Couldn't get this posted before the games started tonight, sorry.
I'm not a big hockey fan and by no means am I an expert: I bet exactly zero hockey games this year. I tried to apply some tactics from baseball and basketball to the hockey playoffs and see if I could find anything worth betting. Even though my numbers show some very good bets, I think there are some flaws in my calculations. First, I used raw winning percentage as the basis for the log5 simulation. This percentage included shootout wins and losses equivalent to regular wins or losses. The skills required to win a shootout are much different than a regular game. Second, I did not make an adjustment for home ice advantage (although my numbers suggest the higher seed is the clear play in most cases and accounting for home ice would skew it even more in the favorites direction). I'm concerned that my numbers suggest all but one favorite is the bet. Are bettors really overrating the underdog that much? I know hot goalies have been able to make some very deep runs in the playoffs, so maybe that is in effect.
Odds from Sportsbetting.com.
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