Sportsbetting.com is offering a bevy of props related to Derek Jeter and his inevitable 3,000 career hit. Here's the first batch I will analyze (All odds are as of April 7, 2011):
Game Number 61.5 (June 8.5): Before -120, After -120
Before 6/21 (Game 74): Yes -400, No +250
To determine when Derek would get his 3000th hit, I started with his current stats (7 games, 6 hits, only 68 more!) and projected forward. To project his forward hit rate, I used historical yearly averages, historical monthly splits, and systems' projections prior to this year. The schedule used to project does not include a makeup date for the April 6th rainout vs Minnesota. If this game occurs between now and the date the props hit, everything will need to be moved forward in time.
Historical Yearly Averages- Projects Derek to perform at his current level for 2011 and historical rates across his career, 2009, and 2010.
Derek certainly isn't the hitter he was two years ago, but he should improve greatly upon his current .231 average. 2010 was the worst year of his career and even if he continues to hit at that pace, he will be very close to the June 8th prop.
Historical Monthly Splits- Projects Derek to perform at his monthly split level for 2010, 2009, and career going forward. For 2010, this would be his April, May, and June performance for those individual months.
Even though last year ended up being the worst year of Derek's career, he was a .302 hitter through April and May. Coincidently enough, he hit almost the same over those two months in 2009 (regarded as one of, if not the best year of his career). In 2010, he hit much better in May while in 2009 he hit better in April. Either way, he is a strong hitter over the first two months of the season.
Projection Systems- I used PECOTA, Fantasy 411's Composite Projection, Bill James, Marcel, and ZiPs.
It's not surprising the projection systems paint the bleakest picture for Derek going forward. Even the most optimistic system (Bill James) has him failing to get a hit by June 8.5. All of them, however, have him recording it before June 21st.
Conclusions:
I would bet after June 8.5. It's highly unlikely Jeter begins to hit like he did in 2009 and even his career rate leaves the bettor with little margin for error. With the possibility of off days (unaccounted for), additional rainouts, and injury, the after looks even better. I do believe Derek will get his 3000th hit before June 21st. If Derek hits .225 from here on out, he will record his 3000th hit on that date (assuming no days off). Derek is remarkably durable and should play nearly everyday: He has not suffered from day to day injuries. There's little statistical support for him getting the hit after June 21st. I suspect laying 400 will scare many bettors off.
Part II will feature:
Where: Yankee Stadium -190, Away +145
When: Day +300, Night -500
The current sheets show what these conditions will be on the day the various methods have Derek getting #3000, but I will analyze the schedule around those dates.
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