Division Series

The Wild Card play in games are over- what a day of baseball. By the Vegas lines the chances of a "Birds Sweep" were approximately 13%. I thought the Cardinals had a great shot at winning, but I thought the Rangers would roll over Joe Saunders and the Orioles. More Orioles magic, I guess. Remarkable that a team manages eight hits (only one for extra bases) and strikes out 12 times yet still scores five runs. Even more remarkable was Ron Washington giving up his DH with three catchers on his roster for this "round". Ron Wash FTW.

As for the Cards, there's no question they benefited from a terrible call. There's really not much to be said for that other than it was terrible. Would the Cards have held on even if Simmons had reached? Hard to say. Turner Field was rocking and all of the Cardinals relievers looked a little rattled. I really liked the way Matheny managed this game. He was aggressive with the bullpen- burning the "long" man, Lance Lynn, for a third of an inning. Lohse appeared to be in a groove when Matheny took him out but Freeman laced a base hit and Uggla missed a home run by a few centimeters. Better one batter early than one batter late. Lohse did more than expected and deserved the win. I thought Matheny deployed the bench very well. Running Chambers was aggressive but the correct move. It was interesting to see the dichotomy with Showalter in that regard. In the top of the ninth Jim Thome reached on a single. Jim Thome is 42 years old and probably never had even average speed. Showalter didn't pinch run for him until he reached third. The broadcasters said Buck did this because he would prefer to keep the superior offensive player should the game go to extra innings. It's also possible that Showalter didn't feel Lew Ford was a significant speed upgrade at that time (Ford eventually pinch ran on third and appeared to be running on contact). Makes you wonder why Xavier Avery wasn't included on the O's roster, but alas they won.

Back to the NL, the Braves played atrocious defense outside of Jason Heyward's phenomenal catch. This was unexpected. Even Andrelton Simmons made an error. It appeared that Simmons was short arming the ball all game and the broadcasters later said he was dealing with a finger injury. Free agent to be Michael Bourn showed his defensive prowess is all speed based as Allen Craig (not fast) scored standing up on a average fly ball. Bourn's throw wasn't even close. The Braves ultimately suffered from poor defense and a lack of timely hits. It happens. They should have won that game. Fredi Gonzalez only left his fingerprints on the game once and it cost them. In the bottom of the second he called for a safety squeeze with Simmons, the eighth hitter. Yes, the pitcher was on deck. Apparently Freeman, who was on third, missed the sign and didn't break. Simmons was out on interference and Medlen weakly grounded out. End of threat.

The Cardinals now turn their attention to the top overall speed in the National League in the Washington Nationals. The major storyline here is that the Nationals are without arguably their most valuable player- Stephen Strasburg. After Strasburg was shut down on September 7th, the Nats went 13-11 (.542). To that point they were 85-53 (.615). Every game between the Nationals and Cardinals occurred after August 30th and squeaked out a 4-3 edge winning three our of four at home. Nationals Park will be rocking for the first playoff baseball in DC since 1933 and you know Busch Stadium will be painted in red as is October tradition. Teddy has won a President's race, but is 2012 the year the Nats win a postseason series? Here's the breakdown:

Catcher: There's not much more to be said about Yadier Molina. He is unquestionably the best defensive catcher in baseball by a wide margin and has matured into one of the best hitters in the league. Yadi is clutch. Yadi does the little things. Yadi has lead the Cardinals in batting average the past two regular seasons. The Nationals got a tough break when Wilson Ramos went down for the season in early May. Then more bad luck hit when Jesus Flores went down. Incredibly Sandy Leon, who played all of 2011 in high A, was hurt immediately after Flores, and the club was forced to turn to journeyman Carlos Maldonado. This wasn't going to cut it in the playoffs so they traded for Kurt Suzuki just after the July 31st deadline. Suzuki has been exactly what the Nats ordered as he has posted a 96 OPS+- a far cry from Flores's 55- and gotten a number of timely hits. Suzuki throws base stealers out a pedestrian 30.1% clip which pales in comparison to Yadi's 47.1%. Yadi basically plays in a different league than Suzuki in all aspects. Advantage: Cardinals

First Base: This is a close one. Both guys hit cleanup for their ballclubs and drove in more than 90 runs. Adam LaRoche missed virtually all of last season and had his best season since 2009. The Nats have a $10 million option for him next year that they will almost assuredly pick up. LaRoche excelled in the power department this year with a .510 slugging percentage. He has the reptation for being one of the most consistent defensive first baseman in the league. For his career he was a significant platoon split but it was not as bad this year. Allen Craig is a better hitter and bested him in every triple slash category. He is not as good a defender. I'll take the stick. Advantage: Cardinals

Second Base: Both of these guys could be playing (or do also play) on the left side of the infield. Add Schumaker to the mix and these may be three of the top five second base arms in the game. That's about the only thing they share. Danny Espinosa is the rare three true outcome second baseman. 541 of his 1,428 (37.88%) major league plate appearances have resulted in either a walk, home run, or strike out. The strikeouts are beginning to get out of hand as Espinosa led the league with 189 this season. Despite that the power and on base allowed him to post an OPS+ of 94. Espinosa is also a switch hitter but showed virtually no platoon split this year which could be a sign of his progression as a hitter as his career OPS from the right side is about 100 points higher than from the left side. Since he is essentially a shortstop playing 2B, Espinosa is very good defensively- the third best by UZR. There's not much more I want to add about Descalsco that I haven't already said. He's the essence of a replacement player and provides value with average or better defense at the specialty infield positions. Advantage: Nationals

Third Base: Another close one. On the hot corner for the Nats is their franchise player who has the second biggest contract on the team and is at best the third most recognized player by the common fan. The fact is when Ryan Zimmerman is healthy he is one of the top third basemen in the league. Few third basemen make plays on short ground balls better than Zimmerman. Many of his errors come from poor throwing mechanics which could be due to injury. Zimmerman battled through a sore shoulder for most of the year and has been boosted by cortisone injections since August. Despite that he had a fine offensive season and was one of four Nats to hit more than 20 home runs, although after posting back to back 7 WAR seasons in 2009-10, many expected big things in his age 27 season. Somewhat concerning on the heels of signing a $100 million + extension is that Zimmerman struck out at the highest rate of his career and had his lowest OBP since 2008. David Freese had a higher average and OBP than Zimmerman and plays similar caliber defense. Both are known as clutch hitters for their respective franchises although Freese's heroics have occurred on a slightly larger stage. Advantage: Tie

Shortstop: If anyone has an explanation for what got into Ian Desmond, I'd love to hear it. Desmond entered the year with 22 home runs in 1,302 major league plate appearances and proceeded to hit 25 in 547 (only 130 games) in his age 26 season. It's very possible Desmond worked with the Nationals hitting staff to hone his swing mechanics as he in years past he always showed power but never generated enough loft or consistent contact to tap into it. In addition to power, Desmond was a 20-20 player and stole 21 bases in an efficient 27 attempts. He does not possess enough speed to be a threat to Yadi unless the pitchers are slow to the plate. Desmond also came into his own in the field and posted his first positive UZR over a full season. All in all it appears this is a young player who had potential (third round pick out of HS) and received the proper instruction to tap into his talent. Desmond should be heralded as a success for the organization. Maybe in three years the same will be said of Peter Kozma. Kozma showed some rookie jitters in his first playoff atmosphere when he bizarrely pulled off the infamous infield fly and double clutched on a would be double play. That is not what Kozma has done for the Cardinals since Rafael Furcal got hurt in Washington in late August. All he needs to do this series is play consistent defense. If he hits, great, but don't expect anything. Advantage: Nationals

Left Field: Michael Morse is my greatest fantasy call ever. I had him as a breakout player prior to the 2011 season- even prior to his outrageous 2011 Grapefruit League- and he delivered. He was hurt to begin 2012 and came back in June. His numbers look a lot better than they actually are. Incredibly he somehow came up as a shortstop and cannot play leftfield. He is regularly replaced by Roger Bernadina in the seventh inning or later. At the plate he managed to decrease his walks even more and strike out a tad more. That's a bad recipe. Despite his batting average falling 12 points his OBP tumbled 39. He had 16 walks in 430 plate appearances. Even Rick Ankiel- who is allergic to walks- had 12 in 171 plate appearances prior to being DFAd. Luckily Morse slugs but even that fell 80 points from last year. The Nats did a great job controlling his arbitration years with a two year extension last year because they surely would have faced a tough decision with Morse. The counting stats are there but all the rate stats are screaming to stay away. In all he was barely above replacement level this year. Matt Holliday will receive significant MVP consideration. He is capable of hitting balls out of any stadium on a line. Interestingly, Holliday was removed for defensive purposes in the Atlanta game, not Carlos Beltran. Holliday is known to be battling a sore back but the back may be the one area of Beltran not bothering him. Regardless, the choice here is easy. MVP candidate vs replacement player. Advantage: Cardinals

Center Field: It's impossible to say anything that hasn't already been said about Bryce Harper. The kid is a phenom and exceeded all the hype surrounding him. I coached a team of 19 year old baseball players this summer and it left me even more in awe of what Bryce is capable of doing. Many of our players struggled remembering signs and their uniforms- let alone play baseball at anywhere near an elite level. Bryce was a hit early on, struggled mightily, then made adjustments and finished extremely strong. For everything he is capable of doing on the field, his makeup is perhaps his most impressive asset. He runs everything out, never gets too down on anything that happens in the game, and is always a play ahead of everyone else on the field. Jon Jay is great and I'm glad he's on the team but Bryce Harper does everything, except hit for average, light years better than Jon Jay, and it's possible Jay's average advantage has a short life if Bryce continues to progress in this fashion. Bryce is the only player in this series who can compete with Yadi's arm strength. The Cards stole a run on a sac fly against Michael Bourn but they'll have to hit it much further to tag up on Bryce. Advantage: Nationals

Right Field: It's hard to communicate how bad the Jayson Werth contract is. The Nats are paying Werth more than the Cardinals are paying Holliday and he is hitting a weak leadoff for them. Werth played exactly half the season but at his pace would have ranked fourth on the Nats in steals. He isn't a great basestealer. What he can do is walk. Had he qualified his OBP would have ranked 16th in the major leagues. He had a somewhat high BABIP but nothing ridiculous. The big story with Werth is the lack of power. His ISO averaged .232 from 2008-2010 but with the Nationals has averaged .149. Yikes. Brandon Phillips had a .148 ISO this year. Great for a second baseman. Terrible for the right fielder paid like a power hitting stud. Fortunately the Nats have Bryce Harper, Ryan Zimmerman, and Adam LaRoche providing above average power behind him. He's a good fit for leadoff for this team but no one else would give a player with these skills that kind of money. It was ridiculed then and will be for the life of the contract. Who knows what to expect from Carlos Beltran. As I write this his numbers over the past 28 days are encouraging- 4 HR, 18/14 K/BB, .301/.414/507. He has been hitting out of the two hole and if he can post a .414 from that position that's perfect. The power is a nice bonus but the big boys are coming up behind him. Carlos hasn't shown much of a platoon split this year so it's nice to break up the inevitable Matt Carp/Skip, Jay lefty lineup turnover. It's really hard to pick a side here. If forced to, I'd go Beltran, but these are two extremely different players who perform their designated roles well. Advantage: Tie

Bench: The Cardinals do not have any right handed threat off the bench. I hope that Adron Chambers stays on the roster as his speed was showcased as an asset in the Atlanta game. He and Shane Robinson can be late inning defensive replacements for the ailing/aging COFs. Matt Carpenter and Skip Schumaker are great left handed pinch hitters. The Nats have a deeper bench. There's no way around that. Roger Bernadina offers comparable speed and defense to Chambers but is solid with the bat (112 OPS+) and much more experienced. Joining Bernadina on the left side of the bench is Chad Tracy who had a remarkable year given he hadn't appeared in a big league game in 2011. Tracy will likely be used in clutch situations as he got a number of timely hits for Washington this year. The biggest power threat off the bench is rookie Tyler Moore. Thankfully he hits righthanded. In 171 PA he had 19 XBH, 10 of which were HR. His OPS+ trailed only LaRoche, Werth, and Desmond on the Nats. He also strikes out an awful lot. The final member of the Nats bench is super utility guy Steve Lombardozzi who is essentially a better version of Descalso and a switch hitter. He flirted with .300 for awhile before finishing at .273/.317/.354. Jesus Flores will be the backup catcher and isn't much better than his counterpart on the Cardinals, Tony Cruz. I wouldn't expect to see him unless Suzuki gets injured. Advantage: Nationals

Gio Gonzalez vs. Adam Wainwright: Gio Gonzalez will be a top three Cy Young finisher which is familiar territory for Adam Wainwright when he's not coming off Tommy John Surgery. The one knit to pick with Gio are his walks. Out of qualified starters his 3.43 BB/9 ranks 15th worse in baseball. He makes up for it by striking batters out at a rate of 9.35 K/9 which led the National League. He also had the 11th lowest BABIP, the lowest HR/9 and HR/FB % in baseball. All of this paints the picture that while Gonzalez is good- he is slightly outperforming his peripherals as evidenced by his 3.38 xFIP. That still places him among the top 20 pitchers in the game. Gonzalez had six starts where he allowed more than three runs. He also had six starts allowing zero runs. Oddly enough he has a reverse platoon split with LHs posting an OPS more than 60 points higher in his career. This trend continued in 2012. The good news for the Cardinals is that Gio will be starting Game 1 on the road where his ERA jumps to 3.31 in addition to jumps in his walk and home run rates. While the Nats could be described as coddling Stephen Strasburg both in game and with a season innings cap, the Cards turned Wainwright lose all season. Waino just missed throwing 200 innings. His strikeout rate tied his career high as a starter and his walk rate and home run rate were in line with his career norms. Waino struggled because he was just too hittable. His hit rate and opponent batting average were both the highest since 2007- his first year as a starter. The good news for the Cardinals is Waino got noticeably sharper over the course of the season. His ERA by month- 7.32, 3, 5.21, 2.76, 2.75, and 4.20. Waino made two starts against the Nationals and had very mixed results getting shelled on the road and pitching very well at home. Advantage: Nationals

Jordan Zimmermann vs. Jaime Garcia: This matchup would be different if it were in DC, but this is the game two matchup in Busch Stadium. For his career, Jaime has a 2.48 home ERA vs 4.47 road ERA. He had a great start in Game 2 of the 2011 World Series- also at home. Jaime was injured for a majority of the year but had peripherals nearly identical to last year. He is only 25 years old and still has a shot to develop into a strong number two starter. Zimmermann is in year two of his recovery from Tommy John surgery. The Nationals shut him down last year after 161 innings setting the precedent for the Strasburg treatment. It looked smart as Zimmermann came out and pitched great the entire season but particularly down the stretch. He had a 2.61 ERA over his last five starts and won all five games. There was some concern that he hit a wall around the 160 inning mark as he posted a 4.39 ERA in five August starts. His home start against the Cards was a disaster as he allowed eight earned runs and was chased before the fourth inning. He threw a quality start against the Cards in St. Louis in his final start of the season. For as good as his stuff is, Zimmermann doesn't strike out as many hitters as expected. He doesn't walk many batters either finishing eighth among qualified NL starters in BB/9. This will be a great game. Advantage: Tie

Edwin Jackson: In the past month Edwin showed why no one was willing to give him a multiyear commitment at a high AAV last offseason. Over his last six starts he allowed six or more runs twice but he also had two starts of eight innings and one or fewer earned runs. He's an enigma and that is never going to change. He has worked with Don Cooper and Dave Duncan- the two best pitching coaches in the game- and neither were able to get consistency out of Edwin. He is what he is. He's a great fifth starter and an above average four, but other than that he can't be relied on. He has thrown at least 180 innings every year since 2008. He cut his walk rate and increased his strikeouts this year but also allowed significantly more home runs. Every time he takes the mound he's either going to throw a gem or blow up. There is little in between.

Chris Carpenter: A game three matchup between Edwin and Carp favors the Cards in my opinion. Carp has only made three starts this year but he has appeared to get better in each of them. In his final start against the Reds he cruised through the first five innings before getting hit around a bit in the sixth. Carp is the ultimate competitor. If he gives the Cards six innings and two runs- they'll win that game. There's a great chance that happens.

Kyle Lohse: I wrote a lot about Lohse in my Atlanta game breakdown and he did what he's continued to do all year in that game. He even struck out a good amount of hitters. He was a little hittable and Matheny made the right call to get him out of there after 5.2 innings. Lohse got hammered in Nats Park in late August but I wouldn't expect that to happen again.

Ross Detwiler: It's unknown how the Nats will line up their rotation passed the first two games, but there's a strong case to be made for Detwiler to start over Jackson despite spending the entire season as the fifth starter. Detwiler kind of gets by on smoke and mirrors. He gets 50% groundballs but doesn't strike anyone out. He helps himself by not walking anyone. While his ERA was a healthy 3.40, FIP and xFIP suggest it should have been over 4. If there's a Game 4 matchup of Lohse vs. Detwiler, I would expect the Cardinals to win the matchup.

Bullpen: The Nats bullpen carries a 3.23 ERA; The Cardinals bullpen, 3.90. That looks like a huge difference but the peripheral stats aren't as drastic. The Cards walked fewer (8.2 vs 9.1%), got more GBs (46.8 vs 43.6%) and struck out about the same (21.7 vs 21.8%). The Nats were better at preventing hits and stranding baserunners. The Cardinals bullpen is built on the strength of Edward Mujica, Mitchell Boggs, and Jason Motte. Boggs and Motte each threw over 72 innings and posted sub three ERAs while routinely touching 97+ MPH. It appears that Lance Lynn will be used out of the bullpen for the playoffs and he looked great coming into the 6th inning in Atlanta. If Lynn is able to provide a bridge to the late inning, high leverage situations- that's exactly what the Cards have been missing. Lynn will pick up Salas's innings. That's a great thing. If he is also able to be used in the seventh or eighth to give Mujica or Boggs a rest, the Cards will win this series. The Nats counter with Tyler Clippard, Craig Stammen, and Drew Storen. Storen missed most of the season with tendonitis but came back and wrestled the closer's job away from Clippard. Clippard may finally be showing signs of wear as his WHIP and ERA were both the highest in his major league career. He leads relievers in IP since 2010 at 252. Regardless he still strikes batters out at a high rate. His walk and strand rates were bad for him this year. Stammen is very versatile and is capable of pitching multiple innings. He is very consistent, but not unhittable. Drew Storen only threw 30 innings this year, but showed signs of returning to 2011 form. That year he closed out 43 games for the Nats. He didn't give up a single home run this year which contributed significantly to his low ERA. Sean Burnett is easily the best lefthanded reliever in this series. He neutralizes lefties. Fortunately Matt Carpenter, John Jay, and Skip Schumaker aren't in the heart of the order and counted on for run production. The Nats will also use Ryan Mattheus in low leverage situations. He is an entirely ordinary reliever. I can't bring myself to say the Cardinals bullpen is better but I think there is an excellent chance for the Cardinals pen to outpitch the Nats in this series. The Cardinals 7-9th inning roles are much more solidified and have been more consistent down the stretch. If Lynn is able to provide another shut down right arm that would be huge. Bryce Harper and Adam LaRoche are threats from the left side that Marc Rzepcynski will be counted on to get out once per game. The book is open on that one. Advantage: Nationals

Manager: My feelings on Mike Matheny are well documented but as I wrote above, he had an outstanding game against Atlanta. If Matheny is ever called as great a manager as Davey Johnson, it will be a tremendous complement. Johnson sports a career record of 1286-955 (.564) and has won one of the two World Series he has managed in. He should win his Second Manager of the Year award this year. Per Baseball Prospectus, the Nats are in the bottom third of sacrifice bunting teams. The only knit to pick with Davey is he may have rode his bullpen too hard as the unit threw over 500 innings, 7th in MLB. It's hard to imagine a scenario where Matheny has the advantage against anyone and the fact that it's Davey in the other dugout makes this an easy decision. Advantage: Nationals

Summary: I think MLB is going to regret starting these wild card series in the lower seeded city more than the one game playoff. Wait, that's not possible. It's still not that great a decision. As a Cardinals fan I'm thrilled they get two games at home. The Cardinals are an outstanding team at home (50-31, .617) and below average on the road (38-43, .469). The Cards could certainly win both games at home and put the Nats in a very tough spot in DC. While the whole team plays well at home, the pitching staff shows exceptional comfort there as their ERA is almost a full run lower at Busch Stadium than on the road. Going to DC, however, has been an extremely bad experience for the Cards. Since 2009 they are 4-10 in Nats Park with some dreadful losses. This year they were outscored 31-14 (one UER in the first 18 innings) in their four game set there. Until lately Nats Park hasn't been a particularly tough place to play. Heck in 2009 and 2010 for sure there were more Cardinals fans there than Nats. Maybe they need to stay at a different hotel?

The bottom line is to win this series the Cards need to beat Gio Gonzalez at least once. If they beat him twice (Game 1 and 4 or 5), they win the series. A split at home wouldn't be the worst as Jaime should turn in a solid performance. Game 3 will matchup Carp and Edwin (in this case Edlose) Jackson. Any Cardinals fan should like the team's chances there. EJax is a weighted coin of subliminal and atrocious pitching performances. The Cardinals shouldn't be afraid of the Nats pitching and the Cardinals pitching has been solid in September and October with a 3.33 ERA. The Nats, on the other hand, had their worst month posting a 3.75 ERA. The Nats, however, outhit the Cards over the same period hitting 53 home runs on their way to a team OPS of .819 against the Cards 26 home runs and OPS of .730. For the season, the Cardinals scored 34 more runs than the Nats while the Nats allowed 54 fewer. That's a net difference of 20 runs and three Pythagorean wins. These teams are very evenly matched but it seems like all facets of the game are going the Cardinals way right now. They have more postseason experience on the field and have already gotten the first game jitters out of the way.

It's difficult to see either team sweeping. I can't see the Cardinals winning 3-1 either. That would require a lot to go their way and I still don't know what to expect from Carpenter. I see this series going the distance and the Cardinals winning Game Five. Their lineup is more consistent and they are better prepared for postseason play. The four starters should all pitch six strong innings before turning it over to Mujica, Boggs, and Motte.