Game 163

I'm sorry Bud Selig, but I can't call what it happening Friday the playoffs. When the Braves and Rangers, two of the top five teams in baseball, could miss out on having an opportunity to compete for a World Championship, that's not good for the game. It's great that the Cardinals have a shot after a lackluster regular season but the Braves are clearly a better team. That being said it's one game and anything can happen so let's break this down.

First of all, I've had a lot of conversations regarding the starting pitcher for this game. There's only one right answer and fortunately Matheny came to it. Kyle Lohse starts this game. Period. Lohse's time with the Cardinals was really A Tale of Two Cities. In 2009 and especially 2010, he was one of the worst starting pitchers in baseball. After a cutting edge medical procedure, Lohse rebounded to his 2008 form and threw just under 400 innings of sub 3.20 ERA baseball since. 2012 was Lohse's best season yet as he was remarkably consistent only surrendering more than three runs in six of his lead leading 33 starts. It's a shame the business interests of the Cardinals and Lohse won't align this offseason because not only is he a great pitcher but he's a great member of the community and a real stand up guy. Kyle Lohse will be missed in St. Louis.

Those knocking Lohse point to his extremely lackluster postseason record. He is 0-4 in four postseason starts. As mentioned above, Lohse is a new pitcher this year and I expect his success to continue. There aren't any other reasonable options. Yes, Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright are postseason legends in Cardinals history, but they cannot be expected to start this game. Carpenter has made three starts since October 28, 2011. He has been better than expected but if his name weren't Chris Carpenter, no fan would want him on the bump in Atlanta. Carp is a great competitor, but the stuff isn't there yet. He will contribute to this team's playoff run, but not in Atlanta. Wainwright's performance this year has been a mixed bag. He has shown signs of his brilliance but at other times looked like the guy pitching for the first time after Tommy John surgery. There's no question he's in the playoff rotation but to roll the dice with him in a single elimination game is too risky.

Now with that explained, let's examine the match ups.

Catcher: Coming into 2012, everyone knew that Yadier Molina was the best defensive catcher in baseball, but to suggest he would be a MUCH better hitter than Brian McCann would raise eyebrows. How bad a 2012 has McCann had? His backup, David Ross, has an OPS 72 points higher. McCann put up a .230/.300/.399 line. McCann had a single month with an OPS higher than .798. On the other side, Yadier Molina did enough to garner significant NL MVP consideration as he set career highs in virtually every category (including 12 SBs!). His defense was phenomenal as usual. The Braves really don't run that much (101 SBs, 80 of which belong to Bourn (41), Heyward (21), and Prado (17)). If they run, Yadi will shut them down. Advantage: Cardinals

First Base: When looking through the numbers, I was surprised how middle of the road Freddie Freeman is. His wRC+is in the bottom half of qualified first basemen. He is only 22 and he avoided a sophmore slump by posting an extremely similar line to 2011 so he could still develop into the monster that is Allen Craig. When healthy in 2011 and 2012, Craig has hit .309/.357/.532. Over that period, the only 1Bs with 600+ PAs and a higher slugging percentage are Miguel Cabrera, Nike Napoli, Joey Votto, Prince Fielder, and Lance Berkman. Craig's problem is staying the field. He barely qualified for the leaderboards this year. Defensively he gets the job done. He can still play OF if needed. I don't think we will ever see him at 2B again. It would be nice to have a stick like that at 2B (I am not serious about this) but keeping him healthy is the utmost priority and the way to do that is playing him at 1B. Advantage: Cardinals

Second Base: Second base is a black hole position for the Cardinals. Ever since Mark Grudzielanek left following the 2006 season it has been filled by a cast of characters including Hector Luna, Adam Kennedy, Aaron Miles, Felipe Lopez, etc. Daniel Descalso hasn't done anything to own the position. He hits lefthanded, has a strong arm, and good range. The range is what separates him from Skip Schumaker and why he has gotten a majority of the playing time down the stretch. Descalso had some tough BABIP luck this year but the strikeouts are getting awfully high. Even the current incarnation of Dan Uggla is better than Descalso. Uggla isn't a good defender (best UZR since 2006, first positive since 2008) but he tied for third on the Braves in OBP and fifth among qualified 2B. For as much bad press as he gets, Uggla is still an extremely valuable second baseman. Advantage: Braves

Third Base: Both third baseman deserve more than I'm going to write about. Chipper Jones is a legend and David Freese is an October hero. Their OPSs were within 7 points of each other this year as remarkably both were healthy for nearly the entire season. At this point Freese offers more defensively. The only thing Chipper does better than David is walk. A player with Chipper's skillset is perfect for the two hole but no manager has the guts to bat him anywhere than the heart of the order. A very close matchup but I'm siding with David. Advantage: Cardinals 

Shortstop: The Braves entered Spring Training with no clear shortstop. Most thought that Tyler Pastornicky would get the job and while that ended up happening, Andrelton Simmons almost made the team with no at bats above the Carolina League. Eventually, the Braves realized what a special player Simmons was and he ended the year as the starting shortstop. No one questioned his defensive value- Jose Iglesias is probably the only better fielding shortstop-but few expected his bat would play as well as it did. Simmons walked as much as he struck out, stole bases at ease, and had some pop. The NL Shortstop scene is crowded with Troy Tulowitzki, Jose Reyes, and Starlin Castro, but Simmons may be the best all around player of any of them. Pete Kozma deserves some mention but he is nowhere close to matching Simmons. Kozma has proved to have some worth as most had written the former first round pick off. He solidified the shortstop position following Rafael Furcal's season ending injury despite spending most of the season as the Memphis Redbirds' second baseman. All the Cardinals need from him is to continue playing mistake free baseball. He has also gotten some clutch hits this September. Advantage: Braves

Left Field: The first of three compelling OF matchups pits Matt Holliday and Martin Prado. Fortunately the Cards have the LFer who will garner MVP support while the Braves have one of the most versatile players in the game. Prado has actually appeared at every IF position this year and was third in the NL in hits. He is a great defender. Holliday, however, is the heart of the Cardinals order. The seven year contract he signed prior to the 2010 season is looking like one of the best long term free agent signings in recent history although his OPS has fallen every year. He still is extremely productive. Luckily the Cards weren't required to play a game in LA. Advantage: Cardinals

Center Field: The second neck and neck competition. Coming into 2011, no Cardinals fan would believe Jon Jay would be the center fielder and leadoff hitter on a Championship team. Colby Rasmus oozed potential and was looking to take the steps to stardom everyone had foretold. The previously overlooked Jay has been a .300 hitter in his major league career and played spectacular CF defense. He hurt himself earlier this year running into the wall after tracking a ball down. He is remarkably consistent posting an OPS between .768 and .780 in each year of his career. He spearheaded "High Sock Sundays". He has swag. The Cardinals are going to take a long look at extending Jay this offseason and I hope they do. Bourn also plays outstanding defense. Bourn also runs a lot. It's clear, however, that his first half of 2011 in Houston is not to be expected going forward. That was the only stretch of Bourn's career he posted an OPS+ above 100 (league average). He may also be slowing down as this was his worst baserunning year since 2008. These are not good facts for a soon to be free agent, but I'm sure Scott Boras has a binder prepared to paint a more favorable picture. I just hope that the Washington Nationals don't buy into Boras's schtick because Bourn has all the makings of a bust free agent. While this is close, I think the edge goes to Jon Jay and the Cardinals, but that may be due to my bias. Advantage: Tie

Right Field: Wow, this one would have been a whole different story on May 30th. On that date Beltran was at .294/.394/.594; Heyward, .233/.327/.413. Since then Heyward is .284/.339/.506 and Carlos is .257/.324/.451. Beltran showed some signs of life at the end of the season so there's hope. It's clear he played through a number of injuries that particularly sapped his power. His arm is still an asset on defense, but that's about it. His range is minimal. Heyward led MLB in UZR and all RFs in WAR. This one really isn't close. Advantage: Braves

Starting Pitcher: The Braves haven't lost in Kris Medlen's last 23 starts over a two year period (he had TJS). Medlen is good. He is not Greg Maddux good though. If Medlen qualified, his 0.4 HR/9 would be the lowest in baseball. He performed light years better by any measure as a starter than a reliever. Kris Medlen is not Stephen Strasburg. He is not a strikeout pitcher. Good teams, like the Cardinals, will hit him. Here is who Medlen has faced as a starter this year: Marlins, Astros, Mets, Padres, Nats, and Rockies. The Astros, Marlins, and Mets were among the worst offensive teams in baseball and the Rockies weren't far ahead. As covered above Lohse has been the picture of consistency this year. I expect strong starts from both pitchers. I'd call this a tie, but that's probably my Cardinals bias. Advantage: Braves 

Bullpen: This is where the game is decided. The Cardinals bullpen relies heavily on Edward Mujica, Mitchell Boggs, and Jason Motte. There was a stretch in which those three pitched in order the 7th-9th almost everyday. The wear eventually caught up and all had poor outings. A couple of nights off should do them wonders. Motte closed out game 162 to tie Kimbrel for the league lead in saves but he should be fine. Joe Kelly and Trevor Rosenthal provide heat and the ability to work multiple innings if needed, however it appears that Lance Lynn would be the long man if Lohse falters early. I support that. Fernando Salas hasn't pitched well all year. He should not be used in high leverage situations. Marc Rzepcynski probably won't make the roster. That means the only lefthanded pitcher other than Jaime Garcia is Sam Freeman. This is critical. The Braves are a lefthanded heavy team. As a team their OPS is .721 against righties and .689 against lefties. Sam Freeman was a 32nd round draft pick out of Kansas. He made his major league debut in June and has since pitched 20 innings with a 5.40 ERA. He also has a reverse platoon split with righties hitting .189 and lefties hitting .290. He's a lefty who (small sample warning- please!) doesn't get lefties out. If the game comes down to one of the Braves lefthanded hitters up in a clutch situation, the Cardinals will lose. The Braves bullpen is the stuff of wonders. The only flaw with it is how Fredi Gonzalez utilizes it. It was first or second in bullpen ERA, FIP, and xFIP. Craig Kimbrel strikes out more than half the hitters he faces. Eric O'Flaherty and Jonny Venters are the rare lefthanded pitcher who can consistently get righthanded hitters out. The bullpen as a whole gets groundballs at a 51% clip. I'm not sure who the Braves will go with as the long guy if Medlen has a short outing. Tim Hudson would make sense or they could get multiple innings from each reliever. The Cardinals cannot afford to be down multiple runs when the Braves go to the bullpen. Advantage: Braves

Bench: A deep, versatile bench is critical in for this game. Every player rostered needs to excel at one aspect of the game and serve a purpose. While rosters haven't been announced I anticipate the Cardinals rostering Tony Cruz, Matt Carpenter, Adron Chambers, Skip Schumaker, Shane Robinson, and Ryan Jackson. Robinson doesn't really add much besides replacing the statue that is Carlos Beltran in RF if Chambers is burned as a PR (which is how he should be utilized). Jackson will be included because there is no one else to play SS if Kozma goes down. This group combined for 11 home runs this year so there is absolutely no power threat. They make up for that in versatility. Carpenter can play at least two infield positions and the outfield. Schumaker's positional flexibility and contact hitting are well known. The SB Nation Braves blog speculates the Braves will carry David Ross, Juan Francisco, Reed Johnson, Eric Hinske, Jose Constanza, and Tyler Pastornicky. It's not a great bench but better than the Cardinals. Ross is the best backup catcher in the majors. Pastornicky and Francisco are the Braves answer to the Cards' Jackson and Robinson. Hinske has fallen off a cliff this year but is still dangerous. Johnson is a professional hitter and Jose Constanza is the bad habit Fredi Gonzalez cannot quit. The good news is the Cards have the best contact hitters (Matt Carp/Skip) and fastest baserunner. Both of those factors could play in late situations. Nothing is worse than the PH strikeout which is something Juan Francisco excels at (70 Ks, 205 PAs). Advantage: Tie

Managers: Quick programming note. This next section is going to be harsh. I am 100% aware that I cannot and will never manage a major league team. I do not have the interpersonal skills capable of doing that. Both of these managers excel at that. Mike Matheny in particular is an extraordinary leader. If you haven't read his letter to the parents of his youth baseball team, go do that now. I wish I could be the leader of men that Mike Matheny is. I'm sure Fredi Gonzalez has similar qualities. That being said this may be the worst pair of managers to ever manage a playoff game. Bullpen usage, sac bunts, lineup decisions, etc. Both of these managers do things that make everyone scratch their heads. It goes without saying that the manager is of utmost importance in a one game playoff. I wish TLR would come back for this one game. Buck Showalter is going to make a clown out of Ron Washington in the AL Game. A one game playoff requires a manager to be innovative and deploy solid strategies; A case could be made that the pitcher should never hit for himself. One of these managers is going to lose the game based on a decision he makes. I'm not sure what that decision will be and which will make it but I'm confident that it will happen. One reason I'm not too down on the Cards chances is because Fredi Gonzalez is one guy I'm 100% sure is a worse in game manager than Mike Matheny. I look forward to the Cards scoring in the 8th inning with the heart of their order because Fredi only pitches Craig Kimbrel in save situations. Advantage: Tie

Summary: The Braves are a very, very good team. Their bullpen and defense are elite, if not the best in baseball. If Dan Uggla and Brian McCann had hit anywhere near their career averages, this would unquestionably be the team to beat in the National League. As it stands they are a formidable contender. I was surprised how poor of an offensive team they are though. As I write this the line on this game is Braves -161/+151. This is way too steep. The Cardinals, when they have their act together, are the best team in the National League. They have the starting pitching, the bullpen, and they most certainly have the lineup to win a World Championship. Regardless of who wins this game I am confident they will beat the Nationals in the Division Series. These are two very good baseball teams. In the end, I have to go with my heart. The pick is the Cardinals in a 5-3 ballgame. Look for Allen "Wrench" Craig to do big things and the Mujica, Boggs, Motte operation to shut things down in the late innings. Pray one of the Braves lefthanded bats doesn't come up in a clutch and late situation.