Colby Rasmus and the HS Class of 2005

It's no secret that the 2005 MLB Draft was one of the greatest of all time. Out of the many great players selected, the quintet that was most interesting to me was the high school outfielders drafted in the first round. This group included the first overall pick, Justin Upton, who was called the best high school outfielder since Ken Griffey Jr. and was the younger brother of BJ who had been drafted second (probably should have gone first) overall in 2002. Justin had been on scouts' radar since the age of 14 and by all accounts combined phenomenal athleticism with advanced baseball skills. The rest of the HS outfield class included:

• Cameron Maybin 10th to Detroit
• Andrew McCutchen 11th to Pittsburgh
• Jay Bruce 12th to Cincinnati
• Colby Rasmus 28th to St. Louis

My favorite team in any sport, by a significant margin, is the St. Louis Cardinals. I watch every game and will be heartbroken if Albert leaves at the end of the season (My sabermetric hat is in the closet for this one). That being said, I've read about and watched more of Colby Rasmus than the average baseball fan. I was thrilled when the Cards did the "right" thing and kept him on the big league roster out of spring training in 2009. I was less thrilled when Rasmus didn't get everyday playing time in his first two seasons. In 2009, he lost the time to Chris Duncan and Rick Ankiel; In 2010, he was benched against left handed pitchers despite having a fine track record. The 2010 season involved a controversy that resulted in Albert Pujols saying if Rasmus did not want to be part of the team, he should leave. It became evident that Colby had demanded a trade, but after a "talk" with Albert, he rescinded the demand. 

His 2011 campaign has been disappointing thus far. This led me to nominate Colby as an overrated player in response to this tweet from BP stat guru Colin Wyers. Over and underrated are tricky terms to use. If everyone believes something is underrated, is it still underrated? No. For something to truly be over or underrated, the majority of people have to believe describing the item with that term is incorrect. 

Fortunately for this post, Colin didn't believe I was correct and even retweeted with his comment to show all his followers how offbase I was. He might not agree that Rasmus is overrated, but the way he challenged my suggestion, by saying Rasmus couldn't be overrated because he'd start for most teams, doesn't work because his overrated player, Craig Kimbrel, would play a prominent role in most teams' bullpens. So the perception is that Colby can't possibly be overrated. 

First, let's spell out what Colby is. Colby is a potential five tool player. His weakest skill is his arm, but that's not too important for a center fielder. He could provide gold glove defense due to his speed and instincts. He could hit 30 home runs in a year. It doesn't look like he'll be a .300 hitter, but consistent .280s with plenty of doubles is foreseeable. This all adds up to a very valuable player. The problem is Colby is in his third full season in the majors and hasn't developed at all. Part of this, in my opinion, has to do with the relationship between him and LaRussa, but a lot of it is on Colby. He frequently makes mental mistakes in the field and on the bases. At the plate, his strikeout rate, while down from 2010, is up from his rookie year in 2009. The power is not showing up: His ISO is lower than 2009 levels. He is a very inconsistent hitter and needs to improve his approach at bat to at bat. 

Watching him everyday has led me to believe he won't be a star, but will be a slightly better than league average centerfielder. Plenty of Cardinals fans are calling for the team to trade him. Unless you are a big believer in Jon Jay (you shouldn't be), the Cards shouldn't do this unless they can get an attractive package in return. Colby's value is low right now, so that seems unlikely. 

How does Colby compare to his draft classmates? (chart from Fangraphs)

I've omitted Cameron Maybin because he only has 4 career WAR. Rasmus lags the rest of the group. I actually believe Andrew McCutchen is one of the underrated players in the game and this shows he's an elite talent. This year, Rasmus trails the entire group. Maybin isn't qualified for the leaderboard, but has accumulated 1.8 WAR, ahead of Colby's 1.4.

Colby's development has stagnated. Upton, McCutchen, and Bruce look to be fixtures in the NL All Star outfield for years to come. Due to Maybin's provide excellent defense, he will continue to provide excellent value even by hitting at league average levels. There's still time left for Colby to break out, but it's possible the place for that to happen won't be in St. Louis.