About Last Night

As you are undoubtedly aware, the Cardinals are playing for their 11th World Championship (#win11for11in11) beginning Wednesday night. Between now and then, I'll have a number of posts covering the series from all angles. This post discusses Game Three.


When Albert Pujols stepped into the batters box against Alexi Ogando in the sixth inning the score was 8-6 in favor of Pujols' Cardinals. At that point, both teams had batted around and were on their third pitchers. It was an ugly, trying game and it felt like the Rangers were inching closer and closer to topping the Cardinals. With the crowd about 95% Rangers fans, if the Rangers ever got the lead, they weren't giving it back. That ballpark rocks the way Old Busch did: It's loud. Albert was holding the master remote though. Much like he did in the 2005 NLCS, after his at bat against Ogando, the volume was one notch above mute.


I was standing behind the Rangers family and wives, underneath an overhang. When Albert struck the ball, it was clearly a home run, the question was how far would it go. We never saw the ball come down; all we saw was the scramble for it by the Sonic billboard in leftfield. It was incredible, but that wasn't the end of this historical night. The Cardinals went on to bat around in the sixth so Albert was up again in the seventh. Lefthander Mike Gonzalez was in for the Rangers. His father was sitting directly ahead of me and when Gonzalez walked Allen Craig ahead of Albert, Mr. Gonzalez nervously got up and looked disturbed. He must have felt something because Albert deposited Gonzalez's pitch into the left centerfield bleachers. At this point, I turned to my friend and the other Cardinal fans around us and went crazy. Albert was 4-5 with 2 HR, 5 RBI. This was the greatest postseason performance by the greatest player I will ever see. 


As the Cards expanded their lead, we all figured TLR would give Yadi a break by moving him to first base for the final inning or so and letting Gerald Laird catch and get an AB. That was apparently Albert's plan too: He wanted to give Laird the AB, but the other Hall of Famer in the dugout sensed that Albert had a shot to rewrite the record books and told Albert to take the AB. Darren Oliver was pitching for the Rangers. Since 2007, Oliver has given up 0.6 HR/9. This year it was even lower at 0.5 and he hadn't allowed a home run since May 2nd. Albert mashes lefties so we figured he had a pretty good shot at getting a fifth hit which is nothing to sneeze at. 


At some point before his AB, I asked my friend who else besides Reggie Jackson had hit three HRs in a World Series game. Neither of us knew, but we figured there was so little chance of it happening that we didn't bother to look it up. Every time you watch a baseball game, you are reminded that it truly is a game of inches. In Game One of this series, the Cardinals won because Allen Craig got a hit that just eluded Nelson Cruz's sliding attempt. The ball actually deflected off Cruz's shoe to keep it in front of him. Both teams got a break there. In Game Two, Ian Kinsler's 9th inning single dropped in the smallest of spaces between Rafael Furcal and Matt Holliday, then he stole despite an absolutely perfect throw by Yadier Molina because he was able to have an even more perfect slide. Last night, Albert hit a foul pop up just out of Mike Napoli's reach. I told my friend, "if it weren't for Napoli's catcher's alligator arms, that's an out." Albert had life and when Albert has a shot, do not bet against him. Ever. 


The official attendance for the game was 51,462, but there are not 51,642 people in this world who can honestly say they saw Albert Pujols hit three home runs in the World Series. Many fans cleared out, but those regardless of affiliation those remaining fans realized the magnitude of what they just saw. Rangers and Cardinals fans alike were applauding and bowing in worship to King Albert. I was hoping that due to the extent of the respect he'd receive that he'd come out and give a curtain call, but it didn't happen. 


I was shaking for the remainder of the game in awe of what I had seen. Leaving the stadium, we high-fived every Cardinals fan we saw. Rangers fans were not bitter and said they were glad to witness history. It was remarkable. Over a post game dinner, I talked about what the best game I've ever seen was because last night was so special. After some thinking, I slotted it at number two behind Game Seven of the 2004 NLCS. On an individual performance level, however, there is #1 and then a very, very wide gap. I noted in my recap of the season how Albert was relatively quiet at games I went to this year. Not anymore. 

World Series: The Matchup

As you are undoubtedly aware, the Cardinals are playing for their 11th World Championship (#win11for11in11) beginning Wednesday night. Between now and then, I'll have a number of posts covering the series from all angles. This post breaks down both teams and concludes with my pick.



Back when I ran the Log5 for the playoffs, this matchup was projected to occur 3.4% of the time which barely edged out the Cardinals-Rays matchup for the least likely World Series pairing. As of the night before the series, the Rangers are the consensus favorite in the series. Here's a look at the key aspects of each team:

Rangers Rotation: CJ Wilson, Colby Lewis, Derek Holland, Matt Harrison
Free agent to be CJ Wilson leads the Rangers pitching staff. Ironically, it is his fault (and Prince Fielder's boost) that gave the Cardinals home field advantage in this series. This season was only Wilson's second as a full time starter and he improved dramatically upon last year's transition. He does walk a fair number of hitters.

Somewhat similarly, Colby Lewis spent the season pitching in Japan two years ago and this marked his second year back in the states. Unfortunately for him, it didn't go as well as 2010. Lewis led the league in home runs allowed and saw his other ratio stats move in the wrong direction. Lewis, like Jaime Garcia, had a dramatic home/road split, but Lewis is a much stronger pitcher on the road.

Derek Holland is possibly more volatile than Jaime Garcia. He led the league by throwing four shutouts but still finished with an ERA around 4. He is only 24 years old. He represents a wild card for the Rangers.

Rounding out the Rangers rotation is one of the pieces acquired in the Mark Teixeira trade, Matt Harrison. Harrison set a new career high for innings pitched this year and started one fewer game this season than he had in the prior three seasons combined. Harrison may be the Rangers' second best pitcher behind Wilson.

Cardinals Rotation: Chris Carpenter, Jaime Garcia, Kyle Lohse, Edwin Jackson

Remarkably, the Cardinals were able to get past the Brewers despite needing the bullpen to throw at least four innings in each game. At their best, the Cardinals rotation is one of the team's strengths. Carpenter overcame a slow start to have a great season and is the unquestionable staff ace. He turned in dynamite performances in the final game of the season and NLDS Game 5. He did not look as good in the NLCS and there was some concern that his elbow would prevent him from making a potential NLCS Game 7 start. Fortunately, Game 7 wasn't required and Carpenter appears healthy now. 

The Cardinals need to treat Jaime Garcia with kid gloves. He is a markedly different pitcher in Busch Stadium than anywhere else. It's no surprise he will start Game 2. Given his track record at Busch, a strong start can be expected. 

Kyle Lohse had the mirror opposite season as Carpenter: He started off hot but faded towards the end of the season. When Lohse is on the mound, you don't worry about if the other team will score, but how many they'll get. If he can use his pitch to contact approach to limit the Rangers to three or four runs over six innings, that would be a fine contribution. 

When the Cardinals traded for Jackson and friends, many, including me, were upset. While I did not dispute that the trade made the team better at the moment, I was worried about 1) the long term consequences of the deal and 2) the trade not improving the team enough to make the playoffs. Objection #2 was clearly disproven and considering Colby Rasmus' play in Toronto, objection #1 is on the path to invalidation as well. As for Jackson's value to the Cardinals in this series- he is the true wildcard. The knock on Jackson is his lack of command. The stuff is there. He oozes potential. Remember this is the pitcher who threw 149 pitches in a no-hitter that included EIGHT walks. Jackson was so poor in his last outing that TLR pulled him after two innings. A friend remarked to me that he was glad the team has no chance of resigning Jackson because it's painful to watch him pitch. Maybe there's a Jeff Weaver start in him to boost his market value before that happens. 

Edge: Very, very close- Rangers. 

Rangers Bullpen:
Neftali Feliz, Alexi Ogando, Mike Adams, and Koji Uehara are all really, really good. Feliz struggled for most of the year and walked way too many batters, but still finished with an 2.74 ERA. Ogando was a starter for most of the year, but transitioned to the pen for the stretch run and to limit his innings. So far in the postseason he has worked 7.2 innings and struck out ten. Adams and Uehara were both acquired at the trade deadline and found themselves right at home. Adams showed why most baseball people preferred to trade for him rather than teammate Heath Bell. He also proved that he was not a product of Petco Park, but was, in fact, nasty. Uehara got unlucky with his home runs but had a 23 K/BB ratio (1 BB!) as a member of the Rangers.

Cardinals Bullpen:
As referenced above, the Cardinals bullpen was worked hard in the Milwaukee series. Remarkably, they held most of the leads. The bullpen has been the team's biggest weakness over the past two seasons which made the performance in the NLCS even more astounding. Starting from the back, Jason Motte serves as the team's closer. He throws heat and that's it. Since he broke in with the big league team in 2009, the only person who has given Motte trouble is himself. I have full confidence in his ability to shut down any part of any order.

Setting up in front of Motte from the right side are Fernando Salas, Octavio Dotel, and Mitchell Boggs. Salas is a very useful pitcher with command of a four average pitches. He is prone to the longball which cost him the closer's job down the stretch. Dotel was acquired in the Rasmus trade and pitched well enough down the stretch. The biggest reason for that was the second lowest walk rate of his career. Like Salas, Boggs also had a shot at closer, but lost it. He doesn't throw as hard as Motte, but he brings heat and can mix in some offspeed stuff as well. Boggs should be the last righthander used in the pen.

On the left side of the bullpen are two pitchers who both joined the team after July 27th- Marc Rzepczynski (search B-Ref for Marc R to spell it!) and Arthur Rhodes. Rhodes is in the same position as Bengie Molina was last year in that he'll get a ring no matter what since he was released by the Rangers in August. Rhodes is the specialist of the two and won't pitch to more than one or two hitters and they must be lefthanded. He made some big pitches in the earlier rounds of the playoffs. Rzepczynski is hailed as the only ray of hope to come from the Rasmus trade. He is a young pitcher with potential. He has been rock solid in the playoffs showing ability to retire both lefthanded and righthanded hitters.

Edge: The Cardinals bullpen isn't as good as the last round made them out to be. Motte is the only Cardinal to rank with the Rangers crop of relievers. Rangers.


Rangers Hitters:
The Rangers have a very strong offensive team and receive contributions from almost every position on the diamond. Starting behind the plate, Mike Napoli mashes to the tune of a 1.046 OPS. The other big power threats are Adrian Beltre, Josh Hamilton, and Nelson Cruz. All had slugging percentages over .500. Cruz and Beltre have already exploded in the playoffs, but Hamilton has been quiet. If he gets his bat going too, it will be a long series for the Cardinals pitchers. Elvis Andrus doesn't hit for much power but he gets on base well and is a major base stealing threat. It will be great to see him attempt to steal on Yadier Molina. The strangest story in the Rangers season was the Michael Young ordeal. At the beginning of Spring Training, it looked like the team would trade him and there were stories coming out regarding Young's displeasure with the whole situation. He ultimately was not traded and the Rangers got a very productive season. Although he only hit 11 home runs, his 41 doubles allowed him to lead the team in RBI. Young will probably play first base in Game 2 and possibly in Game 1 but will serve as DH for the games in Texas. The normal first baseman is Mitch Moreland who wasn't able to build off his success in last year's playoffs. Rounding out the starting lineup is Ian Kinsler, a University of Missouri product, who is coming off one of the quietest 30/30 seasons in history. The Rangers bench is composed of David Murphy, Yorvit Torrealba, Craig Gentry, and Endy Chavez. Murphy has enjoyed success in the past, but never got it going this year. Torrealba is a great defense catcher and could be inserted for Napoli in late game situations.

Cardinals Hitters:
Led by the trio of Albert Pujols, Matt Holliday, and Lance Berkman, the Cardinals offense has hit its stride over the past three weeks. Albert has been killing everying. Berkman continues to get on base at a high clip and get big hits. Holliday suffered through a very strange season and never seemed to get everything on the same page. The big story of the playoffs so far has been third baseman David Freese. I doubted his ability coming into the season, but when he is healthy, he's quite a player. Jon Jay has also shown himself to be the real deal. Watching him execute perfect hit and runs, bunt, and make outstanding catches in the outfield reminds me of all the things Colby would never have been able to do. Yadier Molina had the best offensive season of his career and continues to be the best defensive catcher in baseball. The only holes in the Cardinals lineup are up the middle. Rafael Furcal has helped out since coming over from the Dodgers on July 31st, but that's primarily because his defense is such an upgrade over Ryan Theriot's. Second base has been a mix match of Skip Schumaker, Ryan Theriot, and Nick Punto. All provide nearly the same offensive value and Theriot and Punto are much better defensively than Schumaker, a former outfielder. The bench features a major weapon in Allen Craig who will serve as the DH in Texas. Craig will be the best DH from an NL World Series team in recent memory. This is certainly true for the Cardinals playoff teams during the Pujols era. In 2004 and 2006, Chris Duncan, Marlon Anderson, Scott Speizio, and Reggie Sanders served as DH in the AL parks. Craig is a much better hitter than all four. Gerald Laird is only on the bench as Molina insurance and probably won't see a single pitch. Rookie Adron Chambers has great speed, but could find himself left off the roster.

Edge: Rangers, barely. 

Overall Thoughts:
I gave the Rangers the edge in every category, but I think the Cards have a great shot in this series. Both the offense and starting rotation could have a slight edge over Texas. The only place I see a clear advantage is the bullpen, but if the Cards bullpen continues its run of success, that would be mitigated. I think the Cards have a great shot at arriving in Texas with a 2-0 lead. They are favored in Game 1 and I suspect they will also be in Game 2. From there they need to win one in Texas, then one more in St. Louis. It should be a great series. It's hard for me to pick my team because I feel like I'll only be setting myself up for disappointment but I see the Cards winning this series in six games. I have the Cards +140 and the number has come down a bit, but I still think there is some value.

World Series: The Essential Cardinals Music

As you are undoubtedly aware, the Cardinals are playing for their 11th World Championship (#win11for11in11) beginning Wednesday night. Between now and then, I'll have a number of posts covering the series from all angles. This post covers the music that is essential for every Cards fan to be bumping. 

FOX Baseball Theme- It's the Fall Classic. Nothing says big game like hearing this intro music before Joe Buck's intro and Tim McCarver's whatever. Don't forget about Scooter!

The Albert Pujols Song- What a catchy tune. If anyone knows where I can get the full version, let me know.

Here Comes the King- For my money, it didn't get any better than hearing this in Old Busch with Ernie Hays on the keys. Seeing the videos of old Busch brought a tear to my eye.

Who Let the Cards Out- Remember when 'Who Let the Dogs Out' was the top song in the country? Guess when this was made?

Spirit of '82- A little before my time, but I imagine the spirit of Cardinal Nation is just as strong now as it was then.

The Rally Song- Brand new song just dropped two days ago. Far from a classic, but appreciate the effort.

The Cardinals are Coming- My current favorite Cardinals song. I love the jazz flute around the one minute mark.

The Tony LaRussa- Since TLR is the longest tenured manager, this is still appropriate. Big ups if someone can remix it with names from the current team. Mike Gallego!?

The Heat Is On- Another 'cover' song, this time over Glenn Frey's song. This also has audio clips from Jack Buck and Mike Shannon, among others.

Birds On My Bat- Some guys going at it over the beat to 'What You Know' by TI. King is a very underrated and forgotten album. It would be one of the better ones released this year.

The St. Louis Sports Band- These guys are AWESOME; Relevant songs include Albert Pujols, Tony LaRussa, Don't Run on Yadier Molina, and Chris Carpenter (is Always Hurt). Check out there album on iTunes for more songs.

One last note- Joshua, the great artist behind hits like 'Girlfriend', 'Circus of Love', and 'Love is like a Circus', will be debuting with Cardinals tribute song, 'Slamalamadingdong' tomorrow. Much like Joshua's other work, it should be a classic. The last time Joshua's music was associated with the Cardinals, 'Girlfriend' was used as Colby Rasmus' walk up music. Rasmus proceeded to strike out six times in two games and changed the music.

Did I miss anything? Let me know in the comments!

MLB Playoff Log5

Sorry I couldn't get this up before the first two games. I was up at 4:45 working on it but had to hit the gym before work. Fun stuff.

NFL Survivor Week 2

This year rather than updating the same sheet on my spreadsheet, I am creating different worksheets for each week's strategy. After the first week, it's already very interesting to see how the lines for the remaining games change based on only one week. The Arizona-Cincinati Week 16 game I mentioned in a previous post has moved five points in Arizona's favor. That game isn't the only major mover: The Eagles were pick'em with the Dolphins in Week 14 and now are favored by seven in that game. There is potential to have substantial middles if you place your bets right.

Here is my new plan.

Already Used: Houston



I don't think this maximizes the points in my favor but it uses up the best teams early. Hopefully by the time weeks 16 and 17 roll around Tennessee and Denver will either look like better picks or another team will emerge as a surprise.

The pick this week is Green Bay -10 at Carolina.

Will this cause all NCAA hell to break loose? I hope so.

I saw this article in the NYT this morning and thought it was pretty good.

On Campus, It's One Big Commerical

Despite being the paper of record, the New York Times is usually late on what's actually going on in culture and style. When I started college four years ago, these types of practices existed various. None of them were as integrated as the Target/UNC relationship, but this is not a new "issue" as the NYT and UNC frame it.

I say "issue" because this article makes it sound like a potential problem. In a shocking twist, the establishment is worried about the college student becoming too tied to "the man". This was my favorite portion of the article:

But Mr. Crisp says he was unaware of the American Eagle effort on his campus. He worried aloud that students and parents might mistake such promotions as having the university’s imprimatur.

“They are not supposed to be using the opportunity to help people move in as a way of forwarding commercial ventures,” he said, standing near the cash registers at Target that evening, as upperclassmen handed out free VitaminWater, Combos and packages of macaroni and cheese.  

This is classic. The university is fine with companies being involved as long as the university is getting a cut. Crisp has another follow up quote:

 “I don’t think we have a good grip on it,” Mr. Crisp says. “We are going to need to get a good grip on it.”  The challenge, he says, is to balance potential student employment opportunities against practices that could manipulate undergraduates or dilute the U.N.C. experience.

Earlier in the article, the Target event was described as:

Over the course of the evening, about 2,200 Carolina students make their way through the aisles. Mr. Crisp describes the party as the school’s “signature event” for the start of the school year.

I don't know anyone who went to UNC ten years ago, but I'd guess they'd be appalled to know that the signature Freshmen event is basically a giant party at Target, sponsored by Target. New traditions need to start and I don't have a problem with companies playing in role in new traditions. It's laughable that the University feels like it needs to be the one to decide what brands are permitted to help form the new traditions (and pay the university), but that students, the ones paying an arm and leg for tuition (and in most cases the tradition/name brand of the school) and actually attending the school, shouldn't be allowed to. Back to Crisp:

“How we police that and how we deal with our students, who after all are our students, is probably something we need to spend some more time thinking about.”

The more interesting aspect of this story is how these types of relationships would be treated by the NCAA. The article says that companies are seeking students, "involved in athletics, music, fraternities or sororities" and that these students, "can earn several hundred to several thousand dollars a semester in salary, perks, products and services, depending on the company." Uh oh. 


If non-athletes are allowed to engage in these relationships with no bound to compensation, why wouldn't athletes? What would stop Nike, Adidas, or a non-athletic brand from approaching Heisman Candidate X with an offer to provide him with products or payment in return for his advancing the brand? I'm guessing the NCAA would argue that the athlete is using his or her status as an athlete to better himself or herself. As we know, only the NCAA and the school are allowed to make money off the athletes. If an non-athlete student is President of a major fraternity or is that person who friended everyone in the class freshman year, who will stop them from parlaying that status into compensation? No one. I would love to see this scenario play out. 

NFL Survivor Week 1 Update

Just a quick update to my survivor strategy going into Week 1. Obviously the big news in the NFL is that Peyton Manning is out indefinitely. This has repercussions on the whole strategy as I had planned on using the Colts in Week 12. The Week 1 line for the Texans-Colts game has also changed drastically: With Manning the line would be Colts -3/4, without him it's Texans -10. Here are the changes.

Week 1: Texans
Week 12: San Diego (Former Week 1 team)
Week 15: New York Giants (Replacing Texans)

NFL Survivor Week 1

Survival pools are one of my favorite things to do during the NFL season. I compete in the simplest variety- pick one team to win straight up each week (of course the team can't be used more than once). More competitive pools force contestants to pick two teams and in some cases the team(s) must win against the spread.

For my purposes, I have a clear strategy that I've used the past two years. I compile an Excel spreadsheet of all the point spreads for each game of the season, then I find the combination of picks that fit the criteria (one team per week, only use each team once) that maximizes the number of points I have in my favor over the course of the season. This is the perfect thing to use the Excel Solver add on, but the free version won't accept this many inputs and I don't want to pay $200 for the paid version; I think I do a good enough job eyeballing it.

Here's my strategy going into week 1:


A couple of notes:

• Just pick whoever is playing the Cardinals or Panthers. 
• Every division is picked except the NFC West which is picked against. 
• It's looking more and more like Peyton Manning won't play in Week 1 vs Houston. The game has been taken off the board. Once Manning's status is clear, the Texans could be in the mix for the week 1 selection. 
• Looking at every single point spread is a good exercise. For example, the Bengals, my week 16 selection, are favored by seven points in that game against the Cardinals. I don't think the Bengals should be favored by seven points against a high school team. They'll probably win because the Cardinals won't be very good, but I except that line to be much tighter come kickoff. 

StarStreet

I first heard about StarStreet at the MIT Sports Analytics Conference in March. Some of you may remember Protrade; StarStreet is trying to do the same thing except it uses real money. When StarStreet first started trading, there was no backing to the players. It made no sense. The only way to make money was to buy a player and hope the site grew and people would want to buy popular players. It seemed like a short lived idea and within a month or two, the market had stalled because the site had stopped growing. I know of at least one person who made money though.

On August 1st, StarStreet announced a new valuation system based on player performance (here). There is still one aspect I'm a little unclear about and that's the idea of proportional value. In the actual stock market everything can go down or up independently of each other. If Apple blows out its earnings report, if will go up even if Cisco does too. For StarStreet, if Jose Bautista hits three home runs, he will only go up if the other offered players do not increase their value to the same extent.

Since the new valuation system was started with around 100 games of data, the final payouts based on relative fantasy points were already priced into the StarStreet determined IPO. The only way a player could see a substantial change in value would be an injury and since StarStreet doesn't allow short sales (yet?), there's no way to make money off that.

Nevertheless, here is a chart of the StarStreet offered players with their final projected price vs. last traded price. I used the ZiPS RoS projections available at Fangraphs.



It's not surprising to see the players (Ubaldo and Liriano) with good track records but underperforming this season be projected to return the most value. As I write this, Ubaldo is getting shelled in Detroit so I wouldn't go buying his shares just yet. As I wrote above, I wouldn't expected any drastic returns from the MLB market.

NFL Season

With the lockout over, I guess I have to get back into football. I'll have a large post about survivor pool strategy coming up later this week, but I thought I'd throw up some basic stuff. I used Sbet's lines for each game this season.

First, here is a ranking of the teams based on average point spread. This DOES NOT represent who the best team is; rather, it is a combination of team skill and strength of schedule.


Next, projected wins for each team based on the individual game spreads vs. win totals offered at Sbet .


I used a difference of two wins to determine which were favorable bets.

Updated MLB Season Wins Totals

Forgot to post yesterday.

• At this point, it's tough to bet against the Phillies, despite what the numbers say. 
• Betting against the Pirates to finish .500 seems solid. 
• As of 7/27, the Dodgers have the #2 pitcher and hitter in the NL by WAR. I think the over is a good play. 

Updated MLB Season Wins Totals

I'm working on a bigger post that looks at the changes in each team's total over the course of the season. That might go up tomorrow, but more likely Thursday. Here is the traditional update post.



There's a lot of red on the board as the lines are set with the team's full season expectations in line. If you buy into the Pirates (I don't) now is your chance to get a good number on them. It's hard to imagine the Dodgers continuing to play this poorly. Based on the line, they are projected to finish last in the NL West.

The Futures Game

Tomorrow, the 12th 13th annual Futures GAme will be played in Phoenix. I look forward to this event each year as it allows the top prospects in the game to face off against each other, regardless of level. It's common for players in rookie ball to face off against AA aces. The game began in 1999 at Fenway Park. I was fortunate enough to attend the 2003-2005 iterations and again in 2009. I watch each year and long to attend. Here are my rankings for the top collections of talent and some thoughts on this year's game. My rankings are based on career to date and future projection. I'm not surprised the more recent games rank higher as there have been fewer "busts" because the players are still young enough to get a shot.

1. 2004- Joe Blanton, Matt Cain, Robinson Cano, Fausto Carmona, Shin Soo Choo, John Danks, Prince Fielder, Gavin Floyd, Felix Hernandez, Aaron Hill, Justin Morneau, Tim Stauffer, BJ Upton, Rickie Weeks, David Wright, Delmon Young. Cano, Prince, Felix, and Wright headline this class. Add in Weeks, Morneau, Cain, and Choo. 

2. 2006- Ryan Braun, Billy Butler, Stephen Drew, Yunel Escobar, Yovani Gallardo, Jaime Garcia, Carlos Gonzalez, Gio Gonzalez, Alex Gordon, Phil Hughes, Howie Kendrick, Cameron Maybin, Hunter Pence, Pablo Sandoval, Kurt Suzuki, Jose Tabata, Troy Tulowitzki, Joey Votto. No surprise that the game immediately following the legendary 2005 draft is highly rated. 2005 draftees Tulowitzki and Braun would challenge for the ROY in 2007. This group has already produced an MVP and a Cy is possible with Gio, Gallardo, or Jaime. 

3. 2003- Robinson Cano, Jorge De La Rosa, Gavin Floyd, Zack Greinke, Franklin Gutierrez, Rich Harden, JJ Hardy, Ryan Howard, Edwin Jackson, Adam LaRoche, Joe Mauer, Alex Rios, Grady Sizemore, Chien Ming Wang, Kevin Youkilis. Injuries have prevented this group from being ranked #1, but it's hard to argue with the talent at the top. Mauer and Grienke had incredible 2009 seasons and are bonafide superstars. Ryan Howard is paid like a superstar. 

4. 2005- Jose Bautista, Fausto Carmona, Shin Soo Choo, Nelson Cruz, Francisco Liriano, Miguel Montero, Kendry Morales, Hanley Ramirez, Anibal Sanchez, BJ Upton, Justin Verlander, Edison Volquez, Chris Young (OF), Delmon Young. A year or two ago, this class would look completely different since Jose Bautista would be an afterthought. Now he is considered one of the best hitters in the game. 

5. 2007- Elvis Andrus, Jay Bruce, Clay Buchholz, Chris Coghlan, Jacoby Ellsbury, Carlos Gonzalez, Clayton Kershaw, Evan Longoria, Carmon Maybin, Jeff Niemann, Colby Rasmus, Geovany Soto, Justin Upton, Joey Votto. The rest of the 2005 draft- Bruce, Ellsbury, Rasmus, and Upton- make appearances along with MVP winners/candidates Joey Votto, Evan Longoria, and Carlos Gonzalez. 

6. 2009- Pedro Alvarez, Manny Banuelos, Madison Bumgarner, Starlin Castro, Jhoulys Chacin, Kyle Drabek, Danny Duffy, Danny Espinosa, Neftali Feliz, Jason Heyward, Desmond Jennings, Mat Latos, Brett Lawrie, Brian Matusz, Jesus Montero, Jarrod Parker, Carlos Santana, Mike Stanton. Two superstars upsides with Mike Stanton and Jason Heyward along with multiple all stars position players like Starlin Castro and Carlos Santana. This class still has some work to do but should climb in the rankings. 

7. 2002- Erik Bedard, Miguel Cabrera, Shin Soo Choo, Carl Crawford, Jorge De La Rosa, Corey Hart, Orlando Hudson, Francisco Liriano, Victor Martinez, Justin Morneau, Brett Myers, Brandon Phillips, Francisco Rodriguez, Adam Wainwright. Hard to find a better 1-2 than Crawford and Cabrera. 

8. 2010- Zach Britton, Domonic Brown, Lonnie Chisenhall, Danny Espinosa, Jeremy Hellickson, Eric Hosmer, Dan Hudson, Brett Jackson, Desmond Jennings, Brett Lawrie, Hak-Ju Lee, Shelby Miller, Mike Minor, Logan Morrison, Mike Moustakas, Julio Teheran, Mike Trout. This class still needs to develop but Trout, Miller, Hosmer, and Hellickson look like bonafide superstars. 

9. 1999- Rick Ankiel, Lance Berkman, AJ Burnett, Pat Burrell, Francisco Cordero, Michael Cuddyer, Rafael Furcal, Mark Mulder, Armais Ramirez, Alfonso Soriano, Vernon Wells. A couple of nice players, with Berkman being the best. This group fell off the cliff FAST. 

10. 2001- Erik Bedard, Hank Blalock, Miguel Cabrera, Adam Dunn, Adrian Gonzalez, Ryan Ludwick, Brett Myers, Carlos Pena, Chase Utley, Jose Valverde. Adrian Gonzalez, Miguel Cabrera, Chase Utley, and what? 

11. 2000- Josh Beckett, Mark Buehrle, Josh Hamilton, Carlos Pena, CC Sabathia, Ben Sheets, Vernon Wells, Barry Zito. An MVP and two Cy Youngs with some all stars.  

12. 2008- Brett Anderson, Elvis Andrus, Trevor Cahill, Andrew McCutchen, Jesus Montero, Cliff Pennington, Clayton Richard, Pablo Sandoval. The 2008 Olympics were going on at this time so many of the top prospects were playing in China.The US team in this game was the team that would represent the US in Beijing. USA Base all insisted on taking high level players like Jamie D'Antona (a former favorite prospect of mine) for "experience".  


The 2011 game should be one of the best. The US team has a loaded pitching staff and Bryce Harper. I'm looking forward to seeing Shelby Miller, Matt Moore, and Jacob Turner pitch. Matt Harvey, Kyle Gibson, Drew Pomeranz, and Tyler Skaggs aren't slouches either. Outside of Harper, the offensive side of the US team is less exciting. If Mike Trout hadn't been called up, it would be more exciting, but now the top prospects are Wil Myers, Manny Machado, and Devin Mesoraco. Grant Green, Paul Goldschmidt, Nolan Arenado, Matt Szczur, and some of the others are interesting hitters, but not elite prospects.

On the World side, as a Cardinals fan, I am looking forward to seeing Carlos Martinez in action. He has catapulted into the top 25 of Baseball America's prospects and should see more love this offseason. Besides him, the two Braves studs, Julio Teheran and Arodys Vizcaino (I saw him hit 100+ in ST) and Martin Perez are arms to watch. Offensively, Willin Rosario looks like the Rockies catcher of the future, Yonder Alonso is prime tradebait for the Reds, and Hak-Ju Lee is one of the top SS prospects in the minors. Fan favorite, Jose Altuve, is on the roster, as are low minor, high upside IF prospects Jurickson Profar and Jonathan Schoop.

The US pitching is so strong that I think it will prevail. As with most games, there is usually one big hit that blows the game open and pitching dominates the rest. Therefore, I have to give the US the edge.

Colby Rasmus and the HS Class of 2005

It's no secret that the 2005 MLB Draft was one of the greatest of all time. Out of the many great players selected, the quintet that was most interesting to me was the high school outfielders drafted in the first round. This group included the first overall pick, Justin Upton, who was called the best high school outfielder since Ken Griffey Jr. and was the younger brother of BJ who had been drafted second (probably should have gone first) overall in 2002. Justin had been on scouts' radar since the age of 14 and by all accounts combined phenomenal athleticism with advanced baseball skills. The rest of the HS outfield class included:

• Cameron Maybin 10th to Detroit
• Andrew McCutchen 11th to Pittsburgh
• Jay Bruce 12th to Cincinnati
• Colby Rasmus 28th to St. Louis

My favorite team in any sport, by a significant margin, is the St. Louis Cardinals. I watch every game and will be heartbroken if Albert leaves at the end of the season (My sabermetric hat is in the closet for this one). That being said, I've read about and watched more of Colby Rasmus than the average baseball fan. I was thrilled when the Cards did the "right" thing and kept him on the big league roster out of spring training in 2009. I was less thrilled when Rasmus didn't get everyday playing time in his first two seasons. In 2009, he lost the time to Chris Duncan and Rick Ankiel; In 2010, he was benched against left handed pitchers despite having a fine track record. The 2010 season involved a controversy that resulted in Albert Pujols saying if Rasmus did not want to be part of the team, he should leave. It became evident that Colby had demanded a trade, but after a "talk" with Albert, he rescinded the demand. 

His 2011 campaign has been disappointing thus far. This led me to nominate Colby as an overrated player in response to this tweet from BP stat guru Colin Wyers. Over and underrated are tricky terms to use. If everyone believes something is underrated, is it still underrated? No. For something to truly be over or underrated, the majority of people have to believe describing the item with that term is incorrect. 

Fortunately for this post, Colin didn't believe I was correct and even retweeted with his comment to show all his followers how offbase I was. He might not agree that Rasmus is overrated, but the way he challenged my suggestion, by saying Rasmus couldn't be overrated because he'd start for most teams, doesn't work because his overrated player, Craig Kimbrel, would play a prominent role in most teams' bullpens. So the perception is that Colby can't possibly be overrated. 

First, let's spell out what Colby is. Colby is a potential five tool player. His weakest skill is his arm, but that's not too important for a center fielder. He could provide gold glove defense due to his speed and instincts. He could hit 30 home runs in a year. It doesn't look like he'll be a .300 hitter, but consistent .280s with plenty of doubles is foreseeable. This all adds up to a very valuable player. The problem is Colby is in his third full season in the majors and hasn't developed at all. Part of this, in my opinion, has to do with the relationship between him and LaRussa, but a lot of it is on Colby. He frequently makes mental mistakes in the field and on the bases. At the plate, his strikeout rate, while down from 2010, is up from his rookie year in 2009. The power is not showing up: His ISO is lower than 2009 levels. He is a very inconsistent hitter and needs to improve his approach at bat to at bat. 

Watching him everyday has led me to believe he won't be a star, but will be a slightly better than league average centerfielder. Plenty of Cardinals fans are calling for the team to trade him. Unless you are a big believer in Jon Jay (you shouldn't be), the Cards shouldn't do this unless they can get an attractive package in return. Colby's value is low right now, so that seems unlikely. 

How does Colby compare to his draft classmates? (chart from Fangraphs)

I've omitted Cameron Maybin because he only has 4 career WAR. Rasmus lags the rest of the group. I actually believe Andrew McCutchen is one of the underrated players in the game and this shows he's an elite talent. This year, Rasmus trails the entire group. Maybin isn't qualified for the leaderboard, but has accumulated 1.8 WAR, ahead of Colby's 1.4.

Colby's development has stagnated. Upton, McCutchen, and Bruce look to be fixtures in the NL All Star outfield for years to come. Due to Maybin's provide excellent defense, he will continue to provide excellent value even by hitting at league average levels. There's still time left for Colby to break out, but it's possible the place for that to happen won't be in St. Louis. 

Updated MLB Season Wins Totals

Here's another update to the MLB season win totals. This spreadsheet was compiled before any of the games today. As always the lines come from sbet. Around the All Star break I'll try to do a post showing the change in each team's line, projection, and pace. Should be good stuff.



As always the BP numbers favor a team's true talent level while the pace numbers reflect current performance. Unsurprisingly, the bigger discrepancies involve teams on long winning streaks (the Nats) and long losing streaks (the Marlins). The sharp bettor knows to play against these streaks as most teams return to their true talent level (as the Indians and Red Sox have after their starts).

The Phillies again look like a nice under bet. Even at this ridiculous pace they will win just over 100 games. If one of the big four were to go down it seems likely they will miss 100 wins. Even with a healthy big four, their offense needs to improve for over 100 to be a solid play.  

Apple and Macroeconomic Ramblings

As most citizens of the internet know, Apple and Steve Jobs gave their keynote address at the annual Worldwide Developer Conference today. What stuck out to me was for the first time I could remember, no new, tangible products were introduced: the entire presentation focused on software. Thanks to the must read technology blog, Engadget, the last time this happened was 2007 when the focus was on Snow Leopard.

• In 2008, Apple made the most significant keynote in the iPhone era when it announced it would allow third party developers and a 3G version. This tipped the iPhone. 
• In 2009, Jobs was ill and Phil Schiller delivered the keynote. He introduced new Macbook Pros and the iPhone 3GS. (Aside: I seriously wonder if Phil Schiller gets more nervous before pitching things to Steve Jobs than doing the "warm up" before Steve takes the stage.) 
• In 2010, the iPhone 4 was introduced, but everyone already knew about it thanks to Gizmodo. (Aside: The 2007 iPhone keynote is the gold standard of keynotes. Nothing will ever come close. Seriously, it's still awesome to watch and I already know everything that will be said) 

So today's keynote that focused on iOS 5, iCloud, and Lion, bucked the recent trend. Ironically, my local 5:30 news still sent a reporter to the Apple store to report on the new developments. It's unclear if the news station realized that absolutely nothing, not even Lion, would be shipped to the store to be sold. Additionally, as anyone who has ever tried to talk to Apple store employees knows, they know nothing about new products. In fact, many of them don't read rumor sites or watch the keynotes and instead wait to learn about new things directly from Apple. This is because Apple does not like its employees feeding information to these rumor mills (although it has been happening more lately). 

So why is this significant and how does it relate to the economy? Well, last month I attended a the conference titled, New Building Blocks for Jobs and Economic Growth: Intangible Assets as Sources of Increased Productivity and Economic Value. The keynote speaker was Ben Bernanke, but he didn't say much of interest except "the Tweeter". He did reference the Solow growth model's technology level input and how half of the US's increase in output over a period of time is due to the increase in this factor. (Aside: Robert Solow spoke at my school's graduation, but not at my ceremony. I was disappointed. Our speaker was not so hot. At least he was short.) After Bernanke was rushed out as quickly as he was rushed in (what's the value of his time?), there was a roundtable discussion. The star of this panel, in my opinion, was Edward Jung who is the CTO for one of the coolest companies around, Intellectual Ventures in Seattle. Any company that comes up with stuff like this AND this is off the charts awesome. 

During the panel discussion, there were four topic areas and here are some points I thought most striking from each topic:

Global Competition and Collaboration

• Closed door innovation is impossible because any new idea depends on previous findings/ideas.
• It only takes 50-100 feet to build internal walls. Real innovation occurs when people are brought together. 
• People closest to the problem are most likely to solve it. It is easier to move culturally relevant people to the problem than to bring the problem to the solver. 

Boosting Competitiveness, Jobs, and Growth

• The difference in value produced by the most productive and least productive workers is small in tangible assets but massive in intangible assets.
• Biggest problem facing the US is equality of human capital, not just wages. 

Measurements and Metrics

• GAAP Accounting is an antiquated way of measuring value. (Aside: Prepping for the CPA exam, I can say I support this statement 1000%). Cash flow and profits often cause a business to tell stories rather than show data. Need to measure value of business decisions/relationships. 
• Nothing destroys growth like an over abundance of metrics because all the metrics push everyone in the same direction and brings the best down to average. 
• Information is only valuable if it affects the way decisions are made. 

Driving Next Generation Innovation

• Need continuous learning to deal with future changes. More of the workforce is working later in life and needs to be continually educated. 
• Capital goes to opportunity. Show it a way to make money and it will appear. 

These are some of the ideas I've been thinking about since the conference. Apple's announcements today  fall in line with many of these sentiments. The iPhone and anything Apple builds isn't much tangibly much different (better or worse is subjective) than anything Google, RIM, HTC, etc can pump out. As I attempted to hammer at in my post on RIM in April, Apple has a sizable advantage on RIM in software. Everything we saw today widens that gap, significantly; RIM is down ~30% since my post (Aside: I exited my short position early and left a lot of money on the table. Never again.) It's not only the iPhone that Apple has an intangible advantage. The iCloud platform appears to be better than anything Google or Amazon currently over. Specifically in the cloud music field, Apple was able to convert its purchase of Lala into something of value that exceeds anything the competition can offer. 

I hesitate to write the next sentence at the risk of sounding too much like a fan boy, but I would write this about any company that acts like Apple does, even if Steve Jobs wasn't the CEO and it didn't make gadgety products. Apple is a global leader in converting intangibles of any state into products and realizing substantial profits on them. In the keynote today, Jobs said that Apple has been, "working for ten years to get rid of the file system so the user doesn't have to learn about it." This shows not only remarkable foresight, but also a commitment to invest time and money into something that won't be physically produced and, as it turns out, actually sold. These are the types of investments more companies need to make. Being committed to intangibles allows Apple to create dynamite products because the products are not made until the underlying ideas (software) are in place to make the user experience ideal: Apple does not rush products.

Final Projection for Derek Jeter's 3,000th Hit!

We are finally nearing the end of Derek's quest for 3,000. He entered the season needing 74 hits to reach the milestone and he now sits only 16 away! Sbet has stopped offering odds on a specific date and instead has prices for each of the Yankees upcoming series. These are shown below:



The implied % column may look a little off. +150 odds typically implies a 40% probability and if it were offered alone or with a line of -150, then there would not be a problem. However, if each of these odds are taken in a vacuum (100/(100+Odds)) and summed, the summed percentage is 180%. This cannot be! We can fix this by dividing each of the probabilities by the summed total and that way all will equal 100%.

Using Derek's 2011 overal statistics, home/away split statistics, and May split statistics, we can estime how many hits per game he will get and when hit #3,000 will occur.



All three statistics suggest it will happen in the first or second game of the Cubs series!

So far this season, Derek has come to bat 4.75 times per game with walks, HBP, etc, he gets 4.23 AB/G. It's possible that Derek could take a more aggressive approach at the plate as he pursues hit #3,000 during the ten game homestand from June 7-16 because he would like to reach the milestone in front of the home crowd before the six game road trip. Failing to reach the milestone could put the Yankees in a bad spot; when Stan Musial was one hit away from 3,000, the Cardinals were playing in Chicago and the team rested Musial so he could get the hit at home. Unfortunately, the game was close and the Cards needed a hit and Musial was called to duty and delivered the hit. If Jeter struggles, the Yankees could be in a similar position coming back from the trip in Cincinnati.

If Derek were to reach hit #3,000 in these series, he would need to have averages at least this high.



Now Derek has struggled this year, but he has only had three instances of not recording a hit in back to back games; He hasn't had three 0fers in a row yet and his worst stretch of the season came over a seven game stretch from May 11 to May 17 where he went 4/31.

I wouldn't touch the Red Sox or Indians odds and unless Derek really commits to not walking and tries to get that hit at home, I think the Rangers series is unlikely as well. I would put my money on the Cubs series and might put a little on the Reds series.

Updated MLB Season Wins Totals

Back again with the nearly bi-monthly look at the new MLB regular season wins numbers from Sportsbetting.com. All are -120/-120 except the Cubs who are 100/-130.



It seems like every time I do this exercise, the numbers say to take the Angels under. Dan Haren and especially Jered Weaver are coming down from their ridiculous starts and the lack of offensive is coming through. The AL West is so weak though and I could see all the teams ending up around .500.

Amazingly, the Phillies number continues to increase. Before the season, under 97 was one of the most popular bets out there. The Phillies are playing at about that pace now and it will have to continue from here on out. I'd still bet the under.

The Rockies O 82.5 isn't a bad play either. Their stars aren't playing as well as they can right now and I'd certainly expect them to end up with closer to 90 than 80 wins. Ubaldo pitched well last night and it might be the start of one of their signature runs. I think this is a good buy low opportunity on them.

Improving ESPN's Franchise Player Draft

ESPN.com had an afternoon long feature today that brought baseball writers and analysts from inside and outside ESPN together to draft the 30 franchise players in baseball. The results are here. As with anything that brings baseball minds from the saber and non-saber spheres together, there were a number of head scratching picks. While I liked the idea, there are a number of ways it can be improved.

First, there needs to be clearly defined rules. The only instructions given (at least for the public) for the ESPN draft was, "who would be your franchise player?" This is pretty open ended. Obviously, the goal of any major league team is to win games, but bringing the "franchise player" into the discussion could bring other goals like marketability to the forefront. So the first improvement is to say the only goal is to maximize wins over the life of the league.

Next, the issue of money and salaries is often more important than player skill. We know this is true because year after year, the 25 best players in an organization do not make the major league team. Rather, top prospects, who are ready to contribute now, are kept in the minors to decrease service time and miss the dreaded super two classification. It's not exactly clear if salaries were accounted for in the ESPN draft. At one point the moderator, David Kull, says (at 12:06), "Contract status has no bearing on this draft." But then Karl Ravech uses Tulowitzki's contract as a reason for picking him first overall (at 12:15). As Mike Fast pointed out on Twitter, selecting younger prospects with cost controlled years left was a good strategy. There's an easy way to fix this. Wipe out every player's existing salary and allow participants to offer each player contracts with varying years and values. If each drafter is given a set budget (I'd suggest a PV lump sum), drafters can build a team of players that can be evaluated on both future performance and cost. Doing an auction draft like this would require the player pool to be expanded to more than 30 players, but the 30 highest paid players could be seen as the franchise players (even if two are on one team).

I'd be really interested in seeing a panel of experts doing this exercise. I think the results would be slightly different than the ESPN snake draft and it would be fun to see what type of contracts prospects like Mike Trout and Bryce Harper would merit.

For reference, here are the 30 top WAR leaders from 2006-2011.


How many of these guys would have been selected back in the 2006 draft? Some of them- Pujols, A-Rod, Wright, Beltran, etc- would have been sure fire picks. Tim Lincecum was drafted this week and given the concerns about his motion and size, it's extremely doubtful he would have been picked. It's also likely a draft would have included Andruw Jones, Ryan Howard, Vernon Wells, and Travis Hafner to name a few. Likewise, sitting atop the 2006 pitching WAR leaderboard were a quartet of young pitchers who surely would have merited serious consideration- Johan Santana, Brandon Webb, Jeremy Bonderman, and John Lackey.

Everyone knows projecting the future is a fool's exercise at best. It's hard enough to project what a player will do this year (see Asdrubal Cabrera, Lance Berkman, etc), let alone for the foreseeable future. Given the task, however, I would like to see a group tackle this in a more scientific way: We all know auction fantasy drafts are superior to snake drafts.

Updated Projections of Derek Jeter's 3,000th Hit

It's no secret that Derek Jeter is limping towards the 3,000 hit mark. I looked at some of the odds offered a couple of weeks ago in this post. Here are some of the current odds offered by sbet:



If the schedule holds (and with all the rainouts this year, that would have plus odds), the Yankees will play game 61 on June 10th at home against the Indians. If you recall, in the previous post on Jeter's 3,000th hit, sbet offered odds for specific dates, June 8th was one of the dates. It appears to be a near certainty that he will not record his 3,000th hit by then as he is 32 hits away and the Yankees have 19 games in that time span. Will the extra two games offered by this bet change the outlook?

No. Projecting Jeter forward using Baseball Prospectus's Depth Charts, the ZiPS in season projections, and his current pace all point to him recording his 3,000th hit at least six games after game #61.



Pace: 71-73 @Reds
BP: 67 vs Rangers, 68-69 @Cubs
ZiPS: 70 @Cubs, 71-72 @Reds

The opponent odds suggest that the market believes Derek will improve his current pace and even outhit BP's and ZiPS's projections since the Red Sox (Games 58-60, +300) and Indians (61-64, +450) have much shorter odds than the Cubs (68-70, +900) and Reds (71-73, +1200). It would be quite an upset if Jeter recorded the hit before game 61.5. Out of 39 games played, he has only had more than two hits twice. If he gets four ABs/G for the next 21 games (through game 61), he would have to hit .381 to get his 3,000th hit. There is absolutely zero statistical evidence to suggest he can do this.

Updated MLB Season Wins Totals

I last looked at these on April 12th. Since then, the Indians have continued to surprise and currently have a .667 winning percentage. Also in the AL Central, the Twins have been the worst team in baseball and the White Sox have been massive underachievers. Here's what the new numbers look like. The odds come from sbet and BP's numbers are from the playoff odds section. The chart also shows the change in the odds, how many wins the team would finish with by playing at its current pace, and the winning percentage it needs to play with the rest of the way to meet its number.

• Although Cleveland has been a great story, I still have significant concerns about their ability to continue to pitch this well going forward: It is very feasible they play below .400 baseball the rest of the way.
• The Cardinals, besides Pujols and Carpenter, have looked outstanding thus far. If the season ended today, Berkman and Garcia would be top three finishers in the MVP and Cy Young voting. That being said, unless Pujols and Carpenter turn it around, the team should regress a bit. Kyle McClellan's 4.2 K/9 is going to catch up to him eventually and Kyle Lohse will not continue to pitch one run baseball every time. That being said, I think they are a .500 team when all is said and done.
• The Phillies and their anemic offense continue to be an attractive play. 
•  My favorite number on the board is the Astros. The Astros are not a very good baseball team. Brett Wallace and Jason Bourgeosis have combined for 1.4 WAR. Amazingly, Wallace's .388 BABIP isn't the higher of the two as Bourgeosis's is .440. Additionally, the Astros lead the majors in blown saves with 11. Look for the Astros to be aggressive sellers at the deadline as new ownership looks to build its own team. 

The NFL Lockout and Sports Media

Did you know there's an NFL lockout going on? Of course you did, it's the BIGGEST news on the planet according to most sports media outlets. I've stopped watching Sportscenter because of the constant NFL lockout or The Ohio State controversy coverage. There's only so many times I can hear reporter x say, essentially, "Nothing new to report". However, try as I might to avoid being exposed to it, Twitter (or as Ben Bernanke would say, "the tweeter") has made it unavoidable. 

Jason Whitlock and Mike Florio touched on this issue over Twitter and on PFT Live on May 16th. Whitlock started the debate by saying that media members with significant salaries should disclose their biases when covering the lockout. He asserted that the salaries of media members have become so high that the potential risk of losing that salary is affected their coverage of the lockout. Florio then shot back with a personal attack on Whitlock before clearly stating his stance:

Now I have no knowledge of, nor do I care about the salaries involved. From the PFT Live discussion, this seems to be Whitlock's main focus. I think Whitlock has a good point, but he is focusing on the wrong aspect of the situation. To me, the bigger point of contention is that either Florio is lying in the above tweets or he fails to realize how any type of business works. 

For Florio to feel that the long-term growth and interest of the game should be important to him is, using his words, "borderline idiotic". I consider myself a casual football fan and I admit that I have little knowledge on how long PFT has been around. I realize that at the moment it's an incredibly influential website and an essential stop for anyone following the NFL. But let's be realistic, had anyone heard of or used PFT ten years ago? The media, as with any business, changes in completely random and unpredictable ways. Newspapers never imagined that the internet would be as problematic to their business model as it has or else they would have never put content online for free. Similarly, in the past three to four years, Twitter, Facebook, and other social media outlets are completely changing the way everything is covered, just look at Osama Bin Laden's killing. I'd heavily wager against PFT and most other blogs being as influential in five, let alone ten, years as they are today. While every businessman should consider the long run perspective of his actions, for something as random and dynamic as the media, short term interests should be paramount. 

Florio showed how distorted his views are on the PFT Live segment. These are some quotes (paraphrased) from the discussion.

"Don't you think all hell is going to break loose if we miss week 1?"

"The NFL has engineered the schedule to honor victims of 9-11 on the 10th Anniversary. Football was tied into the event as it happened during football season and guys ran out with flags. If games aren't played won't the fans be mad?"

"Football provides a diversion for a lot of people from whatever they do"

In addition to these one liners, Florio continually harped on his desire for football to replace baseball as America's Pasttime. It doesn't take much effort to break these down:

1. No, hell won't break loose if a season, let alone one week of NFL games aren't played. I'd like to think Florio was exaggerating a bit here, but after listening to the whole discussion, I don't think that's the case. The NFL is certainly a large entity with revenue around $8 billion. No one believes football will be going away forever, but it's certainly possible it could be going away for a little while. Lehman Brothers and Bear Stearns collectively held about $1 trillion in assets and disappeared essentially overnight. When those two went under, it was a mess, but hell did not break loose. The NFL is pennies compared to that. Most of the world wouldn't notice a thing, hardly anyone's life would be affected. 

2. To invoke 9-11 in this argument is ludicrous and Whitlock immediately fired back criticizing the NFL for marketing a military connection. Florio's use of this argument is just as ridiculous. Did he see the people celebrating Bin Laden's death across the country? The last thing on those people's mind was a football game. To argue that the emotions and feelings on 9-11-11 will be affected by whether or not there are football games is "borderline idiotic".

3. Not much to add here, it's too easy to list a whole bunch of ways people divert themselves from everyday life. 

Another lockout commentary that caught by eye, technically ear, was given by Rich Eisen on his April 5th podcast with Gabe Feldman, the NFL Network's legal analyst. This interview was conducted leading up to Susan Nelson's decision to temporarily end the lockout, so that is where Eisen began. This is what he says about the judge and her future ruling (paraphrased again):

"How much press is she reading? She has to know the magnitude and how many people are on pins and needles...Heads up, this is a pretty damn big deal and people will be stamping their feet for a ruling...Does that affect the speed of a ruling?"

Again, this is almost as bad as Florio. The Judiciary system will treats every case with the upmost importance. Again, to put this in prospective, we are talking about letting people play a game. There have been far more important and far reaching court decisions than Susan Nelson's decision about the NFL lockout. It's incredibly misguided to believe that because people want a ruling ASAP the court will alter its typical way of doing business. To complement Feldman, he did a great job of not pointing out how ridiculous these statements are. But Eisen wasn't done as he got worked up about people saying it's not a big deal that the lockout is happening now because no games are being missed. Not so fast said Mr. Eisen: Tons of stuff, most notably workouts and free agency are going down the tubes. This plays right into Whitlock's argument. Eisen gets paid to cover this stuff, this stuff isn't happening, therefore he's upset. Finally, Eisen concludes by asking Feldman about the National Labor Relations Board's potential involvement. He was not pleased when Feldman said it could take months or years for the Board to conduct an investigation:

"What are they doing? What are they investigating? Hit Lexus-Nexus and get one million articles about it. What's deeper? We know where the relevant parties are, why don't they talk to them?"

The lack of prospective and understanding of how governmental investigations work is almost as astounding as referencing Lexus-Nexus ahead of Google. Needless to say, this was the last Rich Eisen podcast I listened to. 

This discussion brings me to a more general commentary on sports media as a whole. I claim that sports and everything around sports, the media included, is in/has gone through a golden age. Team valuations and in turn league revenues (mainly from TV) have reached previously unthinkable levels. Much like the Dutch tulip craze and the tech and housing bubbles, things do not increase in value forever (unless you invested with Bernie Madoff). It's silly to think that sports are not subject to the same forces. It's possible we have seen the beginning of the downfall as MLB attendance this season is noticeably down for almost every team. It's often said that the top of the bubble is reached when no one thinks it is a bubble and things will continue to move ahead at the status quo or better. This is exactly what is happening in sports. 

The latest sports TV rights contract was between the Pac-10 conference and ESPN and Fox for broadcast rights for football games. The agreement covers 12 years and pays around $250 million per year. People fail to realize how stupid this is on the side of ESPN and Fox as they have committed themselves to this for over a decade. Just go back one decade and imagine what sports coverage was like and how radically different it is now. No one could have predicted how Tivo, the internet, and tablets and smartphones have changed every aspect of the coverage. 

That's just from a macro prospective, but on a micro prospective, this is also a bad deal for the networks. College football could certainly lose popularity and I would argue that based on some of the issues with college sports, let alone the issues specific to football (Bowl System), this is significantly non-zero probability. Any sports team that ties itself to a player for ten years is scoffed at and the contract will likely end up as a net loss for the team, so why should these situations be viewed any differently? 

It's my opinion that every type of media outlet, but specifically sports, is bloated and could trim significant fat without losing much in the way of coverage. The idea that ESPN employees people to scour the internet for sabermetric ideas then "translate and explain" those ideas to the on air "analysts" is laughable. It reminds me of the scene from the greatest movie of all time, Office Space, where Tom interviews with the Bobs:

Classic. A second example that I'm familiar with is the coverage of my favorite baseball team. Despite the hometown newspaper's operating difficulties, it employees three people whose full time job is to cover the team. There are also additional sports editors and columnists who contribute as well. In addition, there are at least eight to ten other fulltime local media members, let alone the national baseball crop. There are twenty five people on a baseball team, but if you listened to or watched the coverage, you'd have a hard time naming six because most of the players don't do anything interesting. It's hilarious to watch the media crowd around one player's locker and ask him hardscrabble journalism questions like, "what were you thinking when that ball was hit?" Nationals outfielder Roger Bernadina recently provided my all time favorite answer to this, "Shit".

Research in Motion

A perennial favorite in the tech industry, Research in Motion (RIMM), has fallen out of favor with investors ahead of the release of its new Playbook tablet on Tuesday. This is seemingly perplexing to CEO Mike Lazaridis. He told the New York Times:

Why is it that people don’t appreciate our profits? Why is it that people don’t appreciate our growth? Why is it that people don’t appreciate the fact that we spent the last four years going global? Why is it that people don’t appreciate that we have 500 carriers in 170 countries with products in almost 30 languages? I don’t fully understand why there’s this negative sentiment. 

Well, Mike, I've got an answer for you: You became complacent with your core product (Blackberry) and are now scrambling and attempting to enter a market with an unrefined product. In managerial accounting, there's something an industry/market size variance. Basically, it tells a manager how much his sales have expanded due to his company's success vs. the overall market expanding. Based on this table showing RIMM losing 5% of the smartphone marketshare in the last four months, I'd wager that most of the growth he mentions is due to the industry expanding faster than RIMM is losing its share. 

Five years ago, before the iPhone and Android, whatever iteration of the Blackberry was unquestionably the best smartphone available. Sure, there were a small number of people using Treos, but most power users were on Blackberries. RIMM had developed a method that was fast and secure, and the Blackberry was the preferred phone by many corporations. RIMM owned this market. With that established, it began to try to win over the consumer market. Consumers, like myself, wanted access to our email from wherever we were. We also wanted access to the internet for sports scores, news, etc. 

RIMM was able to successfully bring over the email from the corporate side. In addition, BBM is a cult hit amongst Blackberry users, so much to the point that some people carry around a Blackberry only to BBM. I've never owned a Blackberry, so I can't attest to the greatness of BBM, but I can't imagine how much better it is than a quick email or text. (The rumor of RIMM bringing BBM to iOS and Android would be extremely detrimental to the company). While RIMM has a hit in that department, it has struggled in most others. Blackberries have never had a full functioning browser. People complain about the lack of flash support in iOS, but the amount of stuff you can do on iOS Safari blows the Blackberry mobile browser out of the water. It's noteworthy that on the current Blackberry Curve product page, web browsing capability isn't even mentioned on the feature list. The bigger problem with the Blackberry phones is the lack of apps. RIMM has basically ignored the concept of an app as its UI and phones are so difficult to develop for that all but the biggest developers ignore the platform. It's gotten so bad for the Blackberry App World that RIMM is going to allow users to download Android apps in the near future. I have a PS3 for the sole purpose of playing MLB the Show. If I could play MLB the Show, a PS3 game, on my Xbox, I wouldn't a PS3. 

That brings us to the Playbook which RIMM debuted last September. At the time, there was a lot of positive vibe surrounding the announcement. RIMM had just acquired QNX and added TAT in December. Both companies brought a good reputation of developing outstanding software platforms and UI platforms. As this was and remains the major problem for the Blackberry smartphones, everything looked to be moving in the right direction. I, however, was still skeptical. RIMM had never pushed out a successful major hardware or software upgrade. The last time it tried to step significantly outside its comfort zone was the launch of the Storm, the first touch screen phone, in summer of 2009. It was terrible. Since then, I have doubted RIMM's ability to put out cutting edge products. 

The reviews of the Playbook were released earlier this week and reviewers have been lukewarm thus far. Virtually everyone agrees the user interface is very slick and the hardware is much great. The problem is what can the Playbook really do? It turns out, not much. It has no data connection. It has no app store. Incredibly, it has no email app. Let me repeat: It has no email app. The only way to get email on your Playbook is to use the web browser or connect it to your Blackberry phone. I don't understand how a product can be in development for at least the last 16 months and have no email app. Particularly from a company like RIMM that was built on its email functionality. If I were designing any kind of a mobile computing product, an email app (let alone Facebook, Twitter, etc) would be one of the first things I designed. The other problem with RIMM's "solution" to an email app is that in order to fully utilize your new Playbook, you must have a Blackberry. They're already restricting their market to those Blackberry users who don't already have an iPad! Is there really a great opportunity here? 

The other complaint I have with the Playbook is the whole idea of it. RIMM has to have known that its core smartphone marketshare has been under attack for the last 2-3 years by Apple and Google and now Microsoft (by way of Nokia) is entering the fray. The smartphone is RIMM's bread and butter: It was the first there and has a great product. Why is RIMM choosing to abandon this in favor of a tablet? There are two schools of thought here. First, from a strategic standpoint, we can talk about core competency. RIMM's core competency is delivering email to phones. It isn't designing consumer electronic devices (that would be Apple). What's the one point that's missing from the Playbook? Email! Second, costs of product development are very high. I am sure RIMM has invested a lot in the development of the Playbook and it will likely be able to recover most of these from sales. The less visible cost (and more important in my opinion) is the opportunity cost of developing the Playbook. RIMM had its top brainpower and enlisted the services of its two new subsidiaries to develop the Playbook for the past 16-24 months. What if this effort had been focused on improving the Blackberry phone? We could be talking about RIMM introducing a killer new phone that had an incredible OS. Alas, RIMM felt an underdeveloped tablet was the better route. 

RIMM's "effort" with the Playbook reminds me a lot of a classic episode of Southpark:

RIMM has designed a potentially great product in a growing marketplace, but it clearly has no idea of how to get from designing the product to making money off a product. Buying companies like QNX and TAT won't help RIMM determine what people want in a tablet computer. iOS really hasn't changed that much since Apple opened it to developers in 2008. Sure, a rudimentary form of multitasking was introduced, but it's a far cry from the multitasking offered by the Playbook, among others. Apple, however, has a fantastic idea of what people want: They want a device that allows them to do a ton of things (apps) in a simple and intuitive way. Apple doesn't have the technically superior products in either the smartphone or tablet market, yet they will dominate it. RIMM needs to pay more attention to the Blackberry. If some of the rumors are true and it opens BBM to any UI and allows Android apps to run on Blackberries, what is the point? More and more corporations are supporting the iPhone and Android devices. Once this market is gone, RIMM will be obsolete. 

Whether it's entirely due to Steve Jobs, or not, Apple "gets" it. If the underpants gnomes applied Apple's methodology, they would be profitable in whatever line of business they operated in. Until RIMM changes its methodology, it's going to be stuck in neutral. There is a growing pile of evidence that suggests new or different management could be very helpful in this arena, but it will always be difficult to get rid of the founder of a company.