Just a quick update to my survivor strategy going into Week 1. Obviously the big news in the NFL is that Peyton Manning is out indefinitely. This has repercussions on the whole strategy as I had planned on using the Colts in Week 12. The Week 1 line for the Texans-Colts game has also changed drastically: With Manning the line would be Colts -3/4, without him it's Texans -10. Here are the changes.
Week 1: Texans
Week 12: San Diego (Former Week 1 team)
Week 15: New York Giants (Replacing Texans)
Thursday, September 8, 2011
Monday, August 29, 2011
NFL Survivor Week 1
Survival pools are one of my favorite things to do during the NFL season. I compete in the simplest variety- pick one team to win straight up each week (of course the team can't be used more than once). More competitive pools force contestants to pick two teams and in some cases the team(s) must win against the spread.
For my purposes, I have a clear strategy that I've used the past two years. I compile an Excel spreadsheet of all the point spreads for each game of the season, then I find the combination of picks that fit the criteria (one team per week, only use each team once) that maximizes the number of points I have in my favor over the course of the season. This is the perfect thing to use the Excel Solver add on, but the free version won't accept this many inputs and I don't want to pay $200 for the paid version; I think I do a good enough job eyeballing it.
Here's my strategy going into week 1:
A couple of notes:
For my purposes, I have a clear strategy that I've used the past two years. I compile an Excel spreadsheet of all the point spreads for each game of the season, then I find the combination of picks that fit the criteria (one team per week, only use each team once) that maximizes the number of points I have in my favor over the course of the season. This is the perfect thing to use the Excel Solver add on, but the free version won't accept this many inputs and I don't want to pay $200 for the paid version; I think I do a good enough job eyeballing it.
Here's my strategy going into week 1:
A couple of notes:
- Just pick whoever is playing the Cardinals or Panthers.
- Every division is picked except the NFC West which is picked against.
- It's looking more and more like Peyton Manning won't play in Week 1 vs Houston. The game has been taken off the board. Once Manning's status is clear, the Texans could be in the mix for the week 1 selection.
- Looking at every single point spread is a good exercise. For example, the Bengals, my week 16 selection, are favored by seven points in that game against the Cardinals. I don't think the Bengals should be favored by seven points against a high school team. They'll probably win because the Cardinals won't be very good, but I except that line to be much tighter come kickoff.
Sunday, August 21, 2011
StarStreet
I first heard about StarStreet at the MIT Sports Analytics Conference in March. Some of you may remember Protrade; StarStreet is trying to do the same thing except it uses real money. When StarStreet first started trading, there was no backing to the players. It made no sense. The only way to make money was to buy a player and hope the site grew and people would want to buy popular players. It seemed like a short lived idea and within a month or two, the market had stalled because the site had stopped growing. I know of at least one person who made money though.
On August 1st, StarStreet announced a new valuation system based on player performance (here). There is still one aspect I'm a little unclear about and that's the idea of proportional value. In the actual stock market everything can go down or up independently of each other. If Apple blows out its earnings report, if will go up even if Cisco does too. For StarStreet, if Jose Bautista hits three home runs, he will only go up if the other offered players do not increase their value to the same extent.
Since the new valuation system was started with around 100 games of data, the final payouts based on relative fantasy points were already priced into the StarStreet determined IPO. The only way a player could see a substantial change in value would be an injury and since StarStreet doesn't allow short sales (yet?), there's no way to make money off that.
Nevertheless, here is a chart of the StarStreet offered players with their final projected price vs. last traded price. I used the ZiPS RoS projections available at Fangraphs.
It's not surprising to see the players (Ubaldo and Liriano) with good track records but underperforming this season be projected to return the most value. As I write this, Ubaldo is getting shelled in Detroit so I wouldn't go buying his shares just yet. As I wrote above, I wouldn't expected any drastic returns from the MLB market.
On August 1st, StarStreet announced a new valuation system based on player performance (here). There is still one aspect I'm a little unclear about and that's the idea of proportional value. In the actual stock market everything can go down or up independently of each other. If Apple blows out its earnings report, if will go up even if Cisco does too. For StarStreet, if Jose Bautista hits three home runs, he will only go up if the other offered players do not increase their value to the same extent.
Since the new valuation system was started with around 100 games of data, the final payouts based on relative fantasy points were already priced into the StarStreet determined IPO. The only way a player could see a substantial change in value would be an injury and since StarStreet doesn't allow short sales (yet?), there's no way to make money off that.
Nevertheless, here is a chart of the StarStreet offered players with their final projected price vs. last traded price. I used the ZiPS RoS projections available at Fangraphs.
It's not surprising to see the players (Ubaldo and Liriano) with good track records but underperforming this season be projected to return the most value. As I write this, Ubaldo is getting shelled in Detroit so I wouldn't go buying his shares just yet. As I wrote above, I wouldn't expected any drastic returns from the MLB market.
Monday, August 15, 2011
NFL Season
With the lockout over, I guess I have to get back into football. I'll have a large post about survivor pool strategy coming up later this week, but I thought I'd throw up some basic stuff. I used Sbet's lines for each game this season.
First, here is a ranking of the teams based on average point spread. This DOES NOT represent who the best team is; rather, it is a combination of team skill and strength of schedule.
Next, projected wins for each team based on the individual game spreads vs. win totals offered at Sbet .
I used a difference of two wins to determine which were favorable bets.
First, here is a ranking of the teams based on average point spread. This DOES NOT represent who the best team is; rather, it is a combination of team skill and strength of schedule.
Next, projected wins for each team based on the individual game spreads vs. win totals offered at Sbet .
I used a difference of two wins to determine which were favorable bets.
Thursday, July 28, 2011
Updated MLB Season Wins Totals
Forgot to post yesterday.
- At this point, it's tough to bet against the Phillies, despite what the numbers say.
- Betting against the Pirates to finish .500 seems solid.
- As of 7/27, the Dodgers have the #2 pitcher and hitter in the NL by WAR. I think the over is a good play.
Tuesday, July 12, 2011
Updated MLB Season Wins Totals
I'm working on a bigger post that looks at the changes in each team's total over the course of the season. That might go up tomorrow, but more likely Thursday. Here is the traditional update post.
There's a lot of red on the board as the lines are set with the team's full season expectations in line. If you buy into the Pirates (I don't) now is your chance to get a good number on them. It's hard to imagine the Dodgers continuing to play this poorly. Based on the line, they are projected to finish last in the NL West.
There's a lot of red on the board as the lines are set with the team's full season expectations in line. If you buy into the Pirates (I don't) now is your chance to get a good number on them. It's hard to imagine the Dodgers continuing to play this poorly. Based on the line, they are projected to finish last in the NL West.
Saturday, July 9, 2011
The Futures Game
Tomorrow, the 12th 13th annual Futures GAme will be played in Phoenix. I look forward to this event each year as it allows the top prospects in the game to face off against each other, regardless of level. It's common for players in rookie ball to face off against AA aces. The game began in 1999 at Fenway Park. I was fortunate enough to attend the 2003-2005 iterations and again in 2009. I watch each year and long to attend. Here are my rankings for the top collections of talent and some thoughts on this year's game. My rankings are based on career to date and future projection. I'm not surprised the more recent games rank higher as there have been fewer "busts" because the players are still young enough to get a shot.
1. 2004- Joe Blanton, Matt Cain, Robinson Cano, Fausto Carmona, Shin Soo Choo, John Danks, Prince Fielder, Gavin Floyd, Felix Hernandez, Aaron Hill, Justin Morneau, Tim Stauffer, BJ Upton, Rickie Weeks, David Wright, Delmon Young. Cano, Prince, Felix, and Wright headline this class. Add in Weeks, Morneau, Cain, and Choo.
2. 2006- Ryan Braun, Billy Butler, Stephen Drew, Yunel Escobar, Yovani Gallardo, Jaime Garcia, Carlos Gonzalez, Gio Gonzalez, Alex Gordon, Phil Hughes, Howie Kendrick, Cameron Maybin, Hunter Pence, Pablo Sandoval, Kurt Suzuki, Jose Tabata, Troy Tulowitzki, Joey Votto. No surprise that the game immediately following the legendary 2005 draft is highly rated. 2005 draftees Tulowitzki and Braun would challenge for the ROY in 2007. This group has already produced an MVP and a Cy is possible with Gio, Gallardo, or Jaime.
3. 2003- Robinson Cano, Jorge De La Rosa, Gavin Floyd, Zack Greinke, Franklin Gutierrez, Rich Harden, JJ Hardy, Ryan Howard, Edwin Jackson, Adam LaRoche, Joe Mauer, Alex Rios, Grady Sizemore, Chien Ming Wang, Kevin Youkilis. Injuries have prevented this group from being ranked #1, but it's hard to argue with the talent at the top. Mauer and Grienke had incredible 2009 seasons and are bonafide superstars. Ryan Howard is paid like a superstar.
4. 2005- Jose Bautista, Fausto Carmona, Shin Soo Choo, Nelson Cruz, Francisco Liriano, Miguel Montero, Kendry Morales, Hanley Ramirez, Anibal Sanchez, BJ Upton, Justin Verlander, Edison Volquez, Chris Young (OF), Delmon Young. A year or two ago, this class would look completely different since Jose Bautista would be an afterthought. Now he is considered one of the best hitters in the game.
5. 2007- Elvis Andrus, Jay Bruce, Clay Buchholz, Chris Coghlan, Jacoby Ellsbury, Carlos Gonzalez, Clayton Kershaw, Evan Longoria, Carmon Maybin, Jeff Niemann, Colby Rasmus, Geovany Soto, Justin Upton, Joey Votto. The rest of the 2005 draft- Bruce, Ellsbury, Rasmus, and Upton- make appearances along with MVP winners/candidates Joey Votto, Evan Longoria, and Carlos Gonzalez.
6. 2009- Pedro Alvarez, Manny Banuelos, Madison Bumgarner, Starlin Castro, Jhoulys Chacin, Kyle Drabek, Danny Duffy, Danny Espinosa, Neftali Feliz, Jason Heyward, Desmond Jennings, Mat Latos, Brett Lawrie, Brian Matusz, Jesus Montero, Jarrod Parker, Carlos Santana, Mike Stanton. Two superstars upsides with Mike Stanton and Jason Heyward along with multiple all stars position players like Starlin Castro and Carlos Santana. This class still has some work to do but should climb in the rankings.
7. 2002- Erik Bedard, Miguel Cabrera, Shin Soo Choo, Carl Crawford, Jorge De La Rosa, Corey Hart, Orlando Hudson, Francisco Liriano, Victor Martinez, Justin Morneau, Brett Myers, Brandon Phillips, Francisco Rodriguez, Adam Wainwright. Hard to find a better 1-2 than Crawford and Cabrera.
8. 2010- Zach Britton, Domonic Brown, Lonnie Chisenhall, Danny Espinosa, Jeremy Hellickson, Eric Hosmer, Dan Hudson, Brett Jackson, Desmond Jennings, Brett Lawrie, Hak-Ju Lee, Shelby Miller, Mike Minor, Logan Morrison, Mike Moustakas, Julio Teheran, Mike Trout. This class still needs to develop but Trout, Miller, Hosmer, and Hellickson look like bonafide superstars.
9. 1999- Rick Ankiel, Lance Berkman, AJ Burnett, Pat Burrell, Francisco Cordero, Michael Cuddyer, Rafael Furcal, Mark Mulder, Armais Ramirez, Alfonso Soriano, Vernon Wells. A couple of nice players, with Berkman being the best. This group fell off the cliff FAST.
10. 2001- Erik Bedard, Hank Blalock, Miguel Cabrera, Adam Dunn, Adrian Gonzalez, Ryan Ludwick, Brett Myers, Carlos Pena, Chase Utley, Jose Valverde. Adrian Gonzalez, Miguel Cabrera, Chase Utley, and what?
11. 2000- Josh Beckett, Mark Buehrle, Josh Hamilton, Carlos Pena, CC Sabathia, Ben Sheets, Vernon Wells, Barry Zito. An MVP and two Cy Youngs with some all stars.
12. 2008- Brett Anderson, Elvis Andrus, Trevor Cahill, Andrew McCutchen, Jesus Montero, Cliff Pennington, Clayton Richard, Pablo Sandoval.The 2008 Olympics were going on at this time so many of the top prospects were playing in China.The US team in this game was the team that would represent the US in Beijing. USA Base all insisted on taking high level players like Jamie D'Antona (a former favorite prospect of mine) for "experience".
The 2011 game should be one of the best. The US team has a loaded pitching staff and Bryce Harper. I'm looking forward to seeing Shelby Miller, Matt Moore, and Jacob Turner pitch. Matt Harvey, Kyle Gibson, Drew Pomeranz, and Tyler Skaggs aren't slouches either. Outside of Harper, the offensive side of the US team is less exciting. If Mike Trout hadn't been called up, it would be more exciting, but now the top prospects are Wil Myers, Manny Machado, and Devin Mesoraco. Grant Green, Paul Goldschmidt, Nolan Arenado, Matt Szczur, and some of the others are interesting hitters, but not elite prospects.
On the World side, as a Cardinals fan, I am looking forward to seeing Carlos Martinez in action. He has catapulted into the top 25 of Baseball America's prospects and should see more love this offseason. Besides him, the two Braves studs, Julio Teheran and Arodys Vizcaino (I saw him hit 100+ in ST) and Martin Perez are arms to watch. Offensively, Willin Rosario looks like the Rockies catcher of the future, Yonder Alonso is prime tradebait for the Reds, and Hak-Ju Lee is one of the top SS prospects in the minors. Fan favorite, Jose Altuve, is on the roster, as are low minor, high upside IF prospects Jurickson Profar and Jonathan Schoop.
The US pitching is so strong that I think it will prevail. As with most games, there is usually one big hit that blows the game open and pitching dominates the rest. Therefore, I have to give the US the edge.
1. 2004- Joe Blanton, Matt Cain, Robinson Cano, Fausto Carmona, Shin Soo Choo, John Danks, Prince Fielder, Gavin Floyd, Felix Hernandez, Aaron Hill, Justin Morneau, Tim Stauffer, BJ Upton, Rickie Weeks, David Wright, Delmon Young. Cano, Prince, Felix, and Wright headline this class. Add in Weeks, Morneau, Cain, and Choo.
2. 2006- Ryan Braun, Billy Butler, Stephen Drew, Yunel Escobar, Yovani Gallardo, Jaime Garcia, Carlos Gonzalez, Gio Gonzalez, Alex Gordon, Phil Hughes, Howie Kendrick, Cameron Maybin, Hunter Pence, Pablo Sandoval, Kurt Suzuki, Jose Tabata, Troy Tulowitzki, Joey Votto. No surprise that the game immediately following the legendary 2005 draft is highly rated. 2005 draftees Tulowitzki and Braun would challenge for the ROY in 2007. This group has already produced an MVP and a Cy is possible with Gio, Gallardo, or Jaime.
3. 2003- Robinson Cano, Jorge De La Rosa, Gavin Floyd, Zack Greinke, Franklin Gutierrez, Rich Harden, JJ Hardy, Ryan Howard, Edwin Jackson, Adam LaRoche, Joe Mauer, Alex Rios, Grady Sizemore, Chien Ming Wang, Kevin Youkilis. Injuries have prevented this group from being ranked #1, but it's hard to argue with the talent at the top. Mauer and Grienke had incredible 2009 seasons and are bonafide superstars. Ryan Howard is paid like a superstar.
4. 2005- Jose Bautista, Fausto Carmona, Shin Soo Choo, Nelson Cruz, Francisco Liriano, Miguel Montero, Kendry Morales, Hanley Ramirez, Anibal Sanchez, BJ Upton, Justin Verlander, Edison Volquez, Chris Young (OF), Delmon Young. A year or two ago, this class would look completely different since Jose Bautista would be an afterthought. Now he is considered one of the best hitters in the game.
5. 2007- Elvis Andrus, Jay Bruce, Clay Buchholz, Chris Coghlan, Jacoby Ellsbury, Carlos Gonzalez, Clayton Kershaw, Evan Longoria, Carmon Maybin, Jeff Niemann, Colby Rasmus, Geovany Soto, Justin Upton, Joey Votto. The rest of the 2005 draft- Bruce, Ellsbury, Rasmus, and Upton- make appearances along with MVP winners/candidates Joey Votto, Evan Longoria, and Carlos Gonzalez.
6. 2009- Pedro Alvarez, Manny Banuelos, Madison Bumgarner, Starlin Castro, Jhoulys Chacin, Kyle Drabek, Danny Duffy, Danny Espinosa, Neftali Feliz, Jason Heyward, Desmond Jennings, Mat Latos, Brett Lawrie, Brian Matusz, Jesus Montero, Jarrod Parker, Carlos Santana, Mike Stanton. Two superstars upsides with Mike Stanton and Jason Heyward along with multiple all stars position players like Starlin Castro and Carlos Santana. This class still has some work to do but should climb in the rankings.
7. 2002- Erik Bedard, Miguel Cabrera, Shin Soo Choo, Carl Crawford, Jorge De La Rosa, Corey Hart, Orlando Hudson, Francisco Liriano, Victor Martinez, Justin Morneau, Brett Myers, Brandon Phillips, Francisco Rodriguez, Adam Wainwright. Hard to find a better 1-2 than Crawford and Cabrera.
8. 2010- Zach Britton, Domonic Brown, Lonnie Chisenhall, Danny Espinosa, Jeremy Hellickson, Eric Hosmer, Dan Hudson, Brett Jackson, Desmond Jennings, Brett Lawrie, Hak-Ju Lee, Shelby Miller, Mike Minor, Logan Morrison, Mike Moustakas, Julio Teheran, Mike Trout. This class still needs to develop but Trout, Miller, Hosmer, and Hellickson look like bonafide superstars.
9. 1999- Rick Ankiel, Lance Berkman, AJ Burnett, Pat Burrell, Francisco Cordero, Michael Cuddyer, Rafael Furcal, Mark Mulder, Armais Ramirez, Alfonso Soriano, Vernon Wells. A couple of nice players, with Berkman being the best. This group fell off the cliff FAST.
10. 2001- Erik Bedard, Hank Blalock, Miguel Cabrera, Adam Dunn, Adrian Gonzalez, Ryan Ludwick, Brett Myers, Carlos Pena, Chase Utley, Jose Valverde. Adrian Gonzalez, Miguel Cabrera, Chase Utley, and what?
11. 2000- Josh Beckett, Mark Buehrle, Josh Hamilton, Carlos Pena, CC Sabathia, Ben Sheets, Vernon Wells, Barry Zito. An MVP and two Cy Youngs with some all stars.
12. 2008- Brett Anderson, Elvis Andrus, Trevor Cahill, Andrew McCutchen, Jesus Montero, Cliff Pennington, Clayton Richard, Pablo Sandoval.
The 2011 game should be one of the best. The US team has a loaded pitching staff and Bryce Harper. I'm looking forward to seeing Shelby Miller, Matt Moore, and Jacob Turner pitch. Matt Harvey, Kyle Gibson, Drew Pomeranz, and Tyler Skaggs aren't slouches either. Outside of Harper, the offensive side of the US team is less exciting. If Mike Trout hadn't been called up, it would be more exciting, but now the top prospects are Wil Myers, Manny Machado, and Devin Mesoraco. Grant Green, Paul Goldschmidt, Nolan Arenado, Matt Szczur, and some of the others are interesting hitters, but not elite prospects.
On the World side, as a Cardinals fan, I am looking forward to seeing Carlos Martinez in action. He has catapulted into the top 25 of Baseball America's prospects and should see more love this offseason. Besides him, the two Braves studs, Julio Teheran and Arodys Vizcaino (I saw him hit 100+ in ST) and Martin Perez are arms to watch. Offensively, Willin Rosario looks like the Rockies catcher of the future, Yonder Alonso is prime tradebait for the Reds, and Hak-Ju Lee is one of the top SS prospects in the minors. Fan favorite, Jose Altuve, is on the roster, as are low minor, high upside IF prospects Jurickson Profar and Jonathan Schoop.
The US pitching is so strong that I think it will prevail. As with most games, there is usually one big hit that blows the game open and pitching dominates the rest. Therefore, I have to give the US the edge.
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