I'm sorry Bud Selig, but I can't call what it happening Friday the playoffs. When the Braves and Rangers, two of the top five teams in baseball, could miss out on having an opportunity to compete for a World Championship, that's not good for the game. It's great that the Cardinals have a shot after a lackluster regular season but the Braves are clearly a better team. That being said it's one game and anything can happen so let's break this down.
First of all, I've had a lot of conversations regarding the starting pitcher for this game. There's only one right answer and fortunately Matheny came to it. Kyle Lohse starts this game. Period. Lohse's time with the Cardinals was really A Tale of Two Cities. In 2009 and especially 2010, he was one of the worst starting pitchers in baseball. After a cutting edge medical procedure, Lohse rebounded to his 2008 form and threw just under 400 innings of sub 3.20 ERA baseball since. 2012 was Lohse's best season yet as he was remarkably consistent only surrendering more than three runs in six of his lead leading 33 starts. It's a shame the business interests of the Cardinals and Lohse won't align this offseason because not only is he a great pitcher but he's a great member of the community and a real stand up guy. Kyle Lohse will be missed in St. Louis.
Those knocking Lohse point to his extremely lackluster postseason record. He is 0-4 in four postseason starts. As mentioned above, Lohse is a new pitcher this year and I expect his success to continue. There aren't any other reasonable options. Yes, Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright are postseason legends in Cardinals history, but they cannot be expected to start this game. Carpenter has made three starts since October 28, 2011. He has been better than expected but if his name weren't Chris Carpenter, no fan would want him on the bump in Atlanta. Carp is a great competitor, but the stuff isn't there yet. He will contribute to this team's playoff run, but not in Atlanta. Wainwright's performance this year has been a mixed bag. He has shown signs of his brilliance but at other times looked like the guy pitching for the first time after Tommy John surgery. There's no question he's in the playoff rotation but to roll the dice with him in a single elimination game is too risky.
Now with that explained, let's examine the match ups.
Catcher: Coming into 2012, everyone knew that Yadier Molina was the best defensive catcher in baseball, but to suggest he would be a MUCH better hitter than Brian McCann would raise eyebrows. How bad a 2012 has McCann had? His backup, David Ross, has an OPS 72 points higher. McCann put up a .230/.300/.399 line. McCann had a single month with an OPS higher than .798. On the other side, Yadier Molina did enough to garner significant NL MVP consideration as he set career highs in virtually every category (including 12 SBs!). His defense was phenomenal as usual. The Braves really don't run that much (101 SBs, 80 of which belong to Bourn (41), Heyward (21), and Prado (17)). If they run, Yadi will shut them down. Advantage: Cardinals
First Base: When looking through the numbers, I was surprised how middle of the road Freddie Freeman is. His wRC+is in the bottom half of qualified first basemen. He is only 22 and he avoided a sophmore slump by posting an extremely similar line to 2011 so he could still develop into the monster that is Allen Craig. When healthy in 2011 and 2012, Craig has hit .309/.357/.532. Over that period, the only 1Bs with 600+ PAs and a higher slugging percentage are Miguel Cabrera, Nike Napoli, Joey Votto, Prince Fielder, and Lance Berkman. Craig's problem is staying the field. He barely qualified for the leaderboards this year. Defensively he gets the job done. He can still play OF if needed. I don't think we will ever see him at 2B again. It would be nice to have a stick like that at 2B (I am not serious about this) but keeping him healthy is the utmost priority and the way to do that is playing him at 1B. Advantage: Cardinals
Second Base: Second base is a black hole position for the Cardinals. Ever since Mark Grudzielanek left following the 2006 season it has been filled by a cast of characters including Hector Luna, Adam Kennedy, Aaron Miles, Felipe Lopez, etc. Daniel Descalso hasn't done anything to own the position. He hits lefthanded, has a strong arm, and good range. The range is what separates him from Skip Schumaker and why he has gotten a majority of the playing time down the stretch. Descalso had some tough BABIP luck this year but the strikeouts are getting awfully high. Even the current incarnation of Dan Uggla is better than Descalso. Uggla isn't a good defender (best UZR since 2006, first positive since 2008) but he tied for third on the Braves in OBP and fifth among qualified 2B. For as much bad press as he gets, Uggla is still an extremely valuable second baseman. Advantage: Braves
Third Base: Both third baseman deserve more than I'm going to write about. Chipper Jones is a legend and David Freese is an October hero. Their OPSs were within 7 points of each other this year as remarkably both were healthy for nearly the entire season. At this point Freese offers more defensively. The only thing Chipper does better than David is walk. A player with Chipper's skillset is perfect for the two hole but no manager has the guts to bat him anywhere than the heart of the order. A very close matchup but I'm siding with David. Advantage: Cardinals
Shortstop: The Braves entered Spring Training with no clear shortstop. Most thought that Tyler Pastornicky would get the job and while that ended up happening, Andrelton Simmons almost made the team with no at bats above the Carolina League. Eventually, the Braves realized what a special player Simmons was and he ended the year as the starting shortstop. No one questioned his defensive value- Jose Iglesias is probably the only better fielding shortstop-but few expected his bat would play as well as it did. Simmons walked as much as he struck out, stole bases at ease, and had some pop. The NL Shortstop scene is crowded with Troy Tulowitzki, Jose Reyes, and Starlin Castro, but Simmons may be the best all around player of any of them. Pete Kozma deserves some mention but he is nowhere close to matching Simmons. Kozma has proved to have some worth as most had written the former first round pick off. He solidified the shortstop position following Rafael Furcal's season ending injury despite spending most of the season as the Memphis Redbirds' second baseman. All the Cardinals need from him is to continue playing mistake free baseball. He has also gotten some clutch hits this September. Advantage: Braves
Left Field: The first of three compelling OF matchups pits Matt Holliday and Martin Prado. Fortunately the Cards have the LFer who will garner MVP support while the Braves have one of the most versatile players in the game. Prado has actually appeared at every IF position this year and was third in the NL in hits. He is a great defender. Holliday, however, is the heart of the Cardinals order. The seven year contract he signed prior to the 2010 season is looking like one of the best long term free agent signings in recent history although his OPS has fallen every year. He still is extremely productive. Luckily the Cards weren't required to play a game in LA. Advantage: Cardinals
Center Field: The second neck and neck competition. Coming into 2011, no Cardinals fan would believe Jon Jay would be the center fielder and leadoff hitter on a Championship team. Colby Rasmus oozed potential and was looking to take the steps to stardom everyone had foretold. The previously overlooked Jay has been a .300 hitter in his major league career and played spectacular CF defense. He hurt himself earlier this year running into the wall after tracking a ball down. He is remarkably consistent posting an OPS between .768 and .780 in each year of his career. He spearheaded "High Sock Sundays". He has swag. The Cardinals are going to take a long look at extending Jay this offseason and I hope they do. Bourn also plays outstanding defense. Bourn also runs a lot. It's clear, however, that his first half of 2011 in Houston is not to be expected going forward. That was the only stretch of Bourn's career he posted an OPS+ above 100 (league average). He may also be slowing down as this was his worst baserunning year since 2008. These are not good facts for a soon to be free agent, but I'm sure Scott Boras has a binder prepared to paint a more favorable picture. I just hope that the Washington Nationals don't buy into Boras's schtick because Bourn has all the makings of a bust free agent. While this is close, I think the edge goes to Jon Jay and the Cardinals, but that may be due to my bias. Advantage: Tie
Right Field: Wow, this one would have been a whole different story on May 30th. On that date Beltran was at .294/.394/.594; Heyward, .233/.327/.413. Since then Heyward is .284/.339/.506 and Carlos is .257/.324/.451. Beltran showed some signs of life at the end of the season so there's hope. It's clear he played through a number of injuries that particularly sapped his power. His arm is still an asset on defense, but that's about it. His range is minimal. Heyward led MLB in UZR and all RFs in WAR. This one really isn't close. Advantage: Braves
Starting Pitcher: The Braves haven't lost in Kris Medlen's last 23 starts over a two year period (he had TJS). Medlen is good. He is not Greg Maddux good though. If Medlen qualified, his 0.4 HR/9 would be the lowest in baseball. He performed light years better by any measure as a starter than a reliever. Kris Medlen is not Stephen Strasburg. He is not a strikeout pitcher. Good teams, like the Cardinals, will hit him. Here is who Medlen has faced as a starter this year: Marlins, Astros, Mets, Padres, Nats, and Rockies. The Astros, Marlins, and Mets were among the worst offensive teams in baseball and the Rockies weren't far ahead. As covered above Lohse has been the picture of consistency this year. I expect strong starts from both pitchers. I'd call this a tie, but that's probably my Cardinals bias. Advantage: Braves
Bullpen: This is where the game is decided. The Cardinals bullpen relies heavily on Edward Mujica, Mitchell Boggs, and Jason Motte. There was a stretch in which those three pitched in order the 7th-9th almost everyday. The wear eventually caught up and all had poor outings. A couple of nights off should do them wonders. Motte closed out game 162 to tie Kimbrel for the league lead in saves but he should be fine. Joe Kelly and Trevor Rosenthal provide heat and the ability to work multiple innings if needed, however it appears that Lance Lynn would be the long man if Lohse falters early. I support that. Fernando Salas hasn't pitched well all year. He should not be used in high leverage situations. Marc Rzepcynski probably won't make the roster. That means the only lefthanded pitcher other than Jaime Garcia is Sam Freeman. This is critical. The Braves are a lefthanded heavy team. As a team their OPS is .721 against righties and .689 against lefties. Sam Freeman was a 32nd round draft pick out of Kansas. He made his major league debut in June and has since pitched 20 innings with a 5.40 ERA. He also has a reverse platoon split with righties hitting .189 and lefties hitting .290. He's a lefty who (small sample warning- please!) doesn't get lefties out. If the game comes down to one of the Braves lefthanded hitters up in a clutch situation, the Cardinals will lose. The Braves bullpen is the stuff of wonders. The only flaw with it is how Fredi Gonzalez utilizes it. It was first or second in bullpen ERA, FIP, and xFIP. Craig Kimbrel strikes out more than half the hitters he faces. Eric O'Flaherty and Jonny Venters are the rare lefthanded pitcher who can consistently get righthanded hitters out. The bullpen as a whole gets groundballs at a 51% clip. I'm not sure who the Braves will go with as the long guy if Medlen has a short outing. Tim Hudson would make sense or they could get multiple innings from each reliever. The Cardinals cannot afford to be down multiple runs when the Braves go to the bullpen. Advantage: Braves
Bench: A deep, versatile bench is critical in for this game. Every player rostered needs to excel at one aspect of the game and serve a purpose. While rosters haven't been announced I anticipate the Cardinals rostering Tony Cruz, Matt Carpenter, Adron Chambers, Skip Schumaker, Shane Robinson, and Ryan Jackson. Robinson doesn't really add much besides replacing the statue that is Carlos Beltran in RF if Chambers is burned as a PR (which is how he should be utilized). Jackson will be included because there is no one else to play SS if Kozma goes down. This group combined for 11 home runs this year so there is absolutely no power threat. They make up for that in versatility. Carpenter can play at least two infield positions and the outfield. Schumaker's positional flexibility and contact hitting are well known. The SB Nation Braves blog speculates the Braves will carry David Ross, Juan Francisco, Reed Johnson, Eric Hinske, Jose Constanza, and Tyler Pastornicky. It's not a great bench but better than the Cardinals. Ross is the best backup catcher in the majors. Pastornicky and Francisco are the Braves answer to the Cards' Jackson and Robinson. Hinske has fallen off a cliff this year but is still dangerous. Johnson is a professional hitter and Jose Constanza is the bad habit Fredi Gonzalez cannot quit. The good news is the Cards have the best contact hitters (Matt Carp/Skip) and fastest baserunner. Both of those factors could play in late situations. Nothing is worse than the PH strikeout which is something Juan Francisco excels at (70 Ks, 205 PAs). Advantage: Tie
Managers: Quick programming note. This next section is going to be harsh. I am 100% aware that I cannot and will never manage a major league team. I do not have the interpersonal skills capable of doing that. Both of these managers excel at that. Mike Matheny in particular is an extraordinary leader. If you haven't read his letter to the parents of his youth baseball team, go do that now. I wish I could be the leader of men that Mike Matheny is. I'm sure Fredi Gonzalez has similar qualities. That being said this may be the worst pair of managers to ever manage a playoff game. Bullpen usage, sac bunts, lineup decisions, etc. Both of these managers do things that make everyone scratch their heads. It goes without saying that the manager is of utmost importance in a one game playoff. I wish TLR would come back for this one game. Buck Showalter is going to make a clown out of Ron Washington in the AL Game. A one game playoff requires a manager to be innovative and deploy solid strategies; A case could be made that the pitcher should never hit for himself. One of these managers is going to lose the game based on a decision he makes. I'm not sure what that decision will be and which will make it but I'm confident that it will happen. One reason I'm not too down on the Cards chances is because Fredi Gonzalez is one guy I'm 100% sure is a worse in game manager than Mike Matheny. I look forward to the Cards scoring in the 8th inning with the heart of their order because Fredi only pitches Craig Kimbrel in save situations. Advantage: Tie
Summary: The Braves are a very, very good team. Their bullpen and defense are elite, if not the best in baseball. If Dan Uggla and Brian McCann had hit anywhere near their career averages, this would unquestionably be the team to beat in the National League. As it stands they are a formidable contender. I was surprised how poor of an offensive team they are though. As I write this the line on this game is Braves -161/+151. This is way too steep. The Cardinals, when they have their act together, are the best team in the National League. They have the starting pitching, the bullpen, and they most certainly have the lineup to win a World Championship. Regardless of who wins this game I am confident they will beat the Nationals in the Division Series. These are two very good baseball teams. In the end, I have to go with my heart. The pick is the Cardinals in a 5-3 ballgame. Look for Allen "Wrench" Craig to do big things and the Mujica, Boggs, Motte operation to shut things down in the late innings. Pray one of the Braves lefthanded bats doesn't come up in a clutch and late situation.
Thursday, October 4, 2012
Sunday, October 23, 2011
About Last Night
As you are undoubtedly aware, the Cardinals are playing for their 11th World Championship (#win11for11in11) beginning Wednesday night. Between now and then, I'll have a number of posts covering the series from all angles. This post discusses Game Three.
When Albert Pujols stepped into the batters box against Alexi Ogando in the sixth inning the score was 8-6 in favor of Pujols' Cardinals. At that point, both teams had batted around and were on their third pitchers. It was an ugly, trying game and it felt like the Rangers were inching closer and closer to topping the Cardinals. With the crowd about 95% Rangers fans, if the Rangers ever got the lead, they weren't giving it back. That ballpark rocks the way Old Busch did: It's loud. Albert was holding the master remote though. Much like he did in the 2005 NLCS, after his at bat against Ogando, the volume was one notch above mute.
I was standing behind the Rangers family and wives, underneath an overhang. When Albert struck the ball, it was clearly a home run, the question was how far would it go. We never saw the ball come down; all we saw was the scramble for it by the Sonic billboard in leftfield. It was incredible, but that wasn't the end of this historical night. The Cardinals went on to bat around in the sixth so Albert was up again in the seventh. Lefthander Mike Gonzalez was in for the Rangers. His father was sitting directly ahead of me and when Gonzalez walked Allen Craig ahead of Albert, Mr. Gonzalez nervously got up and looked disturbed. He must have felt something because Albert deposited Gonzalez's pitch into the left centerfield bleachers. At this point, I turned to my friend and the other Cardinal fans around us and went crazy. Albert was 4-5 with 2 HR, 5 RBI. This was the greatest postseason performance by the greatest player I will ever see.
As the Cards expanded their lead, we all figured TLR would give Yadi a break by moving him to first base for the final inning or so and letting Gerald Laird catch and get an AB. That was apparently Albert's plan too: He wanted to give Laird the AB, but the other Hall of Famer in the dugout sensed that Albert had a shot to rewrite the record books and told Albert to take the AB. Darren Oliver was pitching for the Rangers. Since 2007, Oliver has given up 0.6 HR/9. This year it was even lower at 0.5 and he hadn't allowed a home run since May 2nd. Albert mashes lefties so we figured he had a pretty good shot at getting a fifth hit which is nothing to sneeze at.
At some point before his AB, I asked my friend who else besides Reggie Jackson had hit three HRs in a World Series game. Neither of us knew, but we figured there was so little chance of it happening that we didn't bother to look it up. Every time you watch a baseball game, you are reminded that it truly is a game of inches. In Game One of this series, the Cardinals won because Allen Craig got a hit that just eluded Nelson Cruz's sliding attempt. The ball actually deflected off Cruz's shoe to keep it in front of him. Both teams got a break there. In Game Two, Ian Kinsler's 9th inning single dropped in the smallest of spaces between Rafael Furcal and Matt Holliday, then he stole despite an absolutely perfect throw by Yadier Molina because he was able to have an even more perfect slide. Last night, Albert hit a foul pop up just out of Mike Napoli's reach. I told my friend, "if it weren't for Napoli's catcher's alligator arms, that's an out." Albert had life and when Albert has a shot, do not bet against him. Ever.
The official attendance for the game was 51,462, but there are not 51,642 people in this world who can honestly say they saw Albert Pujols hit three home runs in the World Series. Many fans cleared out, but those regardless of affiliation those remaining fans realized the magnitude of what they just saw. Rangers and Cardinals fans alike were applauding and bowing in worship to King Albert. I was hoping that due to the extent of the respect he'd receive that he'd come out and give a curtain call, but it didn't happen.
I was shaking for the remainder of the game in awe of what I had seen. Leaving the stadium, we high-fived every Cardinals fan we saw. Rangers fans were not bitter and said they were glad to witness history. It was remarkable. Over a post game dinner, I talked about what the best game I've ever seen was because last night was so special. After some thinking, I slotted it at number two behind Game Seven of the 2004 NLCS. On an individual performance level, however, there is #1 and then a very, very wide gap. I noted in my recap of the season how Albert was relatively quiet at games I went to this year. Not anymore.
When Albert Pujols stepped into the batters box against Alexi Ogando in the sixth inning the score was 8-6 in favor of Pujols' Cardinals. At that point, both teams had batted around and were on their third pitchers. It was an ugly, trying game and it felt like the Rangers were inching closer and closer to topping the Cardinals. With the crowd about 95% Rangers fans, if the Rangers ever got the lead, they weren't giving it back. That ballpark rocks the way Old Busch did: It's loud. Albert was holding the master remote though. Much like he did in the 2005 NLCS, after his at bat against Ogando, the volume was one notch above mute.
I was standing behind the Rangers family and wives, underneath an overhang. When Albert struck the ball, it was clearly a home run, the question was how far would it go. We never saw the ball come down; all we saw was the scramble for it by the Sonic billboard in leftfield. It was incredible, but that wasn't the end of this historical night. The Cardinals went on to bat around in the sixth so Albert was up again in the seventh. Lefthander Mike Gonzalez was in for the Rangers. His father was sitting directly ahead of me and when Gonzalez walked Allen Craig ahead of Albert, Mr. Gonzalez nervously got up and looked disturbed. He must have felt something because Albert deposited Gonzalez's pitch into the left centerfield bleachers. At this point, I turned to my friend and the other Cardinal fans around us and went crazy. Albert was 4-5 with 2 HR, 5 RBI. This was the greatest postseason performance by the greatest player I will ever see.
As the Cards expanded their lead, we all figured TLR would give Yadi a break by moving him to first base for the final inning or so and letting Gerald Laird catch and get an AB. That was apparently Albert's plan too: He wanted to give Laird the AB, but the other Hall of Famer in the dugout sensed that Albert had a shot to rewrite the record books and told Albert to take the AB. Darren Oliver was pitching for the Rangers. Since 2007, Oliver has given up 0.6 HR/9. This year it was even lower at 0.5 and he hadn't allowed a home run since May 2nd. Albert mashes lefties so we figured he had a pretty good shot at getting a fifth hit which is nothing to sneeze at.
At some point before his AB, I asked my friend who else besides Reggie Jackson had hit three HRs in a World Series game. Neither of us knew, but we figured there was so little chance of it happening that we didn't bother to look it up. Every time you watch a baseball game, you are reminded that it truly is a game of inches. In Game One of this series, the Cardinals won because Allen Craig got a hit that just eluded Nelson Cruz's sliding attempt. The ball actually deflected off Cruz's shoe to keep it in front of him. Both teams got a break there. In Game Two, Ian Kinsler's 9th inning single dropped in the smallest of spaces between Rafael Furcal and Matt Holliday, then he stole despite an absolutely perfect throw by Yadier Molina because he was able to have an even more perfect slide. Last night, Albert hit a foul pop up just out of Mike Napoli's reach. I told my friend, "if it weren't for Napoli's catcher's alligator arms, that's an out." Albert had life and when Albert has a shot, do not bet against him. Ever.
The official attendance for the game was 51,462, but there are not 51,642 people in this world who can honestly say they saw Albert Pujols hit three home runs in the World Series. Many fans cleared out, but those regardless of affiliation those remaining fans realized the magnitude of what they just saw. Rangers and Cardinals fans alike were applauding and bowing in worship to King Albert. I was hoping that due to the extent of the respect he'd receive that he'd come out and give a curtain call, but it didn't happen.
I was shaking for the remainder of the game in awe of what I had seen. Leaving the stadium, we high-fived every Cardinals fan we saw. Rangers fans were not bitter and said they were glad to witness history. It was remarkable. Over a post game dinner, I talked about what the best game I've ever seen was because last night was so special. After some thinking, I slotted it at number two behind Game Seven of the 2004 NLCS. On an individual performance level, however, there is #1 and then a very, very wide gap. I noted in my recap of the season how Albert was relatively quiet at games I went to this year. Not anymore.
Wednesday, October 19, 2011
World Series: The Matchup
As you are undoubtedly aware, the Cardinals are playing for their 11th World Championship (#win11for11in11) beginning Wednesday night. Between now and then, I'll have a number of posts covering the series from all angles. This post breaks down both teams and concludes with my pick.
Back when I ran the Log5 for the playoffs, this matchup was projected to occur 3.4% of the time which barely edged out the Cardinals-Rays matchup for the least likely World Series pairing. As of the night before the series, the Rangers are the consensus favorite in the series. Here's a look at the key aspects of each team:
Rangers Rotation: CJ Wilson, Colby Lewis, Derek Holland, Matt Harrison
Free agent to be CJ Wilson leads the Rangers pitching staff. Ironically, it is his fault (and Prince Fielder's boost) that gave the Cardinals home field advantage in this series. This season was only Wilson's second as a full time starter and he improved dramatically upon last year's transition. He does walk a fair number of hitters.
Somewhat similarly, Colby Lewis spent the season pitching in Japan two years ago and this marked his second year back in the states. Unfortunately for him, it didn't go as well as 2010. Lewis led the league in home runs allowed and saw his other ratio stats move in the wrong direction. Lewis, like Jaime Garcia, had a dramatic home/road split, but Lewis is a much stronger pitcher on the road.
Derek Holland is possibly more volatile than Jaime Garcia. He led the league by throwing four shutouts but still finished with an ERA around 4. He is only 24 years old. He represents a wild card for the Rangers.
Rounding out the Rangers rotation is one of the pieces acquired in the Mark Teixeira trade, Matt Harrison. Harrison set a new career high for innings pitched this year and started one fewer game this season than he had in the prior three seasons combined. Harrison may be the Rangers' second best pitcher behind Wilson.
Cardinals Rotation: Chris Carpenter, Jaime Garcia, Kyle Lohse, Edwin Jackson
Edge: Very, very close- Rangers.
Rangers Bullpen:
Neftali Feliz, Alexi Ogando, Mike Adams, and Koji Uehara are all really, really good. Feliz struggled for most of the year and walked way too many batters, but still finished with an 2.74 ERA. Ogando was a starter for most of the year, but transitioned to the pen for the stretch run and to limit his innings. So far in the postseason he has worked 7.2 innings and struck out ten. Adams and Uehara were both acquired at the trade deadline and found themselves right at home. Adams showed why most baseball people preferred to trade for him rather than teammate Heath Bell. He also proved that he was not a product of Petco Park, but was, in fact, nasty. Uehara got unlucky with his home runs but had a 23 K/BB ratio (1 BB!) as a member of the Rangers.
Cardinals Bullpen:
As referenced above, the Cardinals bullpen was worked hard in the Milwaukee series. Remarkably, they held most of the leads. The bullpen has been the team's biggest weakness over the past two seasons which made the performance in the NLCS even more astounding. Starting from the back, Jason Motte serves as the team's closer. He throws heat and that's it. Since he broke in with the big league team in 2009, the only person who has given Motte trouble is himself. I have full confidence in his ability to shut down any part of any order.
Setting up in front of Motte from the right side are Fernando Salas, Octavio Dotel, and Mitchell Boggs. Salas is a very useful pitcher with command of a four average pitches. He is prone to the longball which cost him the closer's job down the stretch. Dotel was acquired in the Rasmus trade and pitched well enough down the stretch. The biggest reason for that was the second lowest walk rate of his career. Like Salas, Boggs also had a shot at closer, but lost it. He doesn't throw as hard as Motte, but he brings heat and can mix in some offspeed stuff as well. Boggs should be the last righthander used in the pen.
On the left side of the bullpen are two pitchers who both joined the team after July 27th- Marc Rzepczynski (search B-Ref for Marc R to spell it!) and Arthur Rhodes. Rhodes is in the same position as Bengie Molina was last year in that he'll get a ring no matter what since he was released by the Rangers in August. Rhodes is the specialist of the two and won't pitch to more than one or two hitters and they must be lefthanded. He made some big pitches in the earlier rounds of the playoffs. Rzepczynski is hailed as the only ray of hope to come from the Rasmus trade. He is a young pitcher with potential. He has been rock solid in the playoffs showing ability to retire both lefthanded and righthanded hitters.
Edge: The Cardinals bullpen isn't as good as the last round made them out to be. Motte is the only Cardinal to rank with the Rangers crop of relievers. Rangers.
Rangers Hitters:
The Rangers have a very strong offensive team and receive contributions from almost every position on the diamond. Starting behind the plate, Mike Napoli mashes to the tune of a 1.046 OPS. The other big power threats are Adrian Beltre, Josh Hamilton, and Nelson Cruz. All had slugging percentages over .500. Cruz and Beltre have already exploded in the playoffs, but Hamilton has been quiet. If he gets his bat going too, it will be a long series for the Cardinals pitchers. Elvis Andrus doesn't hit for much power but he gets on base well and is a major base stealing threat. It will be great to see him attempt to steal on Yadier Molina. The strangest story in the Rangers season was the Michael Young ordeal. At the beginning of Spring Training, it looked like the team would trade him and there were stories coming out regarding Young's displeasure with the whole situation. He ultimately was not traded and the Rangers got a very productive season. Although he only hit 11 home runs, his 41 doubles allowed him to lead the team in RBI. Young will probably play first base in Game 2 and possibly in Game 1 but will serve as DH for the games in Texas. The normal first baseman is Mitch Moreland who wasn't able to build off his success in last year's playoffs. Rounding out the starting lineup is Ian Kinsler, a University of Missouri product, who is coming off one of the quietest 30/30 seasons in history. The Rangers bench is composed of David Murphy, Yorvit Torrealba, Craig Gentry, and Endy Chavez. Murphy has enjoyed success in the past, but never got it going this year. Torrealba is a great defense catcher and could be inserted for Napoli in late game situations.
Cardinals Hitters:
Led by the trio of Albert Pujols, Matt Holliday, and Lance Berkman, the Cardinals offense has hit its stride over the past three weeks. Albert has been killing everying. Berkman continues to get on base at a high clip and get big hits. Holliday suffered through a very strange season and never seemed to get everything on the same page. The big story of the playoffs so far has been third baseman David Freese. I doubted his ability coming into the season, but when he is healthy, he's quite a player. Jon Jay has also shown himself to be the real deal. Watching him execute perfect hit and runs, bunt, and make outstanding catches in the outfield reminds me of all the things Colby would never have been able to do. Yadier Molina had the best offensive season of his career and continues to be the best defensive catcher in baseball. The only holes in the Cardinals lineup are up the middle. Rafael Furcal has helped out since coming over from the Dodgers on July 31st, but that's primarily because his defense is such an upgrade over Ryan Theriot's. Second base has been a mix match of Skip Schumaker, Ryan Theriot, and Nick Punto. All provide nearly the same offensive value and Theriot and Punto are much better defensively than Schumaker, a former outfielder. The bench features a major weapon in Allen Craig who will serve as the DH in Texas. Craig will be the best DH from an NL World Series team in recent memory. This is certainly true for the Cardinals playoff teams during the Pujols era. In 2004 and 2006, Chris Duncan, Marlon Anderson, Scott Speizio, and Reggie Sanders served as DH in the AL parks. Craig is a much better hitter than all four. Gerald Laird is only on the bench as Molina insurance and probably won't see a single pitch. Rookie Adron Chambers has great speed, but could find himself left off the roster.
Edge: Rangers, barely.
Overall Thoughts:
I gave the Rangers the edge in every category, but I think the Cards have a great shot in this series. Both the offense and starting rotation could have a slight edge over Texas. The only place I see a clear advantage is the bullpen, but if the Cards bullpen continues its run of success, that would be mitigated. I think the Cards have a great shot at arriving in Texas with a 2-0 lead. They are favored in Game 1 and I suspect they will also be in Game 2. From there they need to win one in Texas, then one more in St. Louis. It should be a great series. It's hard for me to pick my team because I feel like I'll only be setting myself up for disappointment but I see the Cards winning this series in six games. I have the Cards +140 and the number has come down a bit, but I still think there is some value.
Back when I ran the Log5 for the playoffs, this matchup was projected to occur 3.4% of the time which barely edged out the Cardinals-Rays matchup for the least likely World Series pairing. As of the night before the series, the Rangers are the consensus favorite in the series. Here's a look at the key aspects of each team:
Rangers Rotation: CJ Wilson, Colby Lewis, Derek Holland, Matt Harrison
Free agent to be CJ Wilson leads the Rangers pitching staff. Ironically, it is his fault (and Prince Fielder's boost) that gave the Cardinals home field advantage in this series. This season was only Wilson's second as a full time starter and he improved dramatically upon last year's transition. He does walk a fair number of hitters.
Somewhat similarly, Colby Lewis spent the season pitching in Japan two years ago and this marked his second year back in the states. Unfortunately for him, it didn't go as well as 2010. Lewis led the league in home runs allowed and saw his other ratio stats move in the wrong direction. Lewis, like Jaime Garcia, had a dramatic home/road split, but Lewis is a much stronger pitcher on the road.
Derek Holland is possibly more volatile than Jaime Garcia. He led the league by throwing four shutouts but still finished with an ERA around 4. He is only 24 years old. He represents a wild card for the Rangers.
Rounding out the Rangers rotation is one of the pieces acquired in the Mark Teixeira trade, Matt Harrison. Harrison set a new career high for innings pitched this year and started one fewer game this season than he had in the prior three seasons combined. Harrison may be the Rangers' second best pitcher behind Wilson.
Cardinals Rotation: Chris Carpenter, Jaime Garcia, Kyle Lohse, Edwin Jackson
Remarkably, the Cardinals were able to get past the Brewers despite needing the bullpen to throw at least four innings in each game. At their best, the Cardinals rotation is one of the team's strengths. Carpenter overcame a slow start to have a great season and is the unquestionable staff ace. He turned in dynamite performances in the final game of the season and NLDS Game 5. He did not look as good in the NLCS and there was some concern that his elbow would prevent him from making a potential NLCS Game 7 start. Fortunately, Game 7 wasn't required and Carpenter appears healthy now.
The Cardinals need to treat Jaime Garcia with kid gloves. He is a markedly different pitcher in Busch Stadium than anywhere else. It's no surprise he will start Game 2. Given his track record at Busch, a strong start can be expected.
Kyle Lohse had the mirror opposite season as Carpenter: He started off hot but faded towards the end of the season. When Lohse is on the mound, you don't worry about if the other team will score, but how many they'll get. If he can use his pitch to contact approach to limit the Rangers to three or four runs over six innings, that would be a fine contribution.
When the Cardinals traded for Jackson and friends, many, including me, were upset. While I did not dispute that the trade made the team better at the moment, I was worried about 1) the long term consequences of the deal and 2) the trade not improving the team enough to make the playoffs. Objection #2 was clearly disproven and considering Colby Rasmus' play in Toronto, objection #1 is on the path to invalidation as well. As for Jackson's value to the Cardinals in this series- he is the true wildcard. The knock on Jackson is his lack of command. The stuff is there. He oozes potential. Remember this is the pitcher who threw 149 pitches in a no-hitter that included EIGHT walks. Jackson was so poor in his last outing that TLR pulled him after two innings. A friend remarked to me that he was glad the team has no chance of resigning Jackson because it's painful to watch him pitch. Maybe there's a Jeff Weaver start in him to boost his market value before that happens.
Edge: Very, very close- Rangers.
Rangers Bullpen:
Neftali Feliz, Alexi Ogando, Mike Adams, and Koji Uehara are all really, really good. Feliz struggled for most of the year and walked way too many batters, but still finished with an 2.74 ERA. Ogando was a starter for most of the year, but transitioned to the pen for the stretch run and to limit his innings. So far in the postseason he has worked 7.2 innings and struck out ten. Adams and Uehara were both acquired at the trade deadline and found themselves right at home. Adams showed why most baseball people preferred to trade for him rather than teammate Heath Bell. He also proved that he was not a product of Petco Park, but was, in fact, nasty. Uehara got unlucky with his home runs but had a 23 K/BB ratio (1 BB!) as a member of the Rangers.
Cardinals Bullpen:
As referenced above, the Cardinals bullpen was worked hard in the Milwaukee series. Remarkably, they held most of the leads. The bullpen has been the team's biggest weakness over the past two seasons which made the performance in the NLCS even more astounding. Starting from the back, Jason Motte serves as the team's closer. He throws heat and that's it. Since he broke in with the big league team in 2009, the only person who has given Motte trouble is himself. I have full confidence in his ability to shut down any part of any order.
Setting up in front of Motte from the right side are Fernando Salas, Octavio Dotel, and Mitchell Boggs. Salas is a very useful pitcher with command of a four average pitches. He is prone to the longball which cost him the closer's job down the stretch. Dotel was acquired in the Rasmus trade and pitched well enough down the stretch. The biggest reason for that was the second lowest walk rate of his career. Like Salas, Boggs also had a shot at closer, but lost it. He doesn't throw as hard as Motte, but he brings heat and can mix in some offspeed stuff as well. Boggs should be the last righthander used in the pen.
On the left side of the bullpen are two pitchers who both joined the team after July 27th- Marc Rzepczynski (search B-Ref for Marc R to spell it!) and Arthur Rhodes. Rhodes is in the same position as Bengie Molina was last year in that he'll get a ring no matter what since he was released by the Rangers in August. Rhodes is the specialist of the two and won't pitch to more than one or two hitters and they must be lefthanded. He made some big pitches in the earlier rounds of the playoffs. Rzepczynski is hailed as the only ray of hope to come from the Rasmus trade. He is a young pitcher with potential. He has been rock solid in the playoffs showing ability to retire both lefthanded and righthanded hitters.
Edge: The Cardinals bullpen isn't as good as the last round made them out to be. Motte is the only Cardinal to rank with the Rangers crop of relievers. Rangers.
Rangers Hitters:
The Rangers have a very strong offensive team and receive contributions from almost every position on the diamond. Starting behind the plate, Mike Napoli mashes to the tune of a 1.046 OPS. The other big power threats are Adrian Beltre, Josh Hamilton, and Nelson Cruz. All had slugging percentages over .500. Cruz and Beltre have already exploded in the playoffs, but Hamilton has been quiet. If he gets his bat going too, it will be a long series for the Cardinals pitchers. Elvis Andrus doesn't hit for much power but he gets on base well and is a major base stealing threat. It will be great to see him attempt to steal on Yadier Molina. The strangest story in the Rangers season was the Michael Young ordeal. At the beginning of Spring Training, it looked like the team would trade him and there were stories coming out regarding Young's displeasure with the whole situation. He ultimately was not traded and the Rangers got a very productive season. Although he only hit 11 home runs, his 41 doubles allowed him to lead the team in RBI. Young will probably play first base in Game 2 and possibly in Game 1 but will serve as DH for the games in Texas. The normal first baseman is Mitch Moreland who wasn't able to build off his success in last year's playoffs. Rounding out the starting lineup is Ian Kinsler, a University of Missouri product, who is coming off one of the quietest 30/30 seasons in history. The Rangers bench is composed of David Murphy, Yorvit Torrealba, Craig Gentry, and Endy Chavez. Murphy has enjoyed success in the past, but never got it going this year. Torrealba is a great defense catcher and could be inserted for Napoli in late game situations.
Cardinals Hitters:
Led by the trio of Albert Pujols, Matt Holliday, and Lance Berkman, the Cardinals offense has hit its stride over the past three weeks. Albert has been killing everying. Berkman continues to get on base at a high clip and get big hits. Holliday suffered through a very strange season and never seemed to get everything on the same page. The big story of the playoffs so far has been third baseman David Freese. I doubted his ability coming into the season, but when he is healthy, he's quite a player. Jon Jay has also shown himself to be the real deal. Watching him execute perfect hit and runs, bunt, and make outstanding catches in the outfield reminds me of all the things Colby would never have been able to do. Yadier Molina had the best offensive season of his career and continues to be the best defensive catcher in baseball. The only holes in the Cardinals lineup are up the middle. Rafael Furcal has helped out since coming over from the Dodgers on July 31st, but that's primarily because his defense is such an upgrade over Ryan Theriot's. Second base has been a mix match of Skip Schumaker, Ryan Theriot, and Nick Punto. All provide nearly the same offensive value and Theriot and Punto are much better defensively than Schumaker, a former outfielder. The bench features a major weapon in Allen Craig who will serve as the DH in Texas. Craig will be the best DH from an NL World Series team in recent memory. This is certainly true for the Cardinals playoff teams during the Pujols era. In 2004 and 2006, Chris Duncan, Marlon Anderson, Scott Speizio, and Reggie Sanders served as DH in the AL parks. Craig is a much better hitter than all four. Gerald Laird is only on the bench as Molina insurance and probably won't see a single pitch. Rookie Adron Chambers has great speed, but could find himself left off the roster.
Edge: Rangers, barely.
Overall Thoughts:
I gave the Rangers the edge in every category, but I think the Cards have a great shot in this series. Both the offense and starting rotation could have a slight edge over Texas. The only place I see a clear advantage is the bullpen, but if the Cards bullpen continues its run of success, that would be mitigated. I think the Cards have a great shot at arriving in Texas with a 2-0 lead. They are favored in Game 1 and I suspect they will also be in Game 2. From there they need to win one in Texas, then one more in St. Louis. It should be a great series. It's hard for me to pick my team because I feel like I'll only be setting myself up for disappointment but I see the Cards winning this series in six games. I have the Cards +140 and the number has come down a bit, but I still think there is some value.
Tuesday, October 18, 2011
World Series: The Essential Cardinals Music
As you are undoubtedly aware, the Cardinals are playing for their 11th World Championship (#win11for11in11) beginning Wednesday night. Between now and then, I'll have a number of posts covering the series from all angles. This post covers the music that is essential for every Cards fan to be bumping.
FOX Baseball Theme- It's the Fall Classic. Nothing says big game like hearing this intro music before Joe Buck's intro and Tim McCarver's whatever. Don't forget about Scooter!
The Albert Pujols Song- What a catchy tune. If anyone knows where I can get the full version, let me know.
Here Comes the King- For my money, it didn't get any better than hearing this in Old Busch with Ernie Hays on the keys. Seeing the videos of old Busch brought a tear to my eye.
Who Let the Cards Out- Remember when 'Who Let the Dogs Out' was the top song in the country? Guess when this was made?
Spirit of '82- A little before my time, but I imagine the spirit of Cardinal Nation is just as strong now as it was then.
The Rally Song- Brand new song just dropped two days ago. Far from a classic, but appreciate the effort.
The Cardinals are Coming- My current favorite Cardinals song. I love the jazz flute around the one minute mark.
The Tony LaRussa- Since TLR is the longest tenured manager, this is still appropriate. Big ups if someone can remix it with names from the current team. Mike Gallego!?
The Heat Is On- Another 'cover' song, this time over Glenn Frey's song. This also has audio clips from Jack Buck and Mike Shannon, among others.
Birds On My Bat- Some guys going at it over the beat to 'What You Know' by TI. King is a very underrated and forgotten album. It would be one of the better ones released this year.
The St. Louis Sports Band- These guys are AWESOME; Relevant songs include Albert Pujols, Tony LaRussa, Don't Run on Yadier Molina, and Chris Carpenter (is Always Hurt). Check out there album on iTunes for more songs.
One last note- Joshua, the great artist behind hits like 'Girlfriend', 'Circus of Love', and 'Love is like a Circus', will be debuting with Cardinals tribute song, 'Slamalamadingdong' tomorrow. Much like Joshua's other work, it should be a classic. The last time Joshua's music was associated with the Cardinals, 'Girlfriend' was used as Colby Rasmus' walk up music. Rasmus proceeded to strike out six times in two games and changed the music.
Did I miss anything? Let me know in the comments!
FOX Baseball Theme- It's the Fall Classic. Nothing says big game like hearing this intro music before Joe Buck's intro and Tim McCarver's whatever. Don't forget about Scooter!
The Albert Pujols Song- What a catchy tune. If anyone knows where I can get the full version, let me know.
Here Comes the King- For my money, it didn't get any better than hearing this in Old Busch with Ernie Hays on the keys. Seeing the videos of old Busch brought a tear to my eye.
Who Let the Cards Out- Remember when 'Who Let the Dogs Out' was the top song in the country? Guess when this was made?
Spirit of '82- A little before my time, but I imagine the spirit of Cardinal Nation is just as strong now as it was then.
The Rally Song- Brand new song just dropped two days ago. Far from a classic, but appreciate the effort.
The Cardinals are Coming- My current favorite Cardinals song. I love the jazz flute around the one minute mark.
The Tony LaRussa- Since TLR is the longest tenured manager, this is still appropriate. Big ups if someone can remix it with names from the current team. Mike Gallego!?
The Heat Is On- Another 'cover' song, this time over Glenn Frey's song. This also has audio clips from Jack Buck and Mike Shannon, among others.
Birds On My Bat- Some guys going at it over the beat to 'What You Know' by TI. King is a very underrated and forgotten album. It would be one of the better ones released this year.
The St. Louis Sports Band- These guys are AWESOME; Relevant songs include Albert Pujols, Tony LaRussa, Don't Run on Yadier Molina, and Chris Carpenter (is Always Hurt). Check out there album on iTunes for more songs.
One last note- Joshua, the great artist behind hits like 'Girlfriend', 'Circus of Love', and 'Love is like a Circus', will be debuting with Cardinals tribute song, 'Slamalamadingdong' tomorrow. Much like Joshua's other work, it should be a classic. The last time Joshua's music was associated with the Cardinals, 'Girlfriend' was used as Colby Rasmus' walk up music. Rasmus proceeded to strike out six times in two games and changed the music.
Did I miss anything? Let me know in the comments!
Friday, September 30, 2011
MLB Playoff Log5
Sorry I couldn't get this up before the first two games. I was up at 4:45 working on it but had to hit the gym before work. Fun stuff.
Friday, September 16, 2011
NFL Survivor Week 2
This year rather than updating the same sheet on my spreadsheet, I am creating different worksheets for each week's strategy. After the first week, it's already very interesting to see how the lines for the remaining games change based on only one week. The Arizona-Cincinati Week 16 game I mentioned in a previous post has moved five points in Arizona's favor. That game isn't the only major mover: The Eagles were pick'em with the Dolphins in Week 14 and now are favored by seven in that game. There is potential to have substantial middles if you place your bets right.
Here is my new plan.
Already Used:Houston
I don't think this maximizes the points in my favor but it uses up the best teams early. Hopefully by the time weeks 16 and 17 roll around Tennessee and Denver will either look like better picks or another team will emerge as a surprise.
The pick this week is Green Bay -10 at Carolina.
Here is my new plan.
Already Used:
I don't think this maximizes the points in my favor but it uses up the best teams early. Hopefully by the time weeks 16 and 17 roll around Tennessee and Denver will either look like better picks or another team will emerge as a surprise.
The pick this week is Green Bay -10 at Carolina.
Sunday, September 11, 2011
Will this cause all NCAA hell to break loose? I hope so.
I saw this article in the NYT this morning and thought it was pretty good.
On Campus, It's One Big Commerical
Despite being the paper of record, the New York Times is usually late on what's actually going on in culture and style. When I started college four years ago, these types of practices existed various. None of them were as integrated as the Target/UNC relationship, but this is not a new "issue" as the NYT and UNC frame it.
I say "issue" because this article makes it sound like a potential problem. In a shocking twist, the establishment is worried about the college student becoming too tied to "the man". This was my favorite portion of the article:
The more interesting aspect of this story is how these types of relationships would be treated by the NCAA. The article says that companies are seeking students, "involved in athletics, music, fraternities or sororities" and that these students, "can earn several hundred to several thousand dollars a semester in salary, perks, products and services, depending on the company." Uh oh.
If non-athletes are allowed to engage in these relationships with no bound to compensation, why wouldn't athletes? What would stop Nike, Adidas, or a non-athletic brand from approaching Heisman Candidate X with an offer to provide him with products or payment in return for his advancing the brand? I'm guessing the NCAA would argue that the athlete is using his or her status as an athlete to better himself or herself. As we know, only the NCAA and the school are allowed to make money off the athletes. If an non-athlete student is President of a major fraternity or is that person who friended everyone in the class freshman year, who will stop them from parlaying that status into compensation? No one. I would love to see this scenario play out.
On Campus, It's One Big Commerical
Despite being the paper of record, the New York Times is usually late on what's actually going on in culture and style. When I started college four years ago, these types of practices existed various. None of them were as integrated as the Target/UNC relationship, but this is not a new "issue" as the NYT and UNC frame it.
I say "issue" because this article makes it sound like a potential problem. In a shocking twist, the establishment is worried about the college student becoming too tied to "the man". This was my favorite portion of the article:
But Mr. Crisp says he was unaware of the American Eagle effort on his campus. He worried aloud that students and parents might mistake such promotions as having the university’s imprimatur.
“They are not supposed to be using the opportunity to help people move in as a way of forwarding commercial ventures,” he said, standing near the cash registers at Target that evening, as upperclassmen handed out free VitaminWater, Combos and packages of macaroni and cheese.
This is classic. The university is fine with companies being involved as long as the university is getting a cut. Crisp has another follow up quote:
“I don’t think we have a good grip on it,” Mr. Crisp says. “We are going to need to get a good grip on it.” The challenge, he says, is to balance potential student employment opportunities against practices that could manipulate undergraduates or dilute the U.N.C. experience.
Earlier in the article, the Target event was described as:
Over the course of the evening, about 2,200 Carolina students make their way through the aisles. Mr. Crisp describes the party as the school’s “signature event” for the start of the school year.
I don't know anyone who went to UNC ten years ago, but I'd guess they'd be appalled to know that the signature Freshmen event is basically a giant party at Target, sponsored by Target. New traditions need to start and I don't have a problem with companies playing in role in new traditions. It's laughable that the University feels like it needs to be the one to decide what brands are permitted to help form the new traditions (and pay the university), but that students, the ones paying an arm and leg for tuition (and in most cases the tradition/name brand of the school) and actually attending the school, shouldn't be allowed to. Back to Crisp:
“How we police that and how we deal with our students, who after all are our students, is probably something we need to spend some more time thinking about.”
The more interesting aspect of this story is how these types of relationships would be treated by the NCAA. The article says that companies are seeking students, "involved in athletics, music, fraternities or sororities" and that these students, "can earn several hundred to several thousand dollars a semester in salary, perks, products and services, depending on the company." Uh oh.
If non-athletes are allowed to engage in these relationships with no bound to compensation, why wouldn't athletes? What would stop Nike, Adidas, or a non-athletic brand from approaching Heisman Candidate X with an offer to provide him with products or payment in return for his advancing the brand? I'm guessing the NCAA would argue that the athlete is using his or her status as an athlete to better himself or herself. As we know, only the NCAA and the school are allowed to make money off the athletes. If an non-athlete student is President of a major fraternity or is that person who friended everyone in the class freshman year, who will stop them from parlaying that status into compensation? No one. I would love to see this scenario play out.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)