in baseball. If Dan Uggla and Brian McCann had hit anywhere near their career averages, this would unquestionably be the team to beat in the National League. As it stands they are a formidable contender. I was surprised how poor of an offensive team they are though. As I write this the line on this game is Braves -161/+151. This is way too steep. The Cardinals, when they have their act together, are the best team in the National League. They have the starting pitching, the bullpen, and they most certainly have the lineup to win a World Championship. Regardless of who wins this game I am confident they will beat the Nationals in the Division Series. These are two very good baseball teams. In the end, I have to go with my heart. The pick is the Cardinals in a 5-3 ballgame. Look for Allen "Wrench" Craig to do big things and the Mujica, Boggs, Motte operation to shut things down in the late innings. Pray one of the Braves lefthanded bats doesn't come up in a clutch and late situation.
Subscribe to:
Comments (Atom)