It's no secret that Derek Jeter is limping towards the 3,000 hit mark. I looked at some of the odds offered a couple of weeks ago in this post. Here are some of the current odds offered by sbet:
If the schedule holds (and with all the rainouts this year, that would have plus odds), the Yankees will play game 61 on June 10th at home against the Indians. If you recall, in the previous post on Jeter's 3,000th hit, sbet offered odds for specific dates, June 8th was one of the dates. It appears to be a near certainty that he will not record his 3,000th hit by then as he is 32 hits away and the Yankees have 19 games in that time span. Will the extra two games offered by this bet change the outlook?
No. Projecting Jeter forward using Baseball Prospectus's Depth Charts, the ZiPS in season projections, and his current pace all point to him recording his 3,000th hit at least six games after game #61.
Pace: 71-73 @Reds
BP: 67 vs Rangers, 68-69 @Cubs
ZiPS: 70 @Cubs, 71-72 @Reds
The opponent odds suggest that the market believes Derek will improve his current pace and even outhit BP's and ZiPS's projections since the Red Sox (Games 58-60, +300) and Indians (61-64, +450) have much shorter odds than the Cubs (68-70, +900) and Reds (71-73, +1200). It would be quite an upset if Jeter recorded the hit before game 61.5. Out of 39 games played, he has only had more than two hits twice. If he gets four ABs/G for the next 21 games (through game 61), he would have to hit .381 to get his 3,000th hit. There is absolutely zero statistical evidence to suggest he can do this.
No comments:
Post a Comment